24 October 2026, 23:30 UTC

Philadelphia Union vs New England Revolution Major League Soccer prediction & result

Subaru Park, Philadelphia
Referee: Malik Badawi
Full time1 – 2

Final score: Philadelphia Union 1-2 New England Revolution.

Before kick-off the model made it 53% Philadelphia Union, 23% draw, 24% New England Revolution — fair odds of 1.89, 4.35 and 4.17.

Most likely scoreline: 2-1.

The model got this one wrong.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

Philadelphia Union at 53%: of 1,648 settled 50–65% forecasts, 58.6% came in (average 55.4%). It can be read literally. The full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

Philadelphia Union0%Draw6%New England Revolution94%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 3 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

45+3'
⚽Dor Turgemanassist: Peyton Miller
Bruno Damiani
61'
Jovan Lukic
63'
65'
Jackson Yueill
🔁Indiana Vassilevout: Agustin Anello
68'
76'
🔁Dániel Gazdagout: Brooklyn Raines
🔁Nathan Harrielout: Malik Jakupovic
82'
90+1'
⚽Carles Gil (pen)
90+2'
🔁Dor Turgemanout: Wilson Harris
90+2'
🔁Luca Daniel·Langoniout: Mamadou Fofana
90+7'
🔁Carles Gilout: Diego Fagúndez
90+7'
🔁Jackson Yueillout: Judah Siqueira
⚽Neil Pierreassist: Kai Wagner
90+12'

Match stats — Philadelphia Union vs New England Revolution

53%Possession47%
25Shots12
8On target8
4Corners6
2.62xG2.3

Goals against chances

Philadelphia Union1 from 2.62 xGless than the chances were worth
New England Revolution2 from 2.30 xGabout what the chances were worth

Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.

Line-ups

Philadelphia Union 4-4-2
  • 18A. BlakeG
  • 39F. WestfieldD
  • 44Neil PierreD
  • 26N. HarrielD
  • 27K. WagnerD
  • 33Q. SullivanM
  • 21D. Jean-JacquesM
  • 4J. LukićM
  • 19I. VassilevM
  • 10M. IloskiF
  • 9B. DamianiF
Substitutes
  • 23E. AlladohF
  • 28A. AnelloF
  • 11A. BedoyaM
  • 16B. BenderM
  • 51M. JakupovicF
  • 14J. RafanelloM
  • 76A. RickG
  • 5J. Sery LarsenD
  • 47K. LeBlancM
Coach: Ryan Richter
New England Revolution 4-3-3
  • 30M. TurnerG
  • 12I. FeingoldD
  • 22E. KohlerD
  • 66J. WynderD
  • 25P. MillerD
  • 10Carles GilM
  • 8M. PolsterM
  • 14J. YueillM
  • 41L. LangoniF
  • 99D. TurgemanF
  • 16D. GazdagF
Substitutes
  • 77D. FagundezM
  • 2M. FofanaD
  • 27W. HarrisF
  • 33D. ParisianG
  • 65J. SiqueiraM
  • 7G. YowF
  • 15C. BakerD
  • 21B. RainesM
  • 4T. BeasonD
Coach: M. Mićović

Form going into Philadelphia Union vs New England Revolution

Philadelphia Union

Major League Soccer

  • D2-2Charlotte17 October 2026

New England Revolution

Major League Soccer

  • W1-0Chicago Fire17 October 2026

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

Major League Soccer table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
6Philadelphia Union34148126652+1450
3New England Revolution34184125547+858

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: Philadelphia Union vs New England Revolution

  • 9 May 2026New England Revolution 2–1 Philadelphia UnionMajor League Soccer
  • 20 September 2025Philadelphia Union 1–0 New England RevolutionMajor League Soccer
  • 9 March 2025New England Revolution 0–2 Philadelphia UnionMajor League Soccer
  • 17 July 2024Philadelphia Union 5–1 New England RevolutionMajor League Soccer
  • 18 May 2024New England Revolution 0–3 Philadelphia UnionMajor League Soccer
  • 14 February 2024New England Revolution 0–0 Philadelphia UnionFriendlies Clubs

Leading scorers: Philadelphia Union and New England Revolution

Philadelphia Union

GoalsAssists

  • M. Iloski192

New England Revolution

No player in Major League Soccer's leading scorers — 55 league goals as a side.

Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.

The result against the call

New England Revolution won 2–1 at Philadelphia Union. The model had leaned towards a win for Philadelphia Union at 53% and given a win for New England Revolution 24%. At that figure it expects the outcome about once in every 4 matches like this one. The goals: Dor Turgeman 45+3' for New England Revolution, Carles Gil (penalty) 90+1' for New England Revolution, Neil Pierre 90+12' for Philadelphia Union. On expected goals it finished 2.62–2.30.

How the call on Philadelphia Union v New England Revolution has moved

First published on 10 Oct at 51% / 23% / 26% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 4 updates, it read 53% / 23% / 24%: the biggest move is Philadelphia Union's chance of winning, up 2 points.

  1. Philadelphia Union win53%▲ +2
  2. Draw23%=
  3. New England Revolution win24%▼ −2

Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.