18 October 2026, 14:30 UTC

MSV Duisburg vs FC Viktoria Köln 3. Liga prediction & result

Schauinsland-Reisen-Arena, Duisburg
Referee: Cristian Ballweg
Full time1 – 1

Final score: MSV Duisburg 1-1 FC Viktoria Köln.

Before kick-off the model made it 49% MSV Duisburg, 25% draw, 26% FC Viktoria Köln — fair odds of 2.04, 4.00 and 3.85.

Most likely scoreline: 2-1.

The model got this one wrong.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

MSV Duisburg at 49%: of 2,957 settled 40–50% forecasts, 46.1% came in (average 43.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

MSV Duisburg5%Draw91%FC Viktoria Köln4%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 2 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

⚽Conor Noss
28'
44'
Taylan Duman
niklas jessen
52'
61'
🔁Yannick Aime Tonyeout: Kilian Jakob
🔁niklas jessenout: Peter Remmert
63'
🔁Conor Nossout: Ramien Safi
63'
73'
⚽Taylan Duman
🔁Frederik Christensenout: Can Coskun
74'
🔁Dominik Kotherout: Florian Krüger
74'
81'
🔁David Ottoout: Noah Maboulou
81'
🔁Niklas Horst Castelleout: Jakob Sachse
🔁Lex-Tyger Lobingerout: Max Besuschkow
90'
90+2'
Niklas Swider
Rasim Bulic
90+5'
90+5'
Tim kloss

Match stats — MSV Duisburg vs FC Viktoria Köln

40%Possession60%
3Shots8
2On target5
2Corners4

Line-ups

MSV Duisburg 5-4-1
  • 1M. BrauneG
  • 20N. JessenD
  • 29J. BitterD
  • 5T. FlecksteinD
  • 40B. SchlickeD
  • 3F. ChristensenD
  • 14C. NoßM
  • 8A. CasarM
  • 6R. BulićM
  • 11D. KotherM
  • 9L. LobingerF
Substitutes
  • 17M. BesuschkowM
  • 27C. CoşkunD
  • 4Martin EnsD
  • 26F. KrügerF
  • 39P. RemmertF
  • 19Ramien SafiF
  • 33T. StahlG
  • 37P. SussekM
Coach: D. Hirsch
FC Viktoria Köln 3-4-3
  • 1A. SchulzG
  • 19M. SponselD
  • 6T. EisenhuthD
  • 18Tim KlossD
  • 28P. FallmannM
  • 8T. DumanM
  • 20Niklas SwiderM
  • 7Y. TonyeM
  • 44N. CastelleF
  • 10D. OttoF
  • 21L. WolfF
Substitutes
  • 24J. AmannM
  • 11E. GueyeM
  • 16N. JahnM
  • 26K. JakobD
  • 37N. Le BretF
  • 17M. PledlM
  • 9J. SachseF
  • 22V. BoboyD
  • 12D. WyciokG
Coach: M. Wilhelm

Form going into MSV Duisburg vs FC Viktoria Köln

MSV Duisburg

3. Liga

  • W4-2away to FC Saarbrücken13 October 2026

FC Viktoria Köln

3. Liga

  • D2-2SG Sonnenhof Grossaspach14 October 2026

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

3. Liga table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
2MSV Duisburg139223318+1529
1FC Viktoria Köln139223618+1829

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: MSV Duisburg vs FC Viktoria Köln

  • 16 May 2026MSV Duisburg 1–1 FC Viktoria Köln3. Liga
  • 21 December 2025FC Viktoria Köln 0–0 MSV Duisburg3. Liga
  • 17 February 2024MSV Duisburg 1–0 FC Viktoria Köln3. Liga
  • 23 September 2023FC Viktoria Köln 2–0 MSV Duisburg3. Liga
  • 17 April 2023FC Viktoria Köln 2–2 MSV Duisburg3. Liga
  • 22 October 2022MSV Duisburg 1–1 FC Viktoria Köln3. Liga

Leading scorers: MSV Duisburg and FC Viktoria Köln

MSV Duisburg

GoalsAssists

  • L. Lobinger44
  • P. Remmert40

FC Viktoria Köln

GoalsAssists

  • D. Otto55
  • N. Castelle52

Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.

The result against the call

MSV Duisburg and FC Viktoria Köln drew 1–1. The model had leaned towards a win for MSV Duisburg at 49% and given a draw 25%. At that figure it expects the outcome about once in every 4 matches like this one. The goals: Conor Noss 28' for MSV Duisburg, Taylan Duman 73' for FC Viktoria Köln.

What this result changed

Before kick-off the season simulation gave MSV Duisburg a 58.3% chance to win the league: 63.9% after a win, 55.0% after a draw, 48.5% after a defeat. The draw was the middle one of the three, and left the figure at 55.0%, 3.3 points lower than before the match.

For FC Viktoria Köln the question was the chance to finish in the top four, 65.5% going in: 73.3% after a win, 66.9% after a draw, 61.8% after a defeat. The draw was the middle one of the three, and left the figure at 66.9%, 1.4 points higher than before the match.

Read from our 3. Liga season simulation as it stood before this match (10,000 runs), counting this result alone. Every result since then has moved the table again, so today's figure is on the competition page.

How the call on MSV Duisburg v FC Viktoria Köln has moved

First published on 3 Oct at 44% / 29% / 27% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 5 updates, it read 49% / 25% / 26%: the biggest move is MSV Duisburg's chance of winning, up 5 points.

  1. MSV Duisburg win49%▲ +5
  2. Draw25%▼ −4
  3. FC Viktoria Köln win26%▼ −1

Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.