24 October 2026, 16:00 UTC

NK Varazdin vs NK Slaven Belupo HNL prediction & result

Stadion Varteks
Referee: Ante Terzić, Croatia
Full time1 – 2

Final score: NK Varazdin 1-2 NK Slaven Belupo.

Before kick-off the model made it 56% NK Varazdin, 26% draw, 18% NK Slaven Belupo — fair odds of 1.79, 3.85 and 5.56.

Most likely scoreline: 1-0.

The model got this one wrong.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

NK Varazdin at 56%: of 1,648 settled 50–65% forecasts, 58.6% came in (average 55.4%). It can be read literally. The full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

NK Varazdin0%Draw7%NK Slaven Belupo93%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 3 goals, and a card each of the 1 sending-off. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

⚽Iuri Tavares
6'
37'
Silvijo Čabraja
37'
Josip Mitrović
🔁Petar Bočkajout: David Puclin
45'
Iuri Tavares
54'
63'
🔁Leon Bošnjakout: Mihail Caimacov
🔁Iuri Tavaresout: Matej Vuk
64'
🔁Luka Posinkovićout: Sven Lesjak
65'
66'
⚽Josip Mitrovićassist: Ilija Nestorovski
70'
⚽lovro banovecassist: Ilija Nestorovski
🔁Ivan Canjugaout: Valentin Akrap
71'
•luka mamic
72'
79'
Ilija Nestorovski
🔁Novak Tepsicout: Stipe Jurić
84'
90+1'
Karlo Sentic
Aleksa Latkovic
90+2'

Match stats — NK Varazdin vs NK Slaven Belupo

54%Possession46%
15Shots8
4On target3
1Corners3
1.54xG0.62

Goals against chances

NK Varazdin1 from 1.54 xGless than the chances were worth
NK Slaven Belupo2 from 0.62 xGmore than the chances were worth

Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.

Line-ups

NK Varazdin 4-2-3-1
  • 33J. SilićG
  • 30L. PosinkovicD
  • 13M. MladenovskiD
  • 16N. TepšićD
  • 20G. SikošekD
  • 28I. CanjugaM
  • 8T. DuvnjakM
  • 12P. BočkajM
  • 22L. MamićM
  • 38Iuri TavaresM
  • 10A. LatkovićF
Substitutes
  • 44M. BaraćD
  • 9S. JurićF
  • 5Sven LesjakD
  • 19L. LukanićM
  • 1R. McCrorieG
  • 21I. PosavecM
  • 6D. PuclinM
  • 14R. PunčecD
  • 7M. VukF
Coach: N. Šafarić
NK Slaven Belupo 4-2-3-1
  • 30K. SentićG
  • 18F. KrušeljD
  • 4D. KovačićD
  • 15J. MersinajD
  • 77I. UrataD
  • 22A. AdeshinaM
  • 21L. CrepuljaM
  • 8L. BanovecM
  • 24L. BošnjakM
  • 11J. MitrovićM
  • 90I. NestorovskiF
Substitutes
  • 10M. CaimacovM
  • 88D. BosakM
  • 5I. CvetkoD
  • 23A. JónssonM
  • 29Lovro LoncaricF
  • 2V. MeđimorecD
  • 45V. PapacF
  • 12M. PavliG
  • 14Losika RatshukuduF
Coach: S. Čabraja

Form going into NK Varazdin vs NK Slaven Belupo

NK Varazdin

HNL

  • L0-1away to HNK Hajduk Split18 October 2026
  • W1-0away to NK Lokomotiva Zagreb11 October 2026

NK Slaven Belupo

HNL

  • L1-5Dinamo Zagreb18 October 2026
  • W4-1HNK Rijeka11 October 2026

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

HNL table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
5NK Varazdin135441714+319
7NK Slaven Belupo135171928-916

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: NK Varazdin vs NK Slaven Belupo

  • 9 August 2026NK Slaven Belupo 1–4 NK VarazdinHNL
  • 12 April 2026NK Varazdin 2–1 NK Slaven BelupoHNL
  • 31 January 2026NK Slaven Belupo 0–2 NK VarazdinHNL
  • 25 October 2025NK Varazdin 1–3 NK Slaven BelupoHNL
  • 10 August 2025NK Slaven Belupo 3–1 NK VarazdinHNL
  • 22 April 2025NK Slaven Belupo 0–1 NK VarazdinHNL

Leading scorers: NK Varazdin and NK Slaven Belupo

NK Varazdin

GoalsAssists

  • L. Mamić60
  • I. Canjuga33

NK Slaven Belupo

GoalsAssists

  • I. Nestorovski92
  • J. Mitrović32
  • L. Banovec32

Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.

The result against the call

NK Slaven Belupo won 2–1 at NK Varazdin. The model had leaned towards a win for NK Varazdin at 56% and given a win for NK Slaven Belupo 18%. At that figure it expects the outcome about once in every 6 matches like this one. The goals: Iuri Tavares 6' for NK Varazdin, Josip Mitrović 66' for NK Slaven Belupo, lovro banovec 70' for NK Slaven Belupo. Sent off: Ilija Nestorovski (NK Slaven Belupo) 79'. On expected goals it finished 1.54–0.62.

What this result changed

Before kick-off the season simulation gave NK Varazdin a 73.3% chance to finish in the top four: 76.8% after a win, 69.3% after a draw, 66.6% after a defeat. The defeat was the worst of those results for them, and left the figure at 66.6%, 6.7 points lower than before the match.

For NK Slaven Belupo the question was the chance to finish in the bottom one, 12.4% going in: 8.4% after a win, 12.3% after a draw, 13.2% after a defeat. The win was the best of those results for them, and left the figure at 8.4%, 4 points lower than before the match.

Read from our HNL season simulation as it stood before this match (10,000 runs), counting this result alone. Every result since then has moved the table again, so today's figure is on the competition page.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.