Crewe vs Barnet League Two prediction & result
Final score: Crewe 1-1 Barnet.
Before kick-off the model made it 33% Crewe, 25% draw, 42% Barnet — fair odds of 3.03, 4.00 and 2.38.
Most likely scoreline: 1-2.
The model got this one wrong.
Published · updated
Has the model earned this number?
Barnet at 42%: of 2,957 settled 40–50% forecasts, 46.1% came in (average 43.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Crewe vs Barnet
Goals against chances
Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.
Line-ups
- 13I. LawlorG
- 2L. BillingtonD
- 6L. OffordD
- 12J. StephensonD
- 3R. HutchinsonD
- 17M. HolíčekM
- 8C. ThomasM
- 9J. MarchM
- 11J. TabinerM
- 14J. GibsonM
- 23C. McNeillF
- 20Calum AgiusF
- 1T. BoothG
- 29A. ThibautF
- 4Kyle UreM
- 10J. WhiteM
- 30Stan DanceyD
- 27Patrick MlynarskiF
- 13M. CoxG
- 5A. SeniorD
- 4D. CollingeD
- 25N. TavaresD
- 3R. Crichlow-NobleD
- 14B. ComleyM
- 10N. OfoborhM
- 7T. KnowlesM
- 22O. GallagherM
- 8C. LakinM
- 20K. TshimangaF
- 1T. Ashby-HammondG
- 23J. ReevesM
- 18K. SmithD
- 6Z. WilliamsD
- 17D. AjayiF
- 32Isiah Noel WilliamsF
- 9J. MaskellF
Form going into Crewe vs Barnet
Crewe
League Two
- L1-5away to Chesterfield24 October 2026
- L0-2away to Exeter City20 October 2026
- W3-2Rochdale17 October 2026
Barnet
League Two
- W3-1York27 October 2026
- D1-1Oldham24 October 2026
- L1-3Swindon Town20 October 2026
- W2-1away to Tranmere17 October 2026
What these results say
- Barnet scored in every one of these 4 matches.
- Barnet conceded in every one of these 4 matches.
- Both sides scored in every one of these 4 matches for Barnet.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
League Two table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | Crewe | 15 | 5 | 8 | 2 | 19 | 19 | 0 | 23 |
| 2 | Barnet | 13 | 7 | 5 | 1 | 28 | 18 | +10 | 26 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Crewe vs Barnet
- 3 February 2026Barnet 1–1 CreweLeague Two
- 13 September 2025Crewe 1–2 BarnetLeague Two
- 30 March 2018Barnet 2–1 CreweLeague Two
- 19 August 2017Crewe 1–0 BarnetLeague Two
- 6 May 2017Crewe 4–1 BarnetLeague Two
- 19 November 2016Barnet 0–0 CreweLeague Two
Leading scorers: Crewe and Barnet
Crewe
GoalsAssists
- J. Gibson52
Barnet
GoalsAssists
- K. Tshimanga104
- C. Lakin63
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
The result against the call
Crewe and Barnet drew 1–1. The model had leaned towards a win for Barnet at 42% and given a draw 25%. At that figure it expects the outcome about once in every 4 matches like this one. The goals: Tom Knowles 34' for Barnet, Zac Williams (own goal) 85' for Crewe. On expected goals it finished 0.86–0.51.
What this result changed
Before kick-off the season simulation gave Crewe a 10.3% chance to finish in the top three: 13.4% after a win, 9.9% after a draw, 7.4% after a defeat. The draw was the middle one of the three, and left the figure about where it was, at 9.9%.
For Barnet the question was the chance to finish in the top three, 72.1% going in: 76.8% after a win, 71.4% after a draw, 67.1% after a defeat. The draw was the middle one of the three, and left the figure at 71.4%, 0.7 points lower than before the match.
Read from our League Two season simulation as it stood before this match (10,000 runs), counting this result alone. Every result since then has moved the table again, so today's figure is on the competition page.
How the call on Crewe v Barnet has moved
First published on 17 Oct at 36% / 26% / 38% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 3 updates, it read 33% / 25% / 42%: the biggest move is Barnet's chance of winning, up 4 points.
- Crewe win33%▼ −3
- Draw25%▼ −1
- Barnet win42%▲ +4
Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.