Coritiba vs Chapecoense Serie A prediction & result
Final score: Coritiba 2-1 Chapecoense.
Before kick-off the model made it 51% Coritiba, 24% draw, 25% Chapecoense — fair odds of 1.96, 4.17 and 4.00. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
The model called the exact scoreline.
Published · updated
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Coritiba at 51% here. Across 2488 settled matches, 635 forecasts have landed in the 50–65% band; those outcomes actually happened 52.3% of the time, against an average forecast of 55.7%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 3 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Coritiba vs Chapecoense
Goals against chances
Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.
Line-ups
- 1Pedro MoriscoG
- 2TingaD
- 23Tiago CóserD
- 55Jacy MaranhãoD
- 26Bruno MeloD
- 19Sebastian GomezM
- 21Thiago SantosM
- 7Joaquín LavegaM
- 10JosuéM
- 77Breno LopesM
- 32Pedro RochaF
- 17Brian OcampoF
- 6Felipe JonatanD
- 4Rodrigo MoledoD
- 36Vini PaulistaF
- 3MaiconD
- 13KeillerG
- 44João Pedro ChermontD
- 50Vitor Gonçalves TissiM
- 18Paulo RobertoM
- 98AndersonG
- 26EvertonD
- 3Eduardo DomaD
- 21KauanD
- 12FernandoD
- 27CamiloM
- 16Bruno MatiasM
- 70Rubens TadeuM
- 22MaxM
- 7MarcinhoM
- 10Giovanni AugustoF
- 9Tulio Eduardo Silva de OliveiraF
- 94Kevin RamírezF
- 29Franco RossiF
- 91Bruno PachecoD
- 97ÊnioM
- 30MatheusG
- 15Rafael ThyereD
- 17Vinicius BalieiroM
- 19David AntunesM
Form going into Coritiba vs Chapecoense
Coritiba
- L0-1Cruzeiro31 July 2026
- D0-0away to RB Bragantino26 July 2026
- L1-3Palmeiras22 July 2026
Chapecoense
- D2-2away to Santos25 July 2026
- L0-4Flamengo23 July 2026
- L0-2away to Bahia17 July 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Serie A table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | Coritiba | 27 | 10 | 8 | 9 | 37 | 38 | -1 | 38 |
| 20 | Chapecoense | 26 | 3 | 8 | 15 | 28 | 52 | -24 | 17 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Coritiba vs Chapecoense
- 11 February 2026Chapecoense 3–3 CoritibaSerie A
- 9 August 2025Coritiba 0–0 ChapecoenseSerie B
- 12 April 2025Chapecoense 1–2 CoritibaSerie B
- 17 November 2024Chapecoense 2–1 CoritibaSerie B
- 27 July 2024Coritiba 1–0 ChapecoenseSerie B
- 3 December 2017Chapecoense 2–1 CoritibaSerie A
Leading scorers: Coritiba and Chapecoense
Coritiba
- Pedro Rocha8 goals1 assists
- Breno Lopes8 goals1 assists
Chapecoense
No player in Serie A's leading scorers — 28 league goals as a side.
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.