3 November 2026, 20:00 UTC

Villarreal vs Paris Saint Germain UEFA Champions League prediction & result

Estadio de la Ceramica, Villarreal
Referee: Felix Zwayer, Germany
Full time0 – 6

Final score: Villarreal 0-6 Paris Saint Germain.

Before kick-off the model made it 22% Villarreal, 21% draw, 57% Paris Saint Germain — fair odds of 4.55, 4.76 and 1.75.

Most likely scoreline: 1-2.

The model called the result correctly.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

Paris Saint Germain at 57%: of 1,648 settled 50–65% forecasts, 58.6% came in (average 55.4%). It can be read literally. The full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

Villarreal0%Draw1%Paris Saint Germain99%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 6 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

9'
⚽João Neves
12'
⚽Désiré Doueassist: Maghnes Akliouche
13'
⚽Senny Mayulu
17'
⚽Fabián Ruizassist: Maghnes Akliouche
Santi Comesaña
45'
🔁Nicolas Pépéout: Sergi Cardona Bermúdez
45'
Álvaro Santiago Mouriño González
50'
50'
⚽Fabián Ruizassist: Vitinha
60'
🔁Senny Mayuluout: Mika Godts
60'
🔁Maghnes Aklioucheout: Ferrán Torres
🔁Carlos Romeroout: Tani Oluwaseyi
63'
🔁Ayoze Pérezout: Georges Mikautadze
63'
🔁Santi Comesañaout: Alberto Moleiro
63'
Sergi Cardona Bermúdez
66'
74'
🔁Achraf Hakimiout: David Boly
74'
🔁Désiré Doueout: Quentin Ndjantou
74'
🔁Vitinhaout: Lucas Beraldo
74'
Quentin Ndjantou
Alberto Moleiro
78'
78'
⚽David Bolyassist: João Neves
🔁Alex Freemanout: Pau Navarro
79'

Match stats — Villarreal vs Paris Saint Germain

29%Possession71%
14Shots22
2On target12
4Corners8
0.74xG2.75

Goals against chances

Villarreal0 from 0.74 xGless than the chances were worth
Paris Saint Germain6 from 2.75 xGmore than the chances were worth

Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.

Line-ups

Villarreal 4-4-2
  • 25P. GulácsiG
  • 3A. FreemanD
  • 15S. MouriñoD
  • 12Renato VeigaD
  • 20Carlos RomeroD
  • 14Santi ComesañaM
  • 16C. MaciaM
  • 18P. GueyeM
  • 17T. BuchananM
  • 19N. PépéF
  • 22Ayoze PérezF
Substitutes
  • 28Joselillo GaitánF
  • 27N. El JmiliF
  • 2Logan CostaD
  • 23Sergi CardonaD
  • 13Rubén GómezG
  • 9G. MikautadzeF
  • 10Alberto MoleiroM
  • 6Pau NavarroD
  • 21T. OluwaseyiF
Coach: Iñigo Pérez
Paris Saint Germain 4-3-3
  • 39M. SafonovG
  • 2A. HakimiD
  • 6I. ZabarnyiD
  • 51W. PachoD
  • 21L. HernándezD
  • 87João NevesM
  • 17VitinhaM
  • 8Fabián RuizM
  • 11M. AklioucheF
  • 24Senny MayuluF
  • 14D. DouéF
Substitutes
  • 42D. BolyD
  • 30L. ChevalierG
  • 12L. DigneD
  • 27Pedro FernándezM
  • 22M. GodtsF
  • 47Quentin Ndjantou MbitchaF
  • 9Ferran TorresF
  • 33W. Zaïre-EmeryM
  • 4BeraldoD
Coach: Luis Enrique

Form going into Villarreal vs Paris Saint Germain

Villarreal

UEFA Champions League

  • L3-4away to Liverpool20 October 2026
  • W3-1Napoli13 October 2026
  • L2-3away to Borussia Dortmund8 September 2026

Paris Saint Germain

UEFA Champions League

  • W4-2Barcelona20 October 2026
  • W4-2away to Manchester City14 October 2026
  • W6-1Slovan Bratislava9 September 2026

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

UEFA Champions League table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
28Villarreal4103814-63
1Paris Saint Germain4400205+1512

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Leading scorers: Villarreal and Paris Saint Germain

Villarreal

No player in UEFA Champions League's leading scorers — 8 league goals as a side.

Paris Saint Germain

GoalsAssists

  • Fabián Ruiz41
  • O. Dembélé33
  • D. Doué32

Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.

The result against the call

Paris Saint Germain won 6–0 at Villarreal. The model had made a win for Paris Saint Germain its most likely outcome, at 57%, so the call held; the score it named was 2–1. The goals: João Neves 9' for Paris Saint Germain, Désiré Doue 12' for Paris Saint Germain, Senny Mayulu 13' for Paris Saint Germain, Fabián Ruiz 17' for Paris Saint Germain, Fabián Ruiz 50' for Paris Saint Germain, David Boly 78' for Paris Saint Germain. On expected goals it finished 0.74–2.75.

How the call on Villarreal v Paris Saint Germain has moved

First published on 20 Oct at 36% / 25% / 39% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 6 updates, it read 22% / 21% / 57%: the biggest move is Paris Saint Germain's chance of winning, up 18 points.

  1. Villarreal win22%▼ −14
  2. Draw21%▼ −4
  3. Paris Saint Germain win57%▲ +18

Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.