HNK Gorica vs NK Slaven Belupo HNL prediction & result
Final score: HNK Gorica 3-5 NK Slaven Belupo.
Before kick-off the model made it 39% HNK Gorica, 30% draw, 31% NK Slaven Belupo — fair odds of 2.56, 3.33 and 3.23.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0.
The model got this one wrong.
Published · updated
All Croatian HNL predictions →
Has the model earned this number?
HNK Gorica at 39%: of 4,828 settled 30–40% forecasts, 33.4% came in (average 33.7%). It can be read literally. The full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 8 goals, and a card each of the 1 sending-off. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — HNK Gorica vs NK Slaven Belupo
Goals against chances
Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.
Line-ups
- 1R. JosipovićG
- 45S. PerićD
- 32J. FilipovićD
- 15D. StevanovićD
- 24D. PavičićM
- 6T. LacouxM
- 36Ante KaveljM
- 34I. CvijanovićM
- 20L. VrzićM
- 25B. BogojevićM
- 10F. BrodićF
- 2F. BrautD
- 26Keenan Nino CaroleF
- 66Juraj FriganM
- 18B. KardumF
- 71D. MatijašG
- 9P. MijićF
- 21H. MoustaphaD
- 8J. PranjićF
- 30D. ŽarkovG
- 32I. ČovićG
- 18F. KrušeljD
- 4D. KovačićD
- 15J. MersinajD
- 3A. JakirD
- 88D. BosakM
- 21L. CrepuljaM
- 7M. DabroM
- 8L. BanovecM
- 11J. MitrovićM
- 90I. NestorovskiF
- 24L. BošnjakM
- 10M. CaimacovM
- 5I. CvetkoD
- 33K. IšasegiD
- 23A. JónssonM
- 29Lovro LoncaricF
- 2V. MeđimorecD
- 45V. PapacF
- 12M. PavliG
Form going into HNK Gorica vs NK Slaven Belupo
HNK Gorica
HNL
- L0-5away to HNK Hajduk Split31 October 2026
- D0-0NK Lokomotiva Zagreb24 October 2026
- D1-1away to NK Osijek17 October 2026
- L1-2Rudes9 October 2026
NK Slaven Belupo
HNL
- L0-2Istra 196130 October 2026
- W2-1away to NK Varazdin24 October 2026
- L1-5Dinamo Zagreb18 October 2026
- W4-1HNK Rijeka11 October 2026
What these results say
- HNK Gorica did not win any of these 4 matches.
- HNK Gorica conceded in 3 of these 4 matches.
- NK Slaven Belupo conceded in every one of these 4 matches.
- NK Slaven Belupo scored in 3 of these 4 matches.
- 3 of these 4 matches for NK Slaven Belupo had three goals or more.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
HNL table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 | HNK Gorica | 13 | 1 | 4 | 8 | 10 | 25 | -15 | 7 |
| 7 | NK Slaven Belupo | 13 | 5 | 1 | 7 | 19 | 28 | -9 | 16 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: HNK Gorica vs NK Slaven Belupo
- 22 August 2026NK Slaven Belupo 2–0 HNK GoricaHNL
- 10 May 2026NK Slaven Belupo 1–0 HNK GoricaHNL
- 7 March 2026HNK Gorica 2–2 NK Slaven BelupoHNL
- 5 December 2025NK Slaven Belupo 2–1 HNK GoricaHNL
- 21 September 2025HNK Gorica 2–1 NK Slaven BelupoHNL
- 18 May 2025NK Slaven Belupo 4–0 HNK GoricaHNL
Leading scorers: HNK Gorica and NK Slaven Belupo
HNK Gorica
GoalsAssists
- B. Bogojević40
NK Slaven Belupo
GoalsAssists
- I. Nestorovski92
- J. Mitrović32
- L. Banovec32
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
The result against the call
NK Slaven Belupo won 5–3 at HNK Gorica. The model had leaned towards a win for HNK Gorica at 39% and given a win for NK Slaven Belupo 31%. At that figure it expects the outcome about once in every 3 matches like this one. The goals: Ilija Nestorovski 17' for NK Slaven Belupo, Stefan Perić 21' for HNK Gorica, Luka Vrzic 25' for HNK Gorica, Josip Mitrović 35' for NK Slaven Belupo, Lovro Banovec 41' for NK Slaven Belupo, Dušan Stevanović 45+5' for HNK Gorica, Ilija Nestorovski (penalty) 65' for NK Slaven Belupo, Mihail Caimacov 90+4' for NK Slaven Belupo. Sent off: Dominik Kovačić (NK Slaven Belupo) 89'. On expected goals it finished 1.19–3.85.
What this result changed
Before kick-off the season simulation gave HNK Gorica a 54.0% chance to finish in the bottom one: 46.8% after a win, 56.7% after a draw, 62.6% after a defeat. The defeat was the worst of those results for them, and left the figure at 62.6%, 8.6 points higher than before the match.
For NK Slaven Belupo the question was the chance to finish in the bottom one, 14.9% going in: 8.0% after a win, 13.5% after a draw, 19.4% after a defeat. The win was the best of those results for them, and left the figure at 8.0%, 6.9 points lower than before the match.
Read from our HNL season simulation as it stood before this match (10,000 runs), counting this result alone. Every result since then has moved the table again, so today's figure is on the competition page.
How the call on HNK Gorica v NK Slaven Belupo has moved
First published on 24 Oct at 42% / 30% / 28% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 4 updates, it read 39% / 30% / 31%: the biggest move is HNK Gorica's chance of winning, down 3 points.
- HNK Gorica win39%▼ −3
- Draw30%=
- NK Slaven Belupo win31%▲ +3
Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.