Fleetwood Town vs Bristol Rovers League Two prediction & result
Final score: Fleetwood Town 3-1 Bristol Rovers.
Before kick-off the model made it 41% Fleetwood Town, 28% draw, 31% Bristol Rovers — fair odds of 2.44, 3.57 and 3.23.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0.
The model called the result correctly.
Published · updated
Has the model earned this number?
Fleetwood Town at 41%: of 2,957 settled 40–50% forecasts, 46.1% came in (average 43.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 4 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Fleetwood Town vs Bristol Rovers
Goals against chances
Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.
Line-ups
- 1J. LynchG
- 26S. RooneyD
- 6R. BennettD
- 5F. PotterD
- 4H. NealM
- 14L. McCannM
- 27C. McLeanM
- 10M. HelmM
- 24Jake Thomas BattyM
- 19R. CoughlanF
- 20A. Loupalo-BiF
- 7A. CannonM
- 9W. DaviesF
- 16Conor HaugheyD
- 22J. PradicG
- 28J. RobertsonM
- 11Joshua ThomasF
- 29Raffaele CirinoD
- 1Brad YoungG
- 22Keenan GoughD
- 5A. KilgourD
- 17C. KellyD
- 3J. SparkesD
- 2T. JamesM
- 21R. SmallwoodM
- 6C. MolaM
- 7S. FordeF
- 29F. CavegnF
- 28A. AppiahF
- 8R. Russell-DennyM
- 23M. Southam-HalesD
- 9J. QuigleyF
- 14B. PurringtonD
- 27P. SanyaoluM
- 34Stan DunneM
- 32Charlie BinnsG
Form going into Fleetwood Town vs Bristol Rovers
Fleetwood Town
League Two
- L1-2away to Exeter City24 October 2026
- L2-4away to Cheltenham20 October 2026
- W2-0Rotherham17 October 2026
Bristol Rovers
League Two
- D0-0Swindon Town24 October 2026
- L1-2Salford City20 October 2026
- L0-1away to Shrewsbury17 October 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
League Two table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11 | Fleetwood Town | 15 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 19 | 18 | +1 | 20 |
| 18 | Bristol Rovers | 15 | 5 | 1 | 9 | 17 | 25 | -8 | 16 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Fleetwood Town vs Bristol Rovers
- 3 April 2026Bristol Rovers 1–0 Fleetwood TownLeague Two
- 9 August 2025Fleetwood Town 2–1 Bristol RoversLeague Two
- 12 March 2024Fleetwood Town 0–0 Bristol RoversLeague One
- 6 February 2024Bristol Rovers 0–2 Fleetwood TownLeague One
- 10 April 2023Fleetwood Town 1–2 Bristol RoversLeague One
- 12 November 2022Bristol Rovers 2–2 Fleetwood TownLeague One
Leading scorers: Fleetwood Town and Bristol Rovers
Fleetwood Town
GoalsAssists
- R. Coughlan51
Bristol Rovers
No player in League Two's leading scorers — 17 league goals as a side.
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
The result against the call
Fleetwood Town beat Bristol Rovers 3–1. The model had made a win for Fleetwood Town its most likely outcome, at 41%, so the call held; the score it named was 1–0. The goals: Aaron Loupalo-Bi 37' for Fleetwood Town, R. Bennett 59' for Fleetwood Town, Reiss-Alexander Russell-Denny 84' for Bristol Rovers, Josh Robertson 90' for Fleetwood Town. On expected goals it finished 2.29–0.26.
What this result changed
Before kick-off the season simulation gave Fleetwood Town a 5.3% chance to finish in the bottom two: 3.5% after a win, 5.6% after a draw, 6.7% after a defeat. The win was the best of those results for them, and left the figure at 3.5%, 1.8 points lower than before the match.
For Bristol Rovers the question was the chance to finish in the bottom two, 6.3% going in: 3.6% after a win, 5.3% after a draw, 7.8% after a defeat. The defeat was the worst of those results for them, and left the figure at 7.8%, 1.5 points higher than before the match.
Read from our League Two season simulation as it stood before this match (10,000 runs), counting this result alone. Every result since then has moved the table again, so today's figure is on the competition page.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.