30 October 2026, 20:00 UTC

Sheffield Utd vs Wrexham Championship prediction & result

Bramall Lane, Sheffield
Referee: David Webb
Full time1 – 0

Final score: Sheffield Utd 1-0 Wrexham.

Before kick-off the model made it 46% Sheffield Utd, 27% draw, 27% Wrexham — fair odds of 2.17, 3.70 and 3.70.

Most likely scoreline: 2-1.

The model called the result correctly.

Published

Has the model earned this number?

Sheffield Utd at 46%: of 2,957 settled 40–50% forecasts, 46.1% came in (average 43.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

Sheffield Utd96%Draw4%Wrexham0%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 1 goal. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

27'
Callum Doyle
⚽Ben Brereton
30'
45'
🔁Oliver Rathboneout: Sam Smith
45'
🔁Dominic Hyamout: Max Cleworth
Liam Kitching
55'
Kalvin Phillips
67'
🔁Jordan Ayewout: Thomas Cannon
69'
🔁Tahith Chongout: Femi Seriki
69'
73'
🔁Jacques Ekomiéout: George Thomason
73'
🔁Issa Kaboreout: Danny Imray
73'
🔁Ben Sheafout: George Dobson
🔁Ben Breretonout: Oliver Arblaster
79'
🔁Romelle Donovanout: Tyrese Campbell
86'
🔁Hamza Choudhuryout: Mark McGuinness
86'

Match stats — Sheffield Utd vs Wrexham

55%Possession45%
13Shots9
4On target2
7Corners0
1.33xG0.7

Goals against chances

Sheffield Utd1 from 1.33 xGabout what the chances were worth
Wrexham0 from 0.70 xGless than the chances were worth

Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.

Line-ups

Sheffield Utd 4-4-2
  • 1M. CooperG
  • 8H. ChoudhuryD
  • 5J. TangangaD
  • 15L. KitchingD
  • 14H. BurrowsD
  • 19T. ChongM
  • 42Sydie PeckM
  • 27K. PhillipsM
  • 11R. DonovanM
  • 10J. AyewF
  • 22B. BreretonF
Substitutes
  • 44J. RiedewaldM
  • 25M. McGuinnessD
  • 3S. McCallumD
  • 9T. CannonF
  • 23T. CampbellF
  • 4O. ArblasterM
  • 7J. RothwellM
  • 38F. SerikiD
  • 31Tommy BettsG
Coach: Chris Wilder
Wrexham 3-4-2-1
  • 22A. PattersonG
  • 5D. HyamD
  • 6J. WorrallD
  • 2C. DoyleD
  • 12I. KaboréM
  • 37M. JamesM
  • 18B. SheafM
  • 3J. EkomiéM
  • 20O. RathboneM
  • 27L. O'BrienM
  • 19K. MooreF
Substitutes
  • 8B. WhitemanM
  • 11B. CadamarteriF
  • 4M. CleworthD
  • 15G. DobsonM
  • 30Daniel Edward Peter ImrayD
  • 28S. SmithF
  • 14G. ThomasonM
  • 26Z. VynerD
  • 21D. WardG
Coach: P. Parkinson

Form going into Sheffield Utd vs Wrexham

Sheffield Utd

Championship

  • D1-1Derby24 October 2026
  • W1-0away to Bristol City17 October 2026

Wrexham

Championship

  • L0-2away to Blackburn24 October 2026
  • W4-1Preston17 October 2026

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

Championship table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
10Sheffield Utd156452119+222
15Wrexham154651820-218

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: Sheffield Utd vs Wrexham

Sheffield Utd and Wrexham have met 6 times in the records we hold, Sheffield Utd has won 3 of them to Wrexham's 2, with 1 drawn.

The record

Sheffield Utd won the last one 1–0 on 30 Oct 2026.

ClubWDLGFGA
Sheffield Utd3121513
Wrexham2131315

Between them these 6 meetings produced 28 goals, an average of 4.67 a game.

Every meeting

Every recorded meeting, newest first.

  • 30 Oct 2026
    Championship    Sheffield Utd 1–0 Wrexham
  • 21 Mar 2026
    Championship    Sheffield Utd 1–2 Wrexham
  • 26 Dec 2025
    Championship    Wrexham 5–3 Sheffield Utd
  • 13 Aug 2024
    League Cup    Sheffield Utd 4–2 Wrexham
  • 7 Feb 2023
    FA Cup    Sheffield Utd 3–1 Wrexham
  • 29 Jan 2023
    FA Cup    Wrexham 3–3 Sheffield Utd

How the model rates them now

On the current ratings, Sheffield Utd's attack rates 7% above Wrexham's, and the two defences are almost level. How the ratings are derived.

ClubAttackDefence
Sheffield Utd0.761.33
Wrexham0.711.30

More head-to-heads on this week’s board →

Leading scorers: Sheffield Utd and Wrexham

Sheffield Utd

GoalsAssists

  • P. Bamford51

Wrexham

GoalsAssists

  • K. Moore52

Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.

The result against the call

Sheffield Utd beat Wrexham 1–0. The model had made a win for Sheffield Utd its most likely outcome, at 46%, so the call held; the score it named was 2–1. The goal: Ben Brereton 30' for Sheffield Utd. On expected goals it finished 1.33–0.70.

What this result changed

Before kick-off the season simulation gave Wrexham a 5.8% chance to finish in the bottom three: 3.0% after a win, 5.9% after a draw, 6.8% after a defeat. The defeat was the worst of those results for them, and left the figure at 6.8%, 1 points higher than before the match.

Read from our Championship season simulation as it stood before this match (10,000 runs), counting this result alone. Every result since then has moved the table again, so today's figure is on the competition page.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.