Heracles vs Waalwijk Eerste Divisie prediction & result
Final score: Heracles 3-0 Waalwijk.
Before kick-off the model made it 45% Heracles, 27% draw, 28% Waalwijk — fair odds of 2.22, 3.70 and 3.57.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0.
The model called the result correctly.
Published · updated
All Eerste Divisie predictions →
Has the model earned this number?
Heracles at 45%: of 2,957 settled 40–50% forecasts, 46.1% came in (average 43.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 3 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Heracles vs Waalwijk
Goals against chances
Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.
Line-ups
- 1F. de KeijzerG
- 2M. BenitaD
- 4D. MiraniD
- 14M. WruschD
- 25MannyD
- 5D. van der KustM
- 32S. SchepermanM
- 7C. AbbasM
- 17T. van GilstM
- 18M. HauswirthM
- 27J. N'djoliF
- 6D. TomićM
- 23M. te WierikD
- 26D. van KaamM
- 30D. van OorschotF
- 10T. BrunsM
- 3Mario BoracD
- 35S. BultmanD
- 8M. EngelsM
- 16T. JansinkG
- 1N. SchiksG
- 33F. Al MazyaniD
- 30J. de WijsD
- 4L. van GelderenD
- 55N. HeldD
- 8J. NapM
- 6L. PostmaM
- 7R. FageM
- 22T. van de LooM
- 93V. MisidjanM
- 9J. van de HaarF
- 13Xander MulderG
- 25N. BakboordD
- 24A. DkidakD
- 42B. KemmerenD
- 20Keyan VarelaF
- 16M. SpenkelinkG
- 27F. StokkersF
- 19H. van GemertF
- 18R. van HedelM
Form going into Heracles vs Waalwijk
Heracles
All competitions we cover
- D2-2away to Helmond Sport2 October 2026
Waalwijk
All competitions we cover
- D1-1Emmen3 October 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
Eerste Divisie table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Heracles | 15 | 12 | 2 | 1 | 46 | 16 | +30 | 38 |
| 9 | Waalwijk | 15 | 4 | 8 | 3 | 27 | 20 | +7 | 20 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Heracles vs Waalwijk
- 2 August 2025Heracles 3–1 WaalwijkFriendlies Clubs
- 6 April 2025Waalwijk 0–0 HeraclesEredivisie
- 23 November 2024Heracles 2–2 WaalwijkEredivisie
- 5 May 2024Heracles 0–5 WaalwijkEredivisie
- 12 January 2024Waalwijk 1–2 HeraclesEredivisie
- 11 May 2022Waalwijk 2–0 HeraclesEredivisie
Leading scorers: Heracles and Waalwijk
Heracles
GoalsAssists
- J. N'djoli143
- T. van Gilst112
Waalwijk
No player in Eerste Divisie's leading scorers — 27 league goals as a side.
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
The result against the call
Heracles beat Waalwijk 3–0. The model had made a win for Heracles its most likely outcome, at 45%, so the call held; the score it named was 1–0. The goals: Tristan Van Gilst (penalty) 51' for Heracles, Damon Mirani 65' for Heracles, Manny Rodriguez Baldera 68' for Heracles. On expected goals it finished 2.47–0.75.
What this result changed
Before kick-off the season simulation gave Heracles a 68.0% chance to finish in the top four: 73.1% after a win, 65.3% after a draw, 62.6% after a defeat. The win was the best of those results for them, and left the figure at 73.1%, 5.1 points higher than before the match.
For Waalwijk the question was the chance to finish in the top four, 34.3% going in: 41.4% after a win, 33.5% after a draw, 29.8% after a defeat. The defeat was the worst of those results for them, and left the figure at 29.8%, 4.5 points lower than before the match.
Read from our Eerste Divisie season simulation as it stood before this match (10,000 runs), counting this result alone. Every result since then has moved the table again, so today's figure is on the competition page.
How the call on Heracles v Waalwijk has moved
First published on 2 Oct at 41% / 29% / 30% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 2 updates, it read 45% / 27% / 28%: the biggest move is Heracles's chance of winning, up 4 points.
- Heracles win45%▲ +4
- Draw27%▼ −2
- Waalwijk win28%▼ −2
Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.