16 October 2026, 16:00 UTC

Warta Poznań vs Unia Skierniewice I Liga prediction & result

Referee: L. Karski
Full time1 – 0

Final score: Warta Poznań 1-0 Unia Skierniewice.

Before kick-off the model made it 57% Warta Poznań, 23% draw, 20% Unia Skierniewice — fair odds of 1.75, 4.35 and 5.00.

Most likely scoreline: 2-1.

The model called the result correctly.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

Warta Poznań at 57%: of 1,648 settled 50–65% forecasts, 58.6% came in (average 55.4%). It can be read literally. The full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

Warta Poznań97%Draw3%Unia Skierniewice0%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 1 goal. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

3'
A. Burkiewicz
⚽J. Apolinarski
8'
46'
🔁M. Kosiorout: S. Dudek
46'
🔁B. Eizenchartout: M. Szmyd
🔁A. Mlynarczykout: K. Szymanek
55'
63'
🔁D. Makuchout: L. Wolsztynski
🔁M. Stefaniakout: J. Kendzia
67'
🔁K. Lysiakout: A. Najemski
75'
🔁P. Kusztalout: A. Wolczek
75'
82'
🔁A. Burkiewiczout: K. Toporkiewicz
88'
🔁J. Mierzwaout: J. Czarnecki
89'
S. Dudek
K. Kalata
90+1'

Line-ups

Warta Poznań
Coach: Maciej Tokarczyk
Unia Skierniewice
Coach: Kamil Socha

Form going into Warta Poznań vs Unia Skierniewice

Warta Poznań

I Liga

  • L1-2away to Stal Mielec11 October 2026

Unia Skierniewice

I Liga

  • D2-2Nieciecza10 October 2026

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

I Liga table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
9Warta Poznań146172020019
17Unia Skierniewice144282026-614

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: Warta Poznań vs Unia Skierniewice

  • 22 November 2025Warta Poznań 0–2 Unia SkierniewiceII Liga - East
  • 27 July 2025Unia Skierniewice 2–1 Warta PoznańII Liga - East

The result against the call

Warta Poznań beat Unia Skierniewice 1–0. The model had made a win for Warta Poznań its most likely outcome, at 57%, so the call held; the score it named was 2–1. The goal: J. Apolinarski 8' for Warta Poznań.

What this result changed

Before kick-off the season simulation gave Warta Poznań a 37.6% chance to finish in the top four: 40.3% after a win, 34.4% after a draw, 28.7% after a defeat. The win was the best of those results for them, and left the figure at 40.3%, 2.7 points higher than before the match.

For Unia Skierniewice the question was the chance to finish in the bottom three, 44.3% going in: 33.4% after a win, 42.4% after a draw, 47.7% after a defeat. The defeat was the worst of those results for them, and left the figure at 47.7%, 3.4 points higher than before the match.

Read from our I Liga season simulation as it stood before this match (10,000 runs), counting this result alone. Every result since then has moved the table again, so today's figure is on the competition page.

How the call on Warta Poznań v Unia Skierniewice has moved

First published on 2 Oct at 54% / 25% / 21% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 4 updates, it read 57% / 23% / 20%: the biggest move is Warta Poznań's chance of winning, up 3 points.

  1. Warta Poznań win57%▲ +3
  2. Draw23%▼ −2
  3. Unia Skierniewice win20%▼ −1

Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.