16 October 2026, 18:00 UTC

MTK Budapest vs Vasas NB I prediction & result

Budapest
Full time1 – 0

Final score: MTK Budapest 1-0 Vasas.

Before kick-off the model made it 31% MTK Budapest, 24% draw, 45% Vasas — fair odds of 3.23, 4.17 and 2.22.

Most likely scoreline: 1-2.

The model got this one wrong.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

Vasas at 45%: of 2,957 settled 40–50% forecasts, 46.1% came in (average 43.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

MTK Budapest92%Draw8%Vasas0%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 1 goal, and a card each of the 1 sending-off. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

⚽Gyorgy Komaromi
26'
45'
🔁Rajmund horvathout: Márk Kovácsréti
60'
Botond Baráth
62'
B. Rab
🔁Gabor Jurekout: Kristof Hinora
65'
67'
🔁Márk Kosztaout: Bence Janos Petho
67'
🔁B. Rabout: Szabolcs Mezei
67'
🔁Milan Tóthout: C. Molnár
🔁Mark Kerezsi Zalanout: Á Nyers
76'
Patrik kovacs
76'
83'
🔁Sandor Hidiout: Gergo Janos Palinkas
🔁Á. Zuborout: Benedek Varju
83'
84'
Dániel Csóka
90+1'
Bence Pávkovics

Match stats — MTK Budapest vs Vasas

45%Possession55%
14Shots17
5On target4
3Corners5
1.15xG1.65

Goals against chances

MTK Budapest1 from 1.15 xGabout what the chances were worth
Vasas0 from 1.65 xGless than the chances were worth

Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.

Line-ups

MTK Budapest 4-2-3-1
  • 43Bence VargaG
  • 26V. ArmalasD
  • 4I. BeriashviliD
  • 55S. RadićD
  • 27P. KovácsD
  • 6M. KataM
  • 80Adrian ZeljkovićM
  • 11G. JurekM
  • 8A. G. ZuborM
  • 77G. KomáromiM
  • 20Zalán Márk KerezsiF
Substitutes
  • 10I. BognárM
  • 24T. FadgyasG
  • 17K. HinoraM
  • 9M. KlauszF
  • 45D. VargaM
  • 41B. SzebellediD
  • 37Adam NyersF
  • 13M. TimoteusD
  • 30Sámuel Barnabás BakóF
Coach: Máté Pinezits
Vasas 4-2-3-1
  • 87M. EngediG
  • 4B. PávkovicsD
  • 36B. BaráthD
  • 17Dániel CsókaD
  • 14Á. DoktoricsD
  • 16B. RabM
  • 15S. HidiM
  • 84Rajmund HorvathM
  • 88J. UrblíkM
  • 77M. TóthM
  • 9M. KosztaF
Substitutes
  • 10M. KovácsrétiM
  • 24S. MezeiM
  • 18G. PálinkásF
  • 29B. PethőF
  • 7A. RadóF
  • 22Viktor HeiD
  • 26J. UramG
  • 94B. CsekeM
  • 8B. Banó-SzabóM
Coach: G. Erős

Form going into MTK Budapest vs Vasas

MTK Budapest

NB I

  • L0-3away to Paks10 October 2026

Vasas

NB I

  • D1-1Kisvarda FC10 October 2026

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

NB I table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
10MTK Budapest133461827-913
7Vasas134452019+116

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: MTK Budapest vs Vasas

  • 1 July 2026MTK Budapest 3–1 VasasFriendlies Clubs
  • 14 March 2020MTK Budapest 3–1 VasasNB II
  • 18 September 2019Vasas 1–4 MTK BudapestNB II
  • 11 March 2017MTK Budapest 1–0 VasasNB I

Leading scorers: MTK Budapest and Vasas

MTK Budapest

GoalsAssists

  • G. Jurek71
  • Zalán Márk Kerezsi43

Vasas

GoalsAssists

  • J. Urblík33

Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.

The result against the call

MTK Budapest beat Vasas 1–0. The model had leaned towards a win for Vasas at 45% and given a win for MTK Budapest 31%. At that figure it expects the outcome about once in every 3 matches like this one. The goal: Gyorgy Komaromi 26' for MTK Budapest. Sent off: Patrik kovacs (MTK Budapest) 76'. On expected goals it finished 1.15–1.65.

What this result changed

Before kick-off the season simulation gave MTK Budapest a 55.6% chance to finish in the bottom three: 48.3% after a win, 55.8% after a draw, 60.9% after a defeat. The win was the best of those results for them, and left the figure at 48.3%, 7.3 points lower than before the match.

For Vasas the question was the chance to finish in the top four, 60.0% going in: 65.1% after a win, 57.5% after a draw, 53.7% after a defeat. The defeat was the worst of those results for them, and left the figure at 53.7%, 6.3 points lower than before the match.

Read from our NB I season simulation as it stood before this match (10,000 runs), counting this result alone. Every result since then has moved the table again, so today's figure is on the competition page.

How the call on MTK Budapest v Vasas has moved

First published on 2 Oct at 32% / 26% / 42% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 2 updates, it read 31% / 24% / 45%: the biggest move is Vasas's chance of winning, up 3 points.

  1. MTK Budapest win31%▼ −1
  2. Draw24%▼ −2
  3. Vasas win45%▲ +3

Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.