Accrington Stanley vs Northampton League Two prediction & result
Final score: Accrington Stanley 1-1 Northampton.
Before kick-off the model made it 41% Accrington Stanley, 32% draw, 27% Northampton — fair odds of 2.44, 3.13 and 3.70.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0.
The model got this one wrong.
Published · updated
Has the model earned this number?
Accrington Stanley at 41%: of 2,957 settled 40–50% forecasts, 46.1% came in (average 43.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 2 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Accrington Stanley vs Northampton
Goals against chances
Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.
Line-ups
- 1L. MouldenG
- 17D. MatthewsD
- 5F. RawsonD
- 22J. AndersonD
- 2D. LoveM
- 16Aidan BorlandM
- 14Stefan MolsM
- 33D. TutondaM
- 10Alex HendersonM
- 23T. WaltonF
- 30C. WarrenF
- 20C. BrownF
- 8C. GrantM
- 21J. RogersonG
- 25J. SmithD
- 4T. MooreD
- 3Oliver SmithD
- 7S. WhalleyF
- 1Z. JeacockG
- 44J. DonacienD
- 6E. MooreD
- 5J. GuthrieD
- 3J. MaxwellD
- 16J. WormleightonM
- 24C. Lemonheigh-EvansM
- 8L. EvansM
- 19O. DaleM
- 9Matthew WarhurstF
- 7S. HoskinsF
- 14T. FornahM
- 10E. ListF
- 4J. O'Brien-WhitmarshM
- 22Joshua Alan PowellD
- 20L. BriggsM
- 31J. DadgeG
- 35M. DycheD
Form going into Accrington Stanley vs Northampton
Accrington Stanley
League Two
- W5-0away to Rochdale24 October 2026
- D1-1away to York20 October 2026
- W3-1Gillingham17 October 2026
Northampton
League Two
- W2-0Colchester24 October 2026
- L0-1Tranmere20 October 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
League Two table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13 | Accrington Stanley | 15 | 4 | 7 | 4 | 25 | 21 | +4 | 19 |
| 19 | Northampton | 14 | 3 | 6 | 5 | 10 | 11 | -1 | 15 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Accrington Stanley vs Northampton
- 6 February 2021Accrington Stanley 0–0 NorthamptonLeague One
- 14 November 2020Northampton 0–1 Accrington StanleyLeague One
- 28 December 2015Northampton 1–0 Accrington StanleyLeague Two
- 29 August 2015Accrington Stanley 1–1 NorthamptonLeague Two
- 31 January 2015Accrington Stanley 1–5 NorthamptonLeague Two
- 20 September 2014Northampton 4–5 Accrington StanleyLeague Two
Leading scorers: Accrington Stanley and Northampton
Accrington Stanley
GoalsAssists
- J. Woods71
- C. Caton50
Northampton
No player in League Two's leading scorers — 10 league goals as a side.
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
The result against the call
Accrington Stanley and Northampton drew 1–1. The model had leaned towards a win for Accrington Stanley at 41% and given a draw 32%. At that figure it expects the outcome about once in every 3 matches like this one. The goals: Charlie Warren 5' for Accrington Stanley, Elliott List 90+2' for Northampton. On expected goals it finished 1.16–0.64.
What this result changed
Before kick-off the season simulation gave Accrington Stanley these chances to finish in the top three: 20.8% after a win, 16.6% after a draw, 14.1% after a defeat. The draw was the middle one of the three, and left the figure about where it was, at 16.6%.
Read from our League Two season simulation as it stood before this match (10,000 runs), counting this result alone. Every result since then has moved the table again, so today's figure is on the competition page.
How the call on Accrington Stanley v Northampton has moved
First published on 17 Oct at 38% / 29% / 33% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 4 updates, it read 41% / 32% / 27%: the biggest move is Northampton's chance of winning, down 6 points.
- Accrington Stanley win41%▲ +3
- Draw32%▲ +3
- Northampton win27%▼ −6
Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.