Philadelphia Union vs CF Montreal Major League Soccer prediction & result
Final score: Philadelphia Union 2-0 CF Montreal.
Before kick-off the model made it 46% Philadelphia Union, 28% draw, 26% CF Montreal — fair odds of 2.17, 3.57 and 3.85.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0.
The model called the result correctly.
Published · updated
Has the model earned this number?
Philadelphia Union at 46%: of 2,957 settled 40–50% forecasts, 46.1% came in (average 43.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 2 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Philadelphia Union vs CF Montreal
Goals against chances
Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.
Line-ups
- 18A. BlakeG
- 39F. WestfieldD
- 44N. PierreD
- 26N. HarrielD
- 27K. WagnerD
- 6C. SullivanM
- 21D. Jean JacquesM
- 4J. LukicM
- 19I. VassilevM
- 10M. IloskiF
- 9B. DamianiF
- 76A. RickG
- 5J. Sery LarsenD
- 11A. BedoyaM
- 33Q. SullivanM
- 8J. BuenoM
- 14J. RafanelloM
- 16B. BenderM
- 23E. AlladohF
- 51M. JakupovicF
- 1S. BrezaG
- 27D. BugajD
- 2J. NealD
- 4B. VeraD
- 13L. PetrassoD
- 6S. PietteM
- 8M. LongstaffM
- 18G. SynchukM
- 21F. HerbersM
- 10A. SanchezM
- 9P. OwusuF
- 31T. GillierG
- 3B. CeballosD
- 5B. CraigD
- 22V. LoturiM
- 16W. CarmonaM
- 29O. EscobarF
- 23N. StreitM
- 14D. RiosF
- 17D. SealyM
Form going into Philadelphia Union vs CF Montreal
Philadelphia Union
All competitions we cover
- W3-1away to New York Red Bulls29 August 2026
- D1-1away to Austin23 August 2026
- D2-2Inter Miami19 August 2026
- W3-2away to New York City FC16 August 2026
- W3-2Atlanta United FC1 August 2026
CF Montreal
All competitions we cover
- L1-7away to Inter Miami29 August 2026
- D2-2Los Angeles Galaxy22 August 2026
- W2-1away to Columbus Crew19 August 2026
- D1-1DC United15 August 2026
- D2-2New England Revolution1 August 2026
What these results say
- Philadelphia Union went unbeaten through these 5 matches.
- Philadelphia Union scored in every one of these 5 matches.
- Philadelphia Union conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
- CF Montreal scored in every one of these 5 matches.
- CF Montreal conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
- Both sides scored in every one of these 5 matches for CF Montreal.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
Major League Soccer table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | Philadelphia Union | 34 | 14 | 8 | 12 | 66 | 52 | +14 | 50 |
| 15 | CF Montreal | 34 | 6 | 8 | 20 | 37 | 69 | -32 | 26 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Leading scorers: Philadelphia Union and CF Montreal
Philadelphia Union
GoalsAssists
- M. Iloski192
CF Montreal
GoalsAssists
- P. Owusu156
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
The result against the call
Philadelphia Union beat CF Montreal 2–0. The model had made a win for Philadelphia Union its most likely outcome, at 46%, so the call held; the score it named was 1–0. The goals: D. Jean Jacques 58' for Philadelphia Union, C. Sullivan 75' for Philadelphia Union. On expected goals it finished 2.93–1.21.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent matches in our records (any competition, kept since July 2026) before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.