24 October 2026, 21:30 UTC

New York Red Bulls vs Inter Miami Major League Soccer prediction & result

Sports Illustrated Stadium, Harrison
Referee: Filip Dujic, Canada
Full time2 – 0

Final score: New York Red Bulls 2-0 Inter Miami.

Before kick-off the model made it 23% New York Red Bulls, 22% draw, 55% Inter Miami — fair odds of 4.35, 4.55 and 1.82.

Most likely scoreline: 1-2.

The model got this one wrong.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

Inter Miami at 55%: of 1,648 settled 50–65% forecasts, 58.6% came in (average 55.4%). It can be read literally. The full record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

⚽Carlos Henrique Casimiro (OG)
7'
56'
🔁Riquelme Fillipiout: Lionel Messi
🔁Cade Cowellout: Cameron Harper
64'
66'
🔁Matías Galarzaout: Santiago Morales
66'
🔁Gonzalo Lujanout: Ian Fray
74'
🔁Germán Berterameout: Telasco Segovia
74'
🔁David Ayalaout: Yannick Bright
🔁Jorge Ruvalcabaout: Eric Maxim Choupo-Moting
76'
🔁Mohammed Sofoout: Sekou Kone
76'
Julian Bazan
80'
🔁Adri Mehmetiout: Emil Forsberg
85'
🔁Julian Hallout: Jahkeele Marshall-Rutty
85'
⚽Emil Forsbergassist: Cameron Harper
90+1'
90+4'
Santiago Morales

Match stats — New York Red Bulls vs Inter Miami

34%Possession66%
19Shots12
6On target2
3Corners2
3.39xG0.87

Goals against chances

New York Red Bulls2 from 3.39 xGless than the chances were worth
Inter Miami0 from 0.87 xGless than the chances were worth

Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.

Line-ups

New York Red Bulls 4-3-3
  • 34E. HorvathG
  • 12D. NealisD
  • 26T. ParkerD
  • 14J. BazánD
  • 59D. PadelfordD
  • 48R. DonkorM
  • 15A. MehmetiM
  • 37M. SofoM
  • 7C. CowellF
  • 16J. HallF
  • 11J. RuvalcabaF
Substitutes
  • 13E. Choupo-MotingF
  • 10E. ForsbergM
  • 17C. HarperF
  • 60S. KoneM
  • 3J. Marshall-RuttyD
  • 77J. McCarthyG
  • 79R. MosqueraF
  • 8D. RuízM
  • 56M. Dos SantosD
Coach: Michael Bradley
Inter Miami 4-3-3
  • 97D. St. ClairG
  • 2G. LujánD
  • 5CasemiroD
  • 16MicaelD
  • 3ReguilónD
  • 7R. De PaulM
  • 22D. AyalaM
  • 80M. GalarzaM
  • 11Riquelme FillipiF
  • 9L. SuárezF
  • 19G. BerterameF
Substitutes
  • 88A. ShawM
  • 8T. SegoviaM
  • 34R. Ríos NovoG
  • 56Daniel PinterF
  • 4F. MuraD
  • 20S. MoralesM
  • 10L. MessiF
  • 17I. FrayD
  • 42Y. BrightM
Coach: Kily González

Form going into New York Red Bulls vs Inter Miami

New York Red Bulls

Major League Soccer

  • L0-2Toronto FC17 October 2026

Inter Miami

Major League Soccer

  • W3-1away to Atlanta United FC17 October 2026

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

Major League Soccer table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
10New York Red Bulls34126164862-1442
2Inter Miami34161268059+2160

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: New York Red Bulls vs Inter Miami

  • 11 April 2026Inter Miami 2–2 New York Red BullsMajor League Soccer
  • 19 July 2025New York Red Bulls 1–5 Inter MiamiMajor League Soccer
  • 3 May 2025Inter Miami 4–1 New York Red BullsMajor League Soccer
  • 4 May 2024Inter Miami 6–2 New York Red BullsMajor League Soccer
  • 23 March 2024New York Red Bulls 4–0 Inter MiamiMajor League Soccer
  • 26 August 2023New York Red Bulls 0–2 Inter MiamiMajor League Soccer

Leading scorers: New York Red Bulls and Inter Miami

New York Red Bulls

No player in Major League Soccer's leading scorers — 48 league goals as a side.

Inter Miami

GoalsAssists

  • L. Messi2613
  • L. Suárez166

Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.

The result against the call

New York Red Bulls beat Inter Miami 2–0. The model had leaned towards a win for Inter Miami at 55% and given a win for New York Red Bulls 23%. At that figure it expects the outcome about once in every 4 matches like this one. The goals: Carlos Henrique Casimiro (own goal) 7' for New York Red Bulls, Emil Forsberg 90+1' for New York Red Bulls. On expected goals it finished 3.39–0.87.

What this result changed

Before kick-off the season simulation gave New York Red Bulls a 14.5% chance to finish in the top nine: 37.2% after a win, 12.1% after a draw, 6.2% after a defeat. The win was the best of those results for them, and left the figure at 37.2%, 22.7 points higher than before the match.

Read from our Major League Soccer season simulation as it stood before this match (10,000 runs), counting this result alone. Every result since then has moved the table again, so today's figure is on the competition page.

How the call on New York Red Bulls v Inter Miami has moved

First published on 10 Oct at 25% / 22% / 53% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 3 updates, it read 23% / 22% / 55%: the biggest move is New York Red Bulls's chance of winning, down 2 points.

  1. New York Red Bulls win23%▼ −2
  2. Draw22%=
  3. Inter Miami win55%▲ +2

Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.