Baranovichi vs Naftan Premier League prediction & result
Final score: Baranovichi 3-0 Naftan.
Before kick-off the model made it 59% Baranovichi, 22% draw, 19% Naftan — fair odds of 1.69, 4.55 and 5.26.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
The model called the result correctly.
Published · updated
All Belarusian Premier League predictions →
Has the model earned this number?
Baranovichi at 59%: of 1,648 settled 50–65% forecasts, 58.6% came in (average 55.4%). It can be read literally. The full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 3 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Baranovichi vs Naftan
Line-ups
- 12D. ShapkoG
- 11N. RyabykhD
- 33Kirill MuzychenkoD
- 19A. BruyD
- 23V. VasilenkoD
- 8V. BalbukhM
- 6Alibi TuzakbaevM
- 22M. BondarenkoM
- 96V. PotorochaM
- 34A. PetrenkoM
- 77M. ArtyukhF
- 45Ersultan TorekulF
- 97T. TkachevD
- 4V. KarpenyaD
- 88Z. GitselevM
- 93A. DresmanisG
- 2S. KendyshD
- 9E. LapunM
- 29S. PenchukM
- 7T. PukhovM
- 16D. SadovskiyG
- 8A. StefanishinD
- 7A. TumanovD
- 69Roman khadzhievD
- 97V. ChernyavskiyM
- 50G. MafwentaM
- 10A. SavitskiyM
- 88A. DrabatovichM
- 9V. YakovlevM
- 94A. VoskoboynikovF
- 11I. PranovichF
- 57T. GalimzyanovM
- 25Jorge Garcia de la Torre ArmasF
- 13A. KharitonovichG
- 24I. SeleznevM
- 20E. LeshchenokM
- 21K. KirkitskiyM
- 30Marlen AymanovF
- 6K. AdamovichM
Form going into Baranovichi vs Naftan
Baranovichi
Premier League
- W3-1away to FC Minsk23 October 2026
- L0-1FC Vitebsk17 October 2026
- L0-3away to Neman10 October 2026
Naftan
Premier League
- L0-6FC Isloch Minsk R.24 October 2026
- L0-1away to Torpedo Zhodino19 October 2026
- W4-1Belshina10 October 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
Belarus Premier League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11 | Baranovichi | 28 | 8 | 7 | 13 | 30 | 45 | -15 | 31 |
| 16 | Naftan | 28 | 4 | 5 | 19 | 24 | 70 | -46 | 17 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Baranovichi vs Naftan
- 19 June 2026Naftan 1–0 BaranovichiPremier League
- 12 November 2022Naftan 2–1 Baranovichi1. Division
- 24 July 2022Baranovichi 0–4 Naftan1. Division
- 19 September 2021Naftan 5–1 Baranovichi1. Division
- 4 July 2021Baranovichi 1–6 Naftan1. Division
- 17 April 2021Naftan 2–0 Baranovichi1. Division
The result against the call
Baranovichi beat Naftan 3–0. The model had made a win for Baranovichi its most likely outcome, at 59%, so the call held; the score it named was 2–1. The goals: Valeriy·Potorocha 16' for Baranovichi, Kirill Muzychenko 52' for Baranovichi, Mikhail Bondarenko 70' for Baranovichi.
How the call on Baranovichi v Naftan has moved
First published on 17 Oct at 53% / 23% / 24% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 5 updates, it read 59% / 22% / 19%: the biggest move is Baranovichi's chance of winning, up 6 points.
- Baranovichi win59%▲ +6
- Draw22%▼ −1
- Naftan win19%▼ −5
Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.