Istra 1961 vs HNK Rijeka HNL prediction & result
Final score: Istra 1961 3-1 HNK Rijeka.
Before kick-off the model made it 38% Istra 1961, 29% draw, 33% HNK Rijeka — fair odds of 2.63, 3.45 and 3.03.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0.
The model called the result correctly.
Published · updated
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Has the model earned this number?
Istra 1961 at 38%: of 4,828 settled 30–40% forecasts, 33.4% came in (average 33.7%). It can be read literally. The full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 4 goals, and a card each of the 2 sendings-off. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Istra 1961 vs HNK Rijeka
Goals against chances
Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.
Line-ups
- 1F. KolićG
- 44R. HrvatinD
- 4R. KumarD
- 3M. NasraouiD
- 13Niko ŠepićD
- 25G. AlbarracÃnM
- 5D. HodzicM
- 22E. FrederiksenM
- 20D. AhmetiM
- 30N. Skafar ZuzicM
- 94H. JaganjacF
- 34M. KablarM
- 11S. GoričanF
- 27D. CelijaF
- 39T. BrajkovicF
- 97A. KadušićD
- 16S. MiettinenD
- 66M. MomohD
- 40J. Paus-KunštG
- 7V. RozićF
- 13I. VekičG
- 22A. OrečD
- 45A. MajstorovićD
- 51A. HusicD
- 23J. LasickasD
- 6B. PaviÄM
- 26Tiago DantasM
- 18D. Adu-AdjeiM
- 10T. FrukM
- 14A. GojakM
- 21J. PuljićF
- 91N. BodetićD
- 34M. DevetakD
- 4N. JankovićM
- 77A. JuričF
- 7Y. KabadayıF
- 12Domagoj Ivan MaricG
- 9M. MohebiM
- 99A. TodorovićG
- 19S. VignatoM
Form going into Istra 1961 vs HNK Rijeka
Istra 1961
HNL
- W2-0away to NK Slaven Belupo30 October 2026
- D2-2HNK Hajduk Split26 October 2026
- L0-2away to NK Lokomotiva Zagreb17 October 2026
- W3-1away to NK Osijek10 October 2026
HNK Rijeka
HNL
- D1-1NK Varazdin1 November 2026
- L1-2away to Dinamo Zagreb27 October 2026
- W2-1away to Rudes16 October 2026
- L1-4away to NK Slaven Belupo11 October 2026
What these results say
- Istra 1961 scored in 3 of these 4 matches.
- Istra 1961 conceded in 3 of these 4 matches.
- HNK Rijeka scored in every one of these 4 matches.
- HNK Rijeka conceded in every one of these 4 matches.
- Both sides scored in every one of these 4 matches for HNK Rijeka.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
HNL table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | Istra 1961 | 13 | 5 | 4 | 4 | 24 | 19 | +5 | 19 |
| 6 | HNK Rijeka | 12 | 5 | 3 | 4 | 19 | 18 | +1 | 18 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Istra 1961 vs HNK Rijeka
- 23 August 2026HNK Rijeka 3–2 Istra 1961HNL
- 17 May 2026Istra 1961 0–0 HNK RijekaHNL
- 15 March 2026HNK Rijeka 0–2 Istra 1961HNL
- 20 January 2026Istra 1961 1–2 HNK RijekaHNL
- 27 September 2025HNK Rijeka 0–0 Istra 1961HNL
- 19 April 2025Istra 1961 2–0 HNK RijekaHNL
Leading scorers: Istra 1961 and HNK Rijeka
Istra 1961
GoalsAssists
- E. Frederiksen115
- H. Jaganjac52
- D. Ahmeti34
HNK Rijeka
GoalsAssists
- T. Fruk54
- D. Adu-Adjei43
- S. Vignato41
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
The result against the call
Istra 1961 beat HNK Rijeka 3–1. The model had made a win for Istra 1961 its most likely outcome, at 38%, so the call held; the score it named was 1–0. The goals: Emil Frederiksen 30' for Istra 1961, Toni Fruk 39' for HNK Rijeka, Emil Frederiksen 45+1' for Istra 1961, Emil Frederiksen 87' for Istra 1961. Sent off: Jakov Puljić (HNK Rijeka) 27', Ante Majstorović (HNK Rijeka) 83'. On expected goals it finished 2.43–0.93.
What this result changed
Before kick-off the season simulation gave Istra 1961 a 24.9% chance to finish in the top four: 30.0% after a win, 22.9% after a draw, 19.7% after a defeat. The win was the best of those results for them, and left the figure at 30.0%, 5.1 points higher than before the match.
For HNK Rijeka the question was the chance to finish in the top four, 65.8% going in: 73.2% after a win, 64.6% after a draw, 60.5% after a defeat. The defeat was the worst of those results for them, and left the figure at 60.5%, 5.3 points lower than before the match.
Read from our HNL season simulation as it stood before this match (10,000 runs), counting this result alone. Every result since then has moved the table again, so today's figure is on the competition page.
How the call on Istra 1961 v HNK Rijeka has moved
First published on 24 Oct at 35% / 30% / 35% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 3 updates, it read 38% / 29% / 33%: the biggest move is Istra 1961's chance of winning, up 3 points.
- Istra 1961 win38%▲ +3
- Draw29%▼ −1
- HNK Rijeka win33%▼ −2
Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.