18 October 2026, 11:30 UTC

Dynamo Dresden vs 1. FC Magdeburg 2. Bundesliga prediction & result

Rudolf-Harbig-Stadion, Dresden
Referee: Robin Braun
Full time2 – 0

Final score: Dynamo Dresden 2-0 1. FC Magdeburg.

Before kick-off the model made it 35% Dynamo Dresden, 25% draw, 40% 1. FC Magdeburg — fair odds of 2.86, 4.00 and 2.50.

Most likely scoreline: 1-2.

The model got this one wrong.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

1. FC Magdeburg at 40%: of 2,957 settled 40–50% forecasts, 46.1% came in (average 43.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

Dynamo Dresden99%Draw1%1. FC Magdeburg0%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 2 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

•Nicolai Rapp
6'
⚽Niklas Hauptmann (pen)
9'
⚽Simon Straudi
50'
55'
🔁Herbert Bockhornout: Alexander Nollenberger
55'
🔁Luka Hyryläinenout: Felipe Chávez
🔁Ben Bobzienout: Jakob Lemmer
72'
77'
🔁Moritz-Broni Kwartengout: Magnus Elias Walther Baars
🔁Nicolai Rappout: Ahmet Muhamedbegovic
80'
🔁Vincent Vermeijout: Nils Fröling
81'
Ahmet Muhamedbegovic
85'
🔁Niklas Hauptmannout: Luca Herrmann
87'
🔁Patrice Čovićout: Kaan Inanoglu
87'
87'
🔁Mateusz Zukowskiout: Roko Simic
87'
🔁Pierre Nadjombeout: Richmond Tachie

Match stats — Dynamo Dresden vs 1. FC Magdeburg

40%Possession60%
12Shots14
6On target4
3Corners0
2.13xG0.93

Goals against chances

Dynamo Dresden2 from 2.13 xGabout what the chances were worth
1. FC Magdeburg0 from 0.93 xGless than the chances were worth

Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.

Line-ups

Dynamo Dresden 4-2-3-1
  • 22L. GrillG
  • 32J. SternerD
  • 6N. RappD
  • 42F. MullerD
  • 44S. StraudiD
  • 21T. RaschlM
  • 24P. ČovićM
  • 18R. WagnerM
  • 27N. HauptmannM
  • 20B. BobzienM
  • 9V. VermeijF
Substitutes
  • 1T. SchreiberG
  • 19A. RossipalD
  • 33C. DafernerF
  • 16N. FrölingF
  • 8L. HerrmannM
  • 11K. InanogluF
  • 10J. LemmerM
  • 17A. MuhamedbegovićD
  • 34T. NeiningerD
Coach: Thomas Stamm
1. FC Magdeburg 4-3-3
  • 1D. ReimannG
  • 7H. BockhornD
  • 5T. MüllerD
  • 3A. MacNultyD
  • 28P. NadjombeD
  • 26T. MüselM
  • 38L. HyryläinenM
  • 10M. KwartengM
  • 8E. IyohaF
  • 22M. ŻukowskiF
  • 23B. AtikF
Substitutes
  • 35Magnus Elias BaarsF
  • 11F. ChávezM
  • 15D. HeberD
  • 6P. JaeckelD
  • 30N. KruthG
  • 33Leon MergnerM
  • 19L. MusondaD
  • 17A. NollenbergerF
  • 9R. ŠimićF
Coach: P. Sander

Form going into Dynamo Dresden vs 1. FC Magdeburg

Dynamo Dresden

2. Bundesliga

  • D1-1away to VfL Osnabrück10 October 2026

1. FC Magdeburg

2. Bundesliga

  • W3-0Hannover 9610 October 2026

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

2. Bundesliga table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
15Dynamo Dresden113261520-511
41. FC Magdeburg116232514+1120

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: Dynamo Dresden vs 1. FC Magdeburg

  • 24 January 20261. FC Magdeburg 1–2 Dynamo Dresden2. Bundesliga
  • 9 August 2025Dynamo Dresden 1–2 1. FC Magdeburg2. Bundesliga
  • 6 January 2024Dynamo Dresden 2–2 1. FC MagdeburgFriendlies Clubs
  • 6 February 2021FC Magdeburg 0–1 Dynamo Dresden3. Liga
  • 10 October 2020Dynamo Dresden 1–0 FC Magdeburg3. Liga
  • 16 March 2019Dynamo Dresden 1–1 FC Magdeburg2. Bundesliga

Leading scorers: Dynamo Dresden and 1. FC Magdeburg

Dynamo Dresden

No player in 2. Bundesliga's leading scorers — 15 league goals as a side.

1. FC Magdeburg

GoalsAssists

  • E. Iyoha60
  • M. Żukowski60

Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.

The result against the call

Dynamo Dresden beat 1. FC Magdeburg 2–0. The model had leaned towards a win for 1. FC Magdeburg at 40% and given a win for Dynamo Dresden 35%. The goals: Niklas Hauptmann (penalty) 9' for Dynamo Dresden, Simon Straudi 50' for Dynamo Dresden. On expected goals it finished 2.13–0.93.

What this result changed

Before kick-off the season simulation gave Dynamo Dresden a 28.2% chance to finish in the bottom three: 22.1% after a win, 28.7% after a draw, 31.8% after a defeat. The win was the best of those results for them, and left the figure at 22.1%, 6.1 points lower than before the match.

For 1. FC Magdeburg the question was the chance to finish in the top four, 38.1% going in: 43.1% after a win, 36.5% after a draw, 32.6% after a defeat. The defeat was the worst of those results for them, and left the figure at 32.6%, 5.5 points lower than before the match.

Read from our 2. Bundesliga season simulation as it stood before this match (10,000 runs), counting this result alone. Every result since then has moved the table again, so today's figure is on the competition page.

How the call on Dynamo Dresden v 1. FC Magdeburg has moved

First published on 3 Oct at 37% / 27% / 36% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 3 updates, it read 35% / 25% / 40%: the biggest move is 1. FC Magdeburg's chance of winning, up 4 points.

  1. Dynamo Dresden win35%▼ −2
  2. Draw25%▼ −2
  3. 1. FC Magdeburg win40%▲ +4

Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.