6 November 2026, 17:00 UTC

NK Lokomotiva Zagreb vs Rudes HNL prediction & result

Stadion Maksimir, Zagreb
Referee: Ante Terzic
Full time0 – 1

Final score: NK Lokomotiva Zagreb 0-1 Rudes.

Before kick-off the model made it 46% NK Lokomotiva Zagreb, 27% draw, 27% Rudes — fair odds of 2.17, 3.70 and 3.70.

Most likely scoreline: 1-0.

The model got this one wrong.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

NK Lokomotiva Zagreb at 46%: of 2,957 settled 40–50% forecasts, 46.1% came in (average 43.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

NK Lokomotiva Zagreb0%Draw5%Rudes95%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 1 goal. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

45'
🔁Jurica Poldrugacout: Saad El Haddad
🔁Lovre Kulusicout: Jakov Vasilj
61'
62'
Ivan Đorić
66'
Slavko Bralić
67'
🔁Noa Skokoout: Xavier Cabrita Fernandes
🔁Matija Suboticout: Marcel Lorber
72'
🔁Erbol Atabaevout: Wajdi Sahli
72'
76'
🔁Junior Fernandesout: Cherno Saho
76'
🔁Vid Seitzout: Luka Popovic
79'
⚽Saad El Haddad (pen)
80'
Saad El Haddad
🔁Ivan Katicout: Mate Antunovic
80'
86'
🔁Bruno Unusicout: Filip Taraba
90+1'
Cherno Saho

Match stats — NK Lokomotiva Zagreb vs Rudes

66%Possession34%
10Shots7
2On target2
3Corners1
0.79xG1.13

Goals against chances

NK Lokomotiva Zagreb0 from 0.79 xGless than the chances were worth
Rudes1 from 1.13 xGabout what the chances were worth

Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.

Line-ups

NK Lokomotiva Zagreb 4-2-3-1
  • 12J. PosavecG
  • 8I. KatićD
  • 4T. TriantafyllouD
  • 5M. ČabrajaD
  • 20K. ČabrajićD
  • 6F. FetaiM
  • 10M. SubotićM
  • 11Lovre KulušićM
  • 18E. AtabaevM
  • 7D. VukovićM
  • 24M. MarićF
Substitutes
  • 22M. AntunovićF
  • 2J. GurlicaD
  • 14M. LorberM
  • 3M. MitrovićD
  • 26M. DardanM
  • 19W. SahliM
  • 32L. SavatovićG
  • 25P. SmiljanicM
  • 29J. VasiljM
Coach: N. Jelavić
Rudes 3-4-2-1
  • 95L. RogićG
  • 42M. ZebićD
  • 5M. StolnikD
  • 29S. BralićD
  • 2B. UnušićM
  • 24I. ĐorićM
  • 37N. SkokoM
  • 27Felipe CurcioM
  • 10V. SeitzM
  • 11J. PoldrugačM
  • 78J. FernándesF
Substitutes
  • 28XaviM
  • 4V. CeljakD
  • 88S. El HaddadM
  • 1Filip HoljevacG
  • 7L. IlečićF
  • 14T. KolegaF
  • 34K. LovrićF
  • 8Luka PopovicM
  • 19Cherno SahoF
Coach: A. Peternac

Form going into NK Lokomotiva Zagreb vs Rudes

NK Lokomotiva Zagreb

HNL

  • L1-3NK Osijek1 November 2026
  • D0-0away to HNK Gorica24 October 2026
  • W2-0Istra 196117 October 2026
  • L0-1NK Varazdin11 October 2026

Rudes

HNL

  • W1-0Dinamo Zagreb31 October 2026
  • W1-0away to NK Osijek25 October 2026
  • L1-2HNK Rijeka16 October 2026
  • W2-1away to HNK Gorica9 October 2026

What these results say

  • NK Lokomotiva Zagreb failed to win 3 of these 4 matches.
  • 3 of these 4 matches for NK Lokomotiva Zagreb had two goals or fewer.
  • Rudes scored in every one of these 4 matches.
  • Rudes won 3 of these 4 matches.

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

HNL table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
9NK Lokomotiva Zagreb133281421-711
8Rudes135171627-1116

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: NK Lokomotiva Zagreb vs Rudes

  • 21 August 2026Rudes 4–1 NK Lokomotiva ZagrebHNL
  • 18 May 2024Rudes 3–3 NK Lokomotiva ZagrebHNL
  • 9 March 2024NK Lokomotiva Zagreb 3–0 RudesHNL
  • 3 December 2023Rudes 0–0 NK Lokomotiva ZagrebHNL
  • 15 September 2023NK Lokomotiva Zagreb 1–0 RudesHNL
  • 20 April 2019Rudes 1–2 NK Lokomotiva ZagrebHNL

Leading scorers: NK Lokomotiva Zagreb and Rudes

NK Lokomotiva Zagreb

GoalsAssists

  • D. Vuković32

Rudes

No player in HNL's leading scorers — 16 league goals as a side.

Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.

The result against the call

Rudes won 1–0 at NK Lokomotiva Zagreb. The model had leaned towards a win for NK Lokomotiva Zagreb at 46% and given a win for Rudes 27%. At that figure it expects the outcome about once in every 4 matches like this one. The goal: Saad El Haddad (penalty) 79' for Rudes. On expected goals it finished 0.79–1.13.

What this result changed

Before kick-off the season simulation gave NK Lokomotiva Zagreb a 11.4% chance to finish in the bottom one: 7.6% after a win, 13.1% after a draw, 16.4% after a defeat. The defeat was the worst of those results for them, and left the figure at 16.4%, 5 points higher than before the match.

For Rudes the question was the chance to finish in the bottom one, 13.4% going in: 7.3% after a win, 12.8% after a draw, 16.2% after a defeat. The win was the best of those results for them, and left the figure at 7.3%, 6.1 points lower than before the match.

Read from our HNL season simulation as it stood before this match (10,000 runs), counting this result alone. Every result since then has moved the table again, so today's figure is on the competition page.

How the call on NK Lokomotiva Zagreb v Rudes has moved

First published on 24 Oct at 54% / 24% / 22% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 4 updates, it read 46% / 27% / 27%: the biggest move is NK Lokomotiva Zagreb's chance of winning, down 8 points.

  1. NK Lokomotiva Zagreb win46%▼ −8
  2. Draw27%▲ +3
  3. Rudes win27%▲ +5

Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.