17 October 2026, 12:30 UTC

Nyiregyhaza vs Budapest Honved NB I prediction & result

Városi Stadion, Nyiregyhaza
Full time0 – 1

Final score: Nyiregyhaza 0-1 Budapest Honved.

Before kick-off the model made it 38% Nyiregyhaza, 25% draw, 37% Budapest Honved — fair odds of 2.63, 4.00 and 2.70.

Most likely scoreline: 2-1.

The model got this one wrong.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

Nyiregyhaza at 38%: of 4,828 settled 30–40% forecasts, 33.4% came in (average 33.7%). It can be read literally. The full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

Nyiregyhaza0%Draw5%Budapest Honved95%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 1 goal. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

Marko Regža
16'
György Toma
36'
🔁Sandro Ingolitschout: Zsombor Hös
45'
50'
Oleksandr Safronov
60'
Pablo García Ruiz
🔁Nemanja Antonovout: Balázs Manner
62'
🔁Marko Regžaout: Žan Medved
62'
69'
🔁Patrik Pinteout: Kevin Sydney Kantor
69'
🔁Pablo García Ruizout: Ádám Gyurcsó
Balázs Manner
71'
72'
🔁Oleksandr Safronovout: Branko Pauljević
73'
Tamás Somogyi
74'
⚽Kevin Sydney Kantorassist: Ádám Gyurcsó
77'
Ádám Szamosi
90'
🔁Alberto Mariout: Adi Alić
90'
🔁Ádám Szamosiout: Deian Boldor
Martin Dala
90+4'

Match stats — Nyiregyhaza vs Budapest Honved

63%Possession37%
18Shots7
5On target3
6Corners2
1.16xG0.9

Goals against chances

Nyiregyhaza0 from 1.16 xGless than the chances were worth
Budapest Honved1 from 0.90 xGabout what the chances were worth

Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.

Line-ups

Nyiregyhaza 4-4-2
  • 57M. DalaG
  • 24V. JovanovD
  • 39R. ŽikovićD
  • 31L. KatonaD
  • 70M. KatonaD
  • 25S. IngolitschM
  • 6Y. TomaM
  • 12M. KovácsM
  • 7N. AntonovM
  • 9M. KvasinaF
  • 23M. RegžaF
Substitutes
  • 99Á. AlaxaiD
  • 66B. BenczenleitnerD
  • 8Zsombor HosM
  • 74D. KaczvinszkiD
  • 10B. MannerM
  • 26Ž. MedvedF
  • 17C. MateM
  • 22M. MolnarG
  • 21Z. VukkM
Coach: Tamás Bódog
Budapest Honved 4-4-2
  • 31O. HadžikićG
  • 33O. SafronovD
  • 44Á. BakiD
  • 4A. SzabóD
  • 11S. HangyaD
  • 17P. PinteM
  • 99I. PekárM
  • 40Adam SzamosiM
  • 3P. GarciaM
  • 30T. SomogyiF
  • 45Alberto MaríF
Substitutes
  • 1G. DúzsG
  • 80R. EddarrajM
  • 9Á. GyurcsóF
  • 72K. KallaiD
  • 49B. PauljevićD
  • 7A. ZuigeberF
  • 19A. AlićF
  • 20P. GarciaM
  • 46S. CsanadF
Coach: M. Jacobacci

Form going into Nyiregyhaza vs Budapest Honved

Nyiregyhaza

NB I

  • L1-5away to Zalaegerszegi TE11 October 2026

Budapest Honved

NB I

  • D1-1Ujpest11 October 2026

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

NB I table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
12Nyiregyhaza133371424-1012
8Budapest Honved123541619-314

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: Nyiregyhaza vs Budapest Honved

  • 11 February 2024Budapest Honved 1–1 NyiregyhazaNB II
  • 13 August 2023Nyiregyhaza 0–0 Budapest HonvedNB II
  • 19 September 2021Nyiregyhaza 1–5 Budapest HonvedMagyar Kupa
  • 28 February 2015Nyiregyhaza 2–0 Budapest HonvedNB I
  • 9 August 2014Budapest Honved 0–1 NyiregyhazaNB I

Leading scorers: Nyiregyhaza and Budapest Honved

Nyiregyhaza

GoalsAssists

  • M. Kvasina41

Budapest Honved

No player in NB I's leading scorers — 16 league goals as a side.

Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.

The result against the call

Budapest Honved won 1–0 at Nyiregyhaza. The model had leaned towards a win for Nyiregyhaza at 38% and given a win for Budapest Honved 37%. The goal: Kevin Sydney Kantor 74' for Budapest Honved. On expected goals it finished 1.16–0.90.

What this result changed

Before kick-off the season simulation gave Nyiregyhaza a 72.5% chance to finish in the bottom three: 66.8% after a win, 75.4% after a draw, 77.6% after a defeat. The defeat was the worst of those results for them, and left the figure at 77.6%, 5.1 points higher than before the match.

For Budapest Honved the question was the chance to finish in the bottom three, 53.3% going in: 45.7% after a win, 53.9% after a draw, 60.3% after a defeat. The win was the best of those results for them, and left the figure at 45.7%, 7.6 points lower than before the match.

Read from our NB I season simulation as it stood before this match (10,000 runs), counting this result alone. Every result since then has moved the table again, so today's figure is on the competition page.

How the call on Nyiregyhaza v Budapest Honved has moved

First published on 3 Oct at 39% / 28% / 33% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 3 updates, it read 38% / 25% / 37%: the biggest move is Budapest Honved's chance of winning, up 4 points.

  1. Nyiregyhaza win38%▼ −1
  2. Draw25%▼ −3
  3. Budapest Honved win37%▲ +4

Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.