24 October 2026, 10:15 UTC

Piast Gliwice vs Cracovia Krakow Ekstraklasa prediction & result

Stadion Miejski w Gliwicach, Gliwice
Referee: Pawel Malec, Poland
Full time3 – 1

Final score: Piast Gliwice 3-1 Cracovia Krakow.

Before kick-off the model made it 50% Piast Gliwice, 26% draw, 24% Cracovia Krakow — fair odds of 2.00, 3.85 and 4.17.

Most likely scoreline: 1-0.

The model called the result correctly.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

Piast Gliwice at 50%: of 1,648 settled 50–65% forecasts, 58.6% came in (average 55.4%). It can be read literally. The full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

Piast Gliwice97%Draw3%Cracovia Krakow0%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 4 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

⚽Jakub Czerwińskiassist: Quentin Boisgard
7'
⚽Hugo Vallejoassist: Szczepan·Mucha
25'
Szczepan·Mucha
45'
🔁Jakub Czerwińskiout: Francisco Sierralta
45'
45'
🔁Dijon Kameriout: Mateusz Klich
🔁Szczepan·Muchaout: Oskar·Lesniak
45'
48'
Otar Kakabadze
56'
•Mateusz Klich
57'
Mateusz Klich
62'
⚽Karol Knapassist: Otar Kakabadze
🔁Jakub Labojkoout: Ivan Lima
72'
78'
🔁Amir Al-Ammariout: Kahveh Zahiroleslam
79'
🔁Mohamed Berteout: Ajdin Hasić
Ivan Lima
83'
🔁Samuel Ntamack Ndimbaout: Maciej Kucharski
85'
90'
🔁Vincent Burletout: Mauro Perković
🔁Leandro Mário Baldé Sancaout: Andreas Katsantonis
90'
90'
🔁Brahim Traoréout: Kamil Glik
⚽Andreas Katsantonis
90+4'
Quentin Boisgard
90+7'

Match stats — Piast Gliwice vs Cracovia Krakow

55%Possession45%
18Shots13
7On target5
4Corners4
1.78xG1.54

Goals against chances

Piast Gliwice3 from 1.78 xGmore than the chances were worth
Cracovia Krakow1 from 1.54 xGless than the chances were worth

Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.

Line-ups

Piast Gliwice 4-4-2
  • 75D. GrilG
  • 99E. TwumasiD
  • 5Juande RivasD
  • 4J. CzerwińskiD
  • 36J. LewickiD
  • 77S. MuchaM
  • 27J. ŁabojkoM
  • 17Q. BoisgardM
  • 80Hugo VallejoM
  • 19S. Ntamack NdimbaF
  • 11Leandro SancaF
Substitutes
  • 7Jorge FélixF
  • 28F. BorowskiD
  • 47J. GrelichG
  • 10A. KatsantonisF
  • 31O. LeśniakM
  • 90Ivan LimaM
  • 18O. MaziarzM
  • 12Marcel Mendes-DudzińskiG
  • 15L. PitanD
Coach: D. Myśliwiec
Cracovia Krakow 4-4-2
  • 13S. MadejskiG
  • 25O. KakabadzeD
  • 4G. HenrikssonD
  • 61B. TraoréD
  • 28V. BurletD
  • 70D. KameriM
  • 20K. KnapM
  • 6Amir Al AmmariM
  • 17M. MinchevM
  • 90M. BerteF
  • 11L. NordåsF
Substitutes
  • 77J. ChrapustaG
  • 29W. DejM
  • 15K. GlikD
  • 14A. HasićM
  • 43M. KlichM
  • 39M. PerkovićD
  • 79D. PiłaD
  • 5B. SelanM
  • 18Kahveh ZahiroleslamF
Coach: B. Grzelak

Form going into Piast Gliwice vs Cracovia Krakow

Piast Gliwice

Ekstraklasa

  • D1-1away to Gornik Zabrze18 October 2026
  • W2-1Widzew Łódź11 October 2026

Cracovia Krakow

Ekstraklasa

  • D1-1Legia Warszawa17 October 2026
  • W3-1Zaglebie Lubin10 October 2026

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

Ekstraklasa table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
7Piast Gliwice146442420+422
15Cracovia Krakow143381623-712

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: Piast Gliwice vs Cracovia Krakow

  • 27 February 2026Cracovia Krakow 2–3 Piast GliwiceEkstraklasa
  • 24 August 2025Piast Gliwice 0–0 Cracovia KrakowEkstraklasa
  • 8 December 2024Piast Gliwice 0–0 Cracovia KrakowEkstraklasa
  • 21 July 2024Cracovia Krakow 1–1 Piast GliwiceEkstraklasa
  • 23 February 2024Piast Gliwice 0–0 Cracovia KrakowEkstraklasa
  • 21 August 2023Cracovia Krakow 1–1 Piast GliwiceEkstraklasa

Leading scorers: Piast Gliwice and Cracovia Krakow

Piast Gliwice

GoalsAssists

  • Hugo Vallejo51

Cracovia Krakow

GoalsAssists

  • A. Hasić72

Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.

The result against the call

Piast Gliwice beat Cracovia Krakow 3–1. The model had made a win for Piast Gliwice its most likely outcome, at 50%, so the call held; the score it named was 1–0. The goals: Jakub Czerwiński 7' for Piast Gliwice, Hugo Vallejo 25' for Piast Gliwice, Karol Knap 62' for Cracovia Krakow, Andreas Katsantonis 90+4' for Piast Gliwice. On expected goals it finished 1.78–1.54.

What this result changed

Before kick-off the season simulation gave Cracovia Krakow a 19.4% chance to finish in the bottom three: 13.0% after a win, 18.3% after a draw, 21.8% after a defeat. The defeat was the worst of those results for them, and left the figure at 21.8%, 2.4 points higher than before the match.

Read from our Ekstraklasa season simulation as it stood before this match (10,000 runs), counting this result alone. Every result since then has moved the table again, so today's figure is on the competition page.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.