Orlando City SC vs New York City FC Major League Soccer prediction & result
Final score: Orlando City SC 2-2 New York City FC.
Before kick-off the model made it 43% Orlando City SC, 25% draw, 32% New York City FC — fair odds of 2.33, 4.00 and 3.13.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
The model got this one wrong.
Published · updated
Has the model earned this number?
Orlando City SC at 43%: of 2,957 settled 40–50% forecasts, 46.1% came in (average 43.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 4 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Orlando City SC vs New York City FC
Goals against chances
Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.
Line-ups
- 71M. CrépeauG
- 77I. AnguloD
- 4D. BrekaloD
- 57IagoD
- 27Vinícius NogueiraD
- 8B. OjedaM
- 16W. CartagenaM
- 22Justin EllisM
- 20E. AtuestaM
- 10M. OjedaM
- 7A. GriezmannF
- 9D. DikeF
- 35Joran GerbetM
- 21N. MillerD
- 12Javier OteroG
- 87Marco PasalicF
- 44Bernardo Rhein GoncalvesF
- 23Harvey SarajianF
- 19Z. TaifiM
- 3Adrián MarínD
- 49M. FreeseG
- 24T. GrayD
- 13Thiago MartinsD
- 6J. SandsD
- 22K. O'TooleD
- 21A. O'NeillM
- 8A. PereaM
- 26A. OjedaM
- 7N. Fernández MercauM
- 17H. WolfM
- 16A. MartínezF
- 20Luighi HanriF
- 3M. MiazgaD
- 34Raul GustavoD
- 30T. RomeroG
- 32J. ShoreM
- 11Talles MagnoF
- 9B. TraoréF
- 88M. JonesF
- 2Nico CavalloD
Form going into Orlando City SC vs New York City FC
Orlando City SC
Major League Soccer
- W4-1DC United17 October 2026
New York City FC
Major League Soccer
- D1-1Los Angeles FC17 October 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
Major League Soccer table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | Orlando City SC | 34 | 13 | 7 | 14 | 63 | 78 | -15 | 46 |
| 11 | New York City FC | 34 | 10 | 12 | 12 | 49 | 45 | +4 | 42 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Orlando City SC vs New York City FC
- 7 March 2026New York City FC 5–0 Orlando City SCMajor League Soccer
- 17 July 2025Orlando City SC 1–2 New York City FCMajor League Soccer
- 9 March 2025New York City FC 2–1 Orlando City SCMajor League Soccer
- 20 July 2024Orlando City SC 1–1 New York City FCMajor League Soccer
- 28 June 2024New York City FC 4–2 Orlando City SCMajor League Soccer
- 20 September 2023New York City FC 2–0 Orlando City SCMajor League Soccer
Leading scorers: Orlando City SC and New York City FC
Orlando City SC
GoalsAssists
- M. Ojeda164
- A. Griezmann147
New York City FC
GoalsAssists
- N. Fernández Mercau166
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
The result against the call
Orlando City SC and New York City FC drew 2–2. The model had leaned towards a win for Orlando City SC at 43% and given a draw 25%. At that figure it expects the outcome about once in every 4 matches like this one. The goals: Alonso Martinez 18' for New York City FC, Antoine Griezmann 32' for Orlando City SC, Martin Ojeda 49' for Orlando City SC, Jonathan Shore 90+9' for New York City FC. On expected goals it finished 0.86–1.77.
What this result changed
Before kick-off the season simulation gave Orlando City SC a 92.7% chance to finish in the top nine: 99.8% after a win, 93.6% after a draw, 84.1% after a defeat. The draw was the middle one of the three, and left the figure at 93.6%, 0.9 points higher than before the match.
For New York City FC the question was the chance to finish in the top nine, 39.1% going in: 62.7% after a win, 35.8% after a draw, 21.7% after a defeat. The draw was the middle one of the three, and left the figure at 35.8%, 3.3 points lower than before the match.
Read from our Major League Soccer season simulation as it stood before this match (10,000 runs), counting this result alone. Every result since then has moved the table again, so today's figure is on the competition page.
How the call on Orlando City SC v New York City FC has moved
First published on 10 Oct at 40% / 25% / 35% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 3 updates, it read 43% / 25% / 32%: the biggest move is Orlando City SC's chance of winning, up 3 points.
- Orlando City SC win43%▲ +3
- Draw25%=
- New York City FC win32%▼ −3
Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.