31 October 2026, 15:00 UTC

Colchester vs Walsall League Two prediction & result

Colchester
Referee: D. Brown
Full time1 – 3

Final score: Colchester 1-3 Walsall.

Before kick-off the model made it 36% Colchester, 30% draw, 34% Walsall — fair odds of 2.78, 3.33 and 2.94.

Most likely scoreline: 1-0.

The model got this one wrong.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

Colchester at 36%: of 4,828 settled 30–40% forecasts, 33.4% came in (average 33.7%). It can be read literally. The full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

Colchester0%Draw4%Walsall96%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 4 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

3'
⚽Declan Skuraassist: Reece Smith
34'
Elicha Ahui
⚽Jack Payne (pen)
35'
🔁Leon Chiwomeout: Jaden Williams
45'
68'
Lewis Simper
71'
🔁Taione Richard Evumena Sodjeout: Andrew Dallas
71'
🔁Lewis Simperout: Courtney Alphonso Clarke
Paul Digby
77'
🔁Jay Williamsout: Ben perry
78'
🔁Oscar thornout: Bradley ihionvein
78'
79'
⚽Aaron Pressleyassist: Mason·Hancock
83'
Mason·Hancock
🔁Kane Vincent-Youngout: Kien Connelly
86'
90+4'
🔁Charlie Crewout: Sven Sprangler
90+6'
⚽Courtney Alphonso Clarke

Match stats — Colchester vs Walsall

46%Possession54%
21Shots17
6On target9
10Corners6
2.73xG2.2

Goals against chances

Colchester1 from 2.73 xGless than the chances were worth
Walsall3 from 2.20 xGmore than the chances were worth

Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.

Line-ups

Colchester 4-2-3-1
  • 22T. Lo-TutalaG
  • 30K. Vincent-YoungD
  • 5J. TuckerD
  • 20S. RaggettD
  • 3E. IandoloD
  • 26J. WilliamsM
  • 6P. DigbyM
  • 27O. ThornM
  • 10J. PayneM
  • 12M. SesayM
  • 11L. ChiwomeF
Substitutes
  • 2R. HuntD
  • 9B. IhionvienF
  • 4Ben PerryM
  • 1T. SmithG
  • 24F. TerryD
  • 17Jaden WilliamsF
  • 39K. ConnellyF
Coach: D. Cowley
Walsall 4-2-3-1
  • 1J. WardG
  • 22E. AhuiD
  • 25D. SkuraD
  • 4J. ConnollyD
  • 3M. HancockD
  • 8C. CrewM
  • 15Isaac MooreM
  • 10L. SimperM
  • 7Taione Richard Evumena SodjeM
  • 11R. SmithM
  • 19A. PressleyF
Substitutes
  • 26R. LeakD
  • 6S. SpranglerM
  • 31Tom WoosterG
  • 9A. DallasF
  • 29J. FurlongD
  • 17Courtney ClarkeM
  • 37A. AdomahF
Coach: Lee Grant

Form going into Colchester vs Walsall

Colchester

League Two

  • L0-2away to Northampton24 October 2026
  • D1-1away to Chesterfield20 October 2026
  • D0-0Exeter City17 October 2026

Walsall

League Two

  • L2-4Salford City26 October 2026
  • W3-0Oldham20 October 2026
  • D1-1away to Swindon Town17 October 2026
  • D1-1away to Fleetwood Town10 October 2026

What these results say

  • Walsall scored in every one of these 4 matches.
  • Walsall failed to win 3 of these 4 matches.
  • Walsall conceded in 3 of these 4 matches.

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

League Two table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
21Colchester143651419-515
6Walsall135712112+922

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: Colchester vs Walsall

  • 28 March 2026Colchester 1–1 WalsallLeague Two
  • 15 November 2025Walsall 0–2 ColchesterLeague Two
  • 8 February 2025Colchester 2–1 WalsallLeague Two
  • 28 September 2024Walsall 4–0 ColchesterLeague Two
  • 16 March 2024Colchester 1–1 WalsallLeague Two
  • 2 September 2023Walsall 1–0 ColchesterLeague Two

Leading scorers: Colchester and Walsall

Colchester

No player in League Two's leading scorers — 14 league goals as a side.

Walsall

GoalsAssists

  • A. Pressley90

Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.

The result against the call

Walsall won 3–1 at Colchester. The model had leaned towards a win for Colchester at 36% and given a win for Walsall 34%. The goals: Declan Skura 3' for Walsall, Jack Payne (penalty) 35' for Colchester, Aaron Pressley 79' for Walsall, Courtney Alphonso Clarke 90+6' for Walsall. On expected goals it finished 2.73–2.20.

What this result changed

Before kick-off the season simulation gave Colchester a 8.4% chance to finish in the bottom two: 5.6% after a win, 9.4% after a draw, 9.7% after a defeat. The defeat was the worst of those results for them, and left the figure at 9.7%, 1.3 points higher than before the match.

For Walsall the question was the chance to finish in the top three, 21.3% going in: 24.7% after a win, 19.9% after a draw, 17.3% after a defeat. The win was the best of those results for them, and left the figure at 24.7%, 3.4 points higher than before the match.

Read from our League Two season simulation as it stood before this match (10,000 runs), counting this result alone. Every result since then has moved the table again, so today's figure is on the competition page.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.