Stade Brestois 29 vs Nice Ligue 1 prediction & result
Final score: Stade Brestois 29 1-2 Nice.
Before kick-off the model made it 48% Stade Brestois 29, 27% draw, 25% Nice — fair odds of 2.08, 3.70 and 4.00.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0.
The model got this one wrong.
Published
All Ligue 1 (France) predictions →
Has the model earned this number?
Stade Brestois 29 at 48%: of 2,957 settled 40–50% forecasts, 46.1% came in (average 43.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 3 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Stade Brestois 29 vs Nice
Goals against chances
Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.
Line-ups
- 1E. SelvikG
- 70K. LalaD
- 29L. TousartD
- 4G. LlorisD
- 2B. LockoD
- 13J. ChotardM
- 8H. MagnettiM
- 17Mama BaldéM
- 23K. DoumbiaM
- 9P. MboupM
- 19L. AjorqueF
- 18J. BourgaultD
- 39D. N´GuessanF
- 7J. Nonge BoendeM
- 30M. PatouilletG
- 20L. ZogbeD
- 21Ibrahim Yayiya KanteF
- 11N. EdjoumaF
- 6M. DiambouM
- 32L. C. Laine M.F
- 23Y. DioufG
- 36A. SeiduD
- 55Y. NdayishimiyeD
- 5Mohamed AbdelmonemD
- 92J. ClaussM
- 28A. WitselM
- 6H. BoudaouiM
- 27N. NkounkouM
- 7G. HeinM
- 9M. AmouraM
- 11E. WahiF
- 39D. CoulibalyM
- 10S. DiopM
- 21I. JanssonF
- 84H. KoutouneD
- 35X. Mandza TsiendiM
- 41D. MoranaF
- 29N. NgoumouF
- 77T. BoulhendiG
- 8M. SansonM
Form going into Stade Brestois 29 vs Nice
Stade Brestois 29
Ligue 1
- D1-1away to Lille17 October 2026
- W5-1Angers10 October 2026
Nice
Ligue 1
- L1-2away to Lyon18 October 2026
- W2-1Strasbourg11 October 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
Ligue 1 table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9 | Stade Brestois 29 | 10 | 4 | 3 | 3 | 18 | 12 | +6 | 15 |
| 6 | Nice | 10 | 5 | 2 | 3 | 15 | 12 | +3 | 17 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Nice vs Stade Brestois 29
Nice and Stade Brestois 29 have met 7 times in the records we hold, Nice has won 3 of them to Stade Brestois 29's 1, with 3 drawn.
The record
Nice won the last one 2–1 on 23 Oct 2026.
| Club | W | D | L | GF | GA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nice | 3 | 3 | 1 | 12 | 7 |
| Stade Brestois 29 | 1 | 3 | 3 | 7 | 12 |
Between them these 7 meetings produced 19 goals, an average of 2.71 a game.
Every meeting
Every recorded meeting, newest first.
- 23 Oct 2026
Ligue 1Stade Brestois 29 1–2 Nice - 1 Feb 2026
Ligue 1Nice 2–2 Stade Brestois 29 - 20 Sep 2025
Ligue 1Stade Brestois 29 4–1 Nice - 17 May 2025
Ligue 1Nice 6–0 Stade Brestois 29 - 2 Nov 2024
Ligue 1Stade Brestois 29 0–1 Nice - 4 Feb 2024
Ligue 1Stade Brestois 29 0–0 Nice - 1 Oct 2023
Ligue 1Nice 0–0 Stade Brestois 29
How the model rates them now
On the current ratings, Stade Brestois 29's attack rates 12% above Nice's, and the two defences are almost level. How the ratings are derived.
| Club | Attack | Defence |
|---|---|---|
| Nice | 0.89 | 1.03 |
| Stade Brestois 29 | 1.00 | 1.05 |
Leading scorers: Stade Brestois 29 and Nice
Stade Brestois 29
GoalsAssists
- L. Ajorque51
- K. Doumbia42
Nice
GoalsAssists
- E. Wahi62
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
The result against the call
Nice won 2–1 at Stade Brestois 29. The model had leaned towards a win for Stade Brestois 29 at 48% and given a win for Nice 25%. At that figure it expects the outcome about once in every 4 matches like this one. The goals: Ludovic Ajorque 15' for Stade Brestois 29, Sepe Elye Wahi 61' for Nice, Sofiane Diop 83' for Nice. On expected goals it finished 2.57–0.50.
What this result changed
Before kick-off the season simulation gave Nice a 11.6% chance to finish in the bottom two: 7.0% after a win, 10.1% after a draw, 13.6% after a defeat. The win was the best of those results for them, and left the figure at 7.0%, 4.6 points lower than before the match.
Read from our Ligue 1 season simulation as it stood before this match (10,000 runs), counting this result alone. Every result since then has moved the table again, so today's figure is on the competition page.
How the call on Stade Brestois 29 v Nice has moved
First published on 9 Oct at 45% / 28% / 27% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 4 updates, it read 48% / 27% / 25%: the biggest move is Stade Brestois 29's chance of winning, up 3 points.
- Stade Brestois 29 win48%▲ +3
- Draw27%▼ −1
- Nice win25%▼ −2
Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.