16 October 2026, 17:30 UTC

Rapid Vienna vs TSV Hartberg Bundesliga prediction & result

Allianz Stadion, Vienna
Referee: Daniel Pfister
Full time3 – 1

Final score: Rapid Vienna 3-1 TSV Hartberg.

Before kick-off the model made it 61% Rapid Vienna, 22% draw, 17% TSV Hartberg — fair odds of 1.64, 4.55 and 5.88.

Most likely scoreline: 2-1.

The model called the result correctly.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

Rapid Vienna at 61%: of 1,648 settled 50–65% forecasts, 58.6% came in (average 55.4%). It can be read literally. The full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

Rapid Vienna99%Draw1%TSV Hartberg0%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 4 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

⚽Petter Nosakhare Dahl
5'
15'
•Marco Hoffmann
Serge-Philippe Raux-Yao
26'
⚽Petter Nosakhare Dahlassist: Ercan Kara
45+1'
45'
🔁Nikolaus Feldhoferout: Tobias Kainz
45'
🔁Youba Diarraout: Oliver Lukic
49'
⚽Magnus Dalpiazassist: Oliver Lukic
50'
Luka·Maric
57'
Konstantin Schopp
🔁Tonni Adamsenout: Moulaye Haïdara
61'
66'
🔁Manuel Pfeiferout: Jed Drew
🔁Ercan Karaout: Claudy M'Buyi
71'
🔁Petter Nosakhare Dahlout: Marco Tilio
71'
75'
🔁Angelo Gattermayerout: Andrija Radulovic
⚽Jannes Horn
81'
🔁Nicolas Bajliczout: Louis Schaub
85'
🔁Yusuf Demirout: Nikolaus Wurmbrand
85'
89'
🔁Marco Hoffmannout: Jonas Karner
90+2'
Jonas Karner

Match stats — Rapid Vienna vs TSV Hartberg

54%Possession46%
9Shots14
5On target4
1Corners5
1.48xG0.99

Goals against chances

Rapid Vienna3 from 1.48 xGmore than the chances were worth
TSV Hartberg1 from 0.99 xGabout what the chances were worth

Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.

Line-ups

Rapid Vienna 4-2-3-1
  • 1N. HedlG
  • 77B. BollaD
  • 55N. CvetkovićD
  • 6S. Raux-YaoD
  • 38J. HornD
  • 30N. BajliczM
  • 18M. SeidlM
  • 22Y. DemirM
  • 8T. AdamsenM
  • 10P. DahlM
  • 9E. KaraF
Substitutes
  • 20K. AhoussouD
  • 61F. DemirD
  • 25P. GartlerG
  • 43M. HaïdaraF
  • 71C. M'BuyiF
  • 2Eaden RokaD
  • 21L. SchaubM
  • 7M. TilioF
  • 15Nikolaus WurmbrandF
Coach: Johannes Thorup
TSV Hartberg 4-4-2
  • 91Á. PécsiG
  • 14P. KomposchD
  • 27K. SchoppD
  • 6Habib CoulibalyD
  • 12M. PfeiferD
  • 16M. DalpiazM
  • 4B. MarkušM
  • 5Y. DiarraM
  • 95Nikolaus FeldhoferM
  • 7A. GattermayerF
  • 22M. HoffmanF
Substitutes
  • 17J. KarnerM
  • 10O. LukicM
  • 21L. MarićG
  • 2L. PazourekM
  • 8M. PostlF
  • 49A. RadulovićF
  • 19L. SpendlhoferD
  • 23T. KainzM
  • 11J. DrewF
Coach: M. Schopp

Form going into Rapid Vienna vs TSV Hartberg

Rapid Vienna

Bundesliga

  • W2-0away to Lask Linz11 October 2026

TSV Hartberg

Bundesliga

  • W4-3Austria Lustenau11 October 2026

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

Austria Bundesliga table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
1Rapid Vienna121101399+3033
4TSV Hartberg126242319+420

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: Rapid Vienna vs TSV Hartberg

  • 22 April 2026Rapid Vienna 0–2 TSV HartbergBundesliga
  • 19 April 2026TSV Hartberg 2–2 Rapid ViennaBundesliga
  • 7 February 2026Rapid Vienna 1–1 TSV HartbergBundesliga
  • 31 August 2025TSV Hartberg 0–1 Rapid ViennaBundesliga
  • 9 March 2025TSV Hartberg 2–1 Rapid ViennaBundesliga
  • 20 October 2024Rapid Vienna 2–1 TSV HartbergBundesliga

Leading scorers: Rapid Vienna and TSV Hartberg

Rapid Vienna

GoalsAssists

  • E. Kara71
  • P. Dahl71
  • T. Adamsen55

TSV Hartberg

GoalsAssists

  • C. Hoffmann61
  • M. Hoffman40

Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.

The result against the call

Rapid Vienna beat TSV Hartberg 3–1. The model had made a win for Rapid Vienna its most likely outcome, at 61%, so the call held; the score it named was 2–1. The goals: Petter Nosakhare Dahl 5' for Rapid Vienna, Petter Nosakhare Dahl 45+1' for Rapid Vienna, Magnus Dalpiaz 49' for TSV Hartberg, Jannes Horn 81' for Rapid Vienna. On expected goals it finished 1.48–0.99.

What this result changed

Before kick-off the season simulation gave Rapid Vienna a 56.2% chance to finish top of the regular season: 61.1% after a win, 48.5% after a draw, 42.4% after a defeat. The win was the best of those results for them, and left the figure at 61.1%, 4.9 points higher than before the match.

For TSV Hartberg the question was the chance to finish in the top four, 11.4% going in: 19.3% after a win, 11.5% after a draw, 9.0% after a defeat. The defeat was the worst of those results for them, and left the figure at 9.0%, 2.4 points lower than before the match.

Read from our Bundesliga season simulation as it stood before this match (10,000 runs), counting this result alone. Every result since then has moved the table again, so today's figure is on the competition page.

How the call on Rapid Vienna v TSV Hartberg has moved

First published on 2 Oct at 52% / 26% / 22% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 4 updates, it read 61% / 22% / 17%: the biggest move is Rapid Vienna's chance of winning, up 9 points.

  1. Rapid Vienna win61%▲ +9
  2. Draw22%▼ −4
  3. TSV Hartberg win17%▼ −5

Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.