18 October 2026, 11:30 UTC

Karlsruher SC vs SV Darmstadt 98 2. Bundesliga prediction & result

BBBank Wildpark, Karlsruhe
Referee: Marc Philip Eckermann
Full time4 – 0

Final score: Karlsruher SC 4-0 SV Darmstadt 98.

Before kick-off the model made it 37% Karlsruher SC, 26% draw, 37% SV Darmstadt 98 — fair odds of 2.70, 3.85 and 2.70.

Most likely scoreline: 2-1.

The model called the result correctly.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

Karlsruher SC at 37%: of 4,828 settled 30–40% forecasts, 33.4% came in (average 33.7%). It can be read literally. The full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

Karlsruher SC99%Draw1%SV Darmstadt 980%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 4 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

⚽Shio Fukudaassist: Marvin Wanitzek
5'
⚽Marvin Wanitzekassist: Shio Fukuda
13'
⚽Christoph Kobaldassist: Marvin Wanitzek
50'
🔁Noel Eichingerout: Jason Ponente-Ramirez
62'
⚽Kevin Wiethaup
65'
🔁Kevin Wiethaupout: Tim Civeja
66'
🔁Sebastian Jungout: Deniz Ofli
66'
Sandro Tremoulet
71'
71'
Milan Smit
71'
Aleksandar Vukotić
72'
🔁Hiroki Akiyamaout: Noah Weisshaupt
72'
🔁Marco Richterout: Ibrahim El Kadiri
72'
🔁Lance Duijvestijnout: Yannik Luhrs
72'
🔁Lee Ho-Jaeout: Florian Kleinhansl
🔁Christoph Kobaldout: paul scholl
81'
🔁Santeri Väänänenout: Danyal Hakan Zor
81'

Match stats — Karlsruher SC vs SV Darmstadt 98

40%Possession60%
15Shots9
7On target1
4Corners4
1.24xG0.53

Goals against chances

Karlsruher SC4 from 1.24 xGmore than the chances were worth
SV Darmstadt 980 from 0.53 xGless than the chances were worth

Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.

Line-ups

Karlsruher SC 3-4-3
  • 1H. BernatG
  • 22C. KobaldD
  • 28M. FrankeD
  • 24S. TrémouletD
  • 2S. JungM
  • 7K. WiethaupM
  • 6S. VäänänenM
  • 33V. BerghM
  • 10M. WanitzekF
  • 13S. FukudaF
  • 11N. EichingerF
Substitutes
  • 23T. CivejaM
  • 25L. EgloffM
  • 30R. HimmelmannG
  • 5Kwon Hyeok-KyuM
  • 3D. OfliD
  • 15Paul SchollD
  • 26D. H. ZorM
  • 37J. PonenteF
  • 27J. D. MeyerF
Coach: M. Senft
SV Darmstadt 98 4-2-3-1
  • 1M. SchuhenG
  • 25W. MikelbrencisD
  • 6P. PfeifferD
  • 20A. VukotićD
  • 18R. PetrettaD
  • 17K. KlefischM
  • 16H. AkiyamaM
  • 5M. RichterM
  • 36M. SmitM
  • 41L. DuijvestijnM
  • 9Lee Ho-JaeF
Substitutes
  • 19F. LakenmacherF
  • 28C. LannertD
  • 49Y. LührsD
  • 7N. WeißhauptM
  • 11I. El KadiriF
  • 3F. KleinhanslD
  • 30A. BrunstG
  • 26M. BaderD
  • 43Tom SteineckM
Coach: F. Kohfeldt

Form going into Karlsruher SC vs SV Darmstadt 98

Karlsruher SC

2. Bundesliga

  • L0-2away to FC St. Pauli11 October 2026

SV Darmstadt 98

2. Bundesliga

  • W3-1Energie Cottbus10 October 2026

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

2. Bundesliga table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
16Karlsruher SC113261524-911
17SV Darmstadt 9811236921-129

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: Karlsruher SC vs SV Darmstadt 98

  • 3 May 2026Karlsruher SC 2–1 SV Darmstadt 982. Bundesliga
  • 6 December 2025SV Darmstadt 98 3–2 Karlsruher SC2. Bundesliga
  • 7 March 2025SV Darmstadt 98 3–0 Karlsruher SC2. Bundesliga
  • 4 October 2024Karlsruher SC 3–3 SV Darmstadt 982. Bundesliga
  • 22 July 2023Karlsruher SC 0–0 SV Darmstadt 98Friendlies Clubs
  • 21 April 2023SV Darmstadt 98 2–1 Karlsruher SC2. Bundesliga

The result against the call

Karlsruher SC beat SV Darmstadt 98 4–0. The goals: Shio Fukuda 5' for Karlsruher SC, Marvin Wanitzek 13' for Karlsruher SC, Christoph Kobald 50' for Karlsruher SC, Kevin Wiethaup 65' for Karlsruher SC. On expected goals it finished 1.24–0.53.

What this result changed

Before kick-off the season simulation gave Karlsruher SC a 52.3% chance to finish in the bottom three: 44.3% after a win, 53.6% after a draw, 59.4% after a defeat. The win was the best of those results for them, and left the figure at 44.3%, 8 points lower than before the match.

For SV Darmstadt 98 the question was the chance to finish in the bottom three, 24.2% going in: 18.6% after a win, 25.0% after a draw, 28.7% after a defeat. The defeat was the worst of those results for them, and left the figure at 28.7%, 4.5 points higher than before the match.

Read from our 2. Bundesliga season simulation as it stood before this match (10,000 runs), counting this result alone. Every result since then has moved the table again, so today's figure is on the competition page.

How the call on Karlsruher SC v SV Darmstadt 98 has moved

First published on 3 Oct at 39% / 27% / 34% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 6 updates, it read 37% / 26% / 37%: the biggest move is SV Darmstadt 98's chance of winning, up 3 points.

  1. Karlsruher SC win37%▼ −2
  2. Draw26%▼ −1
  3. SV Darmstadt 98 win37%▲ +3

Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.