HNK Gorica vs NK Lokomotiva Zagreb HNL prediction & result
Final score: HNK Gorica 0-0 NK Lokomotiva Zagreb.
Before kick-off the model made it 37% HNK Gorica, 32% draw, 31% NK Lokomotiva Zagreb — fair odds of 2.70, 3.13 and 3.23.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0.
The model got this one wrong.
Published · updated
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Has the model earned this number?
HNK Gorica at 37%: of 4,828 settled 30–40% forecasts, 33.4% came in (average 33.7%). It can be read literally. The full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — HNK Gorica vs NK Lokomotiva Zagreb
Goals against chances
Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.
Line-ups
- 1R. JosipovićG
- 2F. BrautD
- 32J. FilipovićD
- 15D. StevanovićD
- 5Gonçalo CostaD
- 66Juraj FriganM
- 6T. LacouxM
- 25B. BogojevićM
- 24D. PavičićM
- 8J. PranjićM
- 50A. ErcegF
- 10F. BrodićF
- 34I. CvijanovićD
- 18B. KardumF
- 26Keenan Nino CaroleF
- 36Ante KaveljM
- 71D. MatijašG
- 9P. MijićF
- 21H. MoustaphaD
- 45S. PerićD
- 12J. PosavecG
- 13F. KaračićD
- 2J. GurlicaD
- 4T. TriantafyllouD
- 20K. ČabrajićD
- 8I. KatićM
- 6F. FetaiM
- 7D. VukovićM
- 14M. LorberM
- 9L. BelcarM
- 11Lovre KulušićF
- 32L. SavatovićG
- 24M. MarićF
- 26M. DardanM
- 25P. SmiljanicM
- 16KaykeF
- 10M. SubotićM
- 15Dominik ThaqiF
- 29J. VasiljM
- 5M. ČabrajaD
Form going into HNK Gorica vs NK Lokomotiva Zagreb
HNK Gorica
HNL
- D1-1away to NK Osijek17 October 2026
- L1-2Rudes9 October 2026
NK Lokomotiva Zagreb
HNL
- W2-0Istra 196117 October 2026
- L0-1NK Varazdin11 October 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
HNL table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 | HNK Gorica | 13 | 1 | 4 | 8 | 10 | 25 | -15 | 7 |
| 9 | NK Lokomotiva Zagreb | 13 | 3 | 2 | 8 | 14 | 21 | -7 | 11 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: HNK Gorica vs NK Lokomotiva Zagreb
- 8 August 2026NK Lokomotiva Zagreb 3–1 HNK GoricaHNL
- 17 April 2026HNK Gorica 0–2 NK Lokomotiva ZagrebHNL
- 6 February 2026NK Lokomotiva Zagreb 3–0 HNK GoricaHNL
- 3 November 2025HNK Gorica 4–1 NK Lokomotiva ZagrebHNL
- 16 August 2025NK Lokomotiva Zagreb 1–3 HNK GoricaHNL
- 24 May 2025HNK Gorica 0–3 NK Lokomotiva ZagrebHNL
Leading scorers: HNK Gorica and NK Lokomotiva Zagreb
HNK Gorica
GoalsAssists
- B. Bogojević40
NK Lokomotiva Zagreb
GoalsAssists
- D. Vuković32
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
The result against the call
HNK Gorica and NK Lokomotiva Zagreb drew 0–0. The model had leaned towards a win for HNK Gorica at 37% and given a draw 32%. At that figure it expects the outcome about once in every 3 matches like this one. On expected goals it finished 1.39–0.86.
What this result changed
Before kick-off the season simulation gave HNK Gorica a 27.4% chance to finish in the bottom one: 21.8% after a win, 28.6% after a draw, 32.4% after a defeat. The draw was the middle one of the three, and left the figure at 28.6%, 1.2 points higher than before the match.
For NK Lokomotiva Zagreb the question was the chance to finish in the top four, 8.1% going in: 10.5% after a win, 7.5% after a draw, 6.2% after a defeat. The draw was the middle one of the three, and left the figure at 7.5%, 0.6 points lower than before the match.
Read from our HNL season simulation as it stood before this match (10,000 runs), counting this result alone. Every result since then has moved the table again, so today's figure is on the competition page.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.