Radnik Surdulica vs OFK Beograd Super Liga prediction & result
Final score: Radnik Surdulica 2-1 OFK Beograd.
Before kick-off the model made it 47% Radnik Surdulica, 27% draw, 26% OFK Beograd — fair odds of 2.13, 3.70 and 3.85.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0.
The model called the result correctly.
Published · updated
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Has the model earned this number?
Radnik Surdulica at 47%: of 2,957 settled 40–50% forecasts, 46.1% came in (average 43.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 3 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Radnik Surdulica vs OFK Beograd
Goals against chances
Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.
Line-ups
- 99S. RandjelovicG
- 22U. LazićD
- 6David StojanovićD
- 5M. PopovićD
- 2Tijan SohnaD
- 28A. PejovićM
- 29O. ShukurovM
- 47Emmanuel QuarshieM
- 30M. NovakovićM
- 27M. SpasićM
- 9V. BogdanovićF
- 34Nikša BlagojevićD
- 20L. JovanovicF
- 11Tom KljunF
- 25Teo LakićF
- 49D. MarkočevićF
- 23Lazar RadojicicG
- 7D. StojanovićM
- 45Rafael SilvaD
- 18F. ŽunićD
- 31Vuk DraškićG
- 47S. StojkoviÄD
- 45A. VukičevićD
- 15N. MarašD
- 2S. DespotovskiD
- 20J. ŠljivićM
- 6S. PeñaM
- 3E. AddoM
- 18H. TouréM
- 11T. De BarrF
- 42Y. SilueF
- 71L. ZarićM
- 91Aleksa VasilićM
- 97N. StojišićG
- 24U. StojanovićD
- 23M. RodićD
- 10S. MarkovićM
- 16L. IvanovicD
- 9Ethan HoardF
- 26M. FallD
Form going into Radnik Surdulica vs OFK Beograd
Radnik Surdulica
Super Liga
- W1-0away to Mladost Lucani2 November 2026
- L0-1away to Radnicki 192323 October 2026
- W3-0Radnicki NIS16 October 2026
- L0-1away to IMT Novi Beograd10 October 2026
OFK Beograd
Super Liga
- L0-2Vojvodina1 November 2026
- L0-1FK Crvena Zvezda25 October 2026
- D1-1away to Macva17 October 2026
- D0-0away to Mladost Lucani12 October 2026
What these results say
- 3 of these 4 matches for Radnik Surdulica had two goals or fewer.
- OFK Beograd did not win any of these 4 matches.
- Every one of these 4 matches for OFK Beograd had two goals or fewer.
- OFK Beograd failed to score in 3 of these 4 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
Serbia Super Liga table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | Radnik Surdulica | 15 | 6 | 5 | 4 | 20 | 18 | +2 | 23 |
| 12 | OFK Beograd | 15 | 2 | 5 | 8 | 15 | 27 | -12 | 11 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Radnik Surdulica vs OFK Beograd
- 25 July 2026OFK Beograd 0–0 Radnik SurdulicaSuper Liga
- 26 April 2026OFK Beograd 1–1 Radnik SurdulicaSuper Liga
- 9 April 2026OFK Beograd 0–0 Radnik SurdulicaSuper Liga
- 8 November 2025Radnik Surdulica 1–0 OFK BeogradSuper Liga
Leading scorers: Radnik Surdulica and OFK Beograd
Radnik Surdulica
GoalsAssists
- V. Bogdanović61
- M. Novaković33
OFK Beograd
GoalsAssists
- Y. Silue70
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
The result against the call
Radnik Surdulica beat OFK Beograd 2–1. The model had made a win for Radnik Surdulica its most likely outcome, at 47%, so the call held; the score it named was 1–0. The goals: Milos Spasic 43' for Radnik Surdulica, ethan hoard 86' for OFK Beograd, David Stojanovic 90+4' for Radnik Surdulica. On expected goals it finished 1.24–0.95.
What this result changed
Before kick-off the season simulation gave Radnik Surdulica a 49.2% chance to finish in the top six: 57.5% after a win, 45.0% after a draw, 36.4% after a defeat. The win was the best of those results for them, and left the figure at 57.5%, 8.3 points higher than before the match.
For OFK Beograd the question was the chance to finish in the bottom three, 30.3% going in: 20.1% after a win, 30.0% after a draw, 35.3% after a defeat. The defeat was the worst of those results for them, and left the figure at 35.3%, 5 points higher than before the match.
Read from our Super Liga season simulation as it stood before this match (10,000 runs), counting this result alone. Every result since then has moved the table again, so today's figure is on the competition page.
How the call on Radnik Surdulica v OFK Beograd has moved
First published on 24 Oct at 45% / 26% / 29% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 6 updates, it read 47% / 27% / 26%: the biggest move is OFK Beograd's chance of winning, down 3 points.
- Radnik Surdulica win47%▲ +2
- Draw27%▲ +1
- OFK Beograd win26%▼ −3
Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.