24 October 2026, 23:30 UTC

DC United vs FC Cincinnati Major League Soccer prediction & result

Audi Field, Washington
Referee: Jon Freemon
Full time0 – 2

Final score: DC United 0-2 FC Cincinnati.

Before kick-off the model made it 39% DC United, 24% draw, 37% FC Cincinnati — fair odds of 2.56, 4.17 and 2.70.

Most likely scoreline: 2-1.

The model got this one wrong.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

DC United at 39%: of 4,828 settled 30–40% forecasts, 33.4% came in (average 33.7%). It can be read literally. The full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

DC United0%Draw1%FC Cincinnati99%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 2 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

24'
Obinna Nwobodo
Tai Baribo
34'
🔁Jackson Hopkinsout: Nikola Marković
35'
35'
⚽Evanderassist: Pavel Bucha
38'
Tom Barlow
52'
⚽Tom Barlowassist: Evander
59'
🔁Kyle Smithout: Samuel Mawuena Gidi
59'
🔁Obinna Nwobodoout: Tah Anunga
59'
🔁Tom Barlowout: Kenji Mboma Dem

Match stats — DC United vs FC Cincinnati

53%Possession47%
13Shots9
2On target3
8Corners3
0.4xG0.99

Goals against chances

DC United0 from 0.40 xGabout what the chances were worth
FC Cincinnati2 from 0.99 xGmore than the chances were worth

Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.

Line-ups

DC United 4-4-2
  • 1S. JohnsonG
  • 5S. HeftiD
  • 3L. BartlettD
  • 15K. RowlesD
  • 6K. KurokawaD
  • 2K. NonoM
  • 23B. ServaniaM
  • 21A. DozzellM
  • 7PeglowM
  • 25J. HopkinsF
  • 9T. BariboF
Substitutes
  • 12C. AntleyD
  • 32O. AvilezF
  • 40K. CastilloM
  • 27Nikola MarkovicD
  • 13S. NealisD
  • 22N. OrdazF
  • 4M. PeltolaD
  • 8J. StroudM
  • 26A. BonoG
Coach: R. Weiler
FC Cincinnati 3-5-2
  • 18R. CelentanoG
  • 24K. SmithD
  • 4N. HagglundD
  • 15T. HadebeD
  • 23D. DouděraM
  • 20P. BuchaM
  • 10EvanderM
  • 5O. NwobodoM
  • 29Bryan Josías Ramírez LeónM
  • 16T. BarlowF
  • 9K. DenkeyF
Substitutes
  • 11S. GidiM
  • 99A. JabbariF
  • 13E. LouroG
  • 17K. Mboma DemF
  • 2A. PowellD
  • 88A. ChirilaD
  • 22G. ValenzuelaM
  • 27B. AnungaM
  • 70J. MartínezM
Coach: Pat Noonan

Form going into DC United vs FC Cincinnati

DC United

Major League Soccer

  • L1-2away to FC Cincinnati21 October 2026

FC Cincinnati

Major League Soccer

  • W2-1DC United21 October 2026

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

Major League Soccer table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
14DC United34712153961-2233
9FC Cincinnati341210126775-846

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: DC United vs FC Cincinnati

  • 21 October 2026FC Cincinnati 2–1 DC UnitedMajor League Soccer
  • 31 May 2025FC Cincinnati 1–2 DC UnitedMajor League Soccer
  • 12 April 2025DC United 0–1 FC CincinnatiMajor League Soccer
  • 3 July 2024DC United 2–3 FC CincinnatiMajor League Soccer
  • 10 March 2024FC Cincinnati 0–0 DC UnitedMajor League Soccer
  • 24 June 2023DC United 3–0 FC CincinnatiMajor League Soccer

Leading scorers: DC United and FC Cincinnati

DC United

GoalsAssists

  • T. Baribo161

FC Cincinnati

GoalsAssists

  • K. Denkey173

Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.

The result against the call

FC Cincinnati won 2–0 at DC United. The model had leaned towards a win for DC United at 39% and given a win for FC Cincinnati 37%. The goals: Evander 35' for FC Cincinnati, Tom Barlow 52' for FC Cincinnati. On expected goals it finished 0.40–0.99.

What this result changed

Before kick-off the season simulation gave DC United a 57.9% chance to finish in the bottom three: 38.0% after a win, 65.0% after a draw, 76.1% after a defeat. The defeat was the worst of those results for them, and left the figure at 76.1%, 18.2 points higher than before the match.

For FC Cincinnati the question was the chance to finish in the top nine, 62.2% going in: 87.6% after a win, 58.5% after a draw, 41.6% after a defeat. The win was the best of those results for them, and left the figure at 87.6%, 25.4 points higher than before the match.

Read from our Major League Soccer season simulation as it stood before this match (10,000 runs), counting this result alone. Every result since then has moved the table again, so today's figure is on the competition page.

How the call on DC United v FC Cincinnati has moved

First published on 10 Oct at 43% / 23% / 34% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 6 updates, it read 39% / 24% / 37%: the biggest move is DC United's chance of winning, down 4 points.

  1. DC United win39%▼ −4
  2. Draw24%▲ +1
  3. FC Cincinnati win37%▲ +3

Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.