7 November 2026, 14:00 UTC

Bate Borisov vs Torpedo Zhodino Premier League prediction & result

Borisov Arena, Barysaw
Full time1 – 0

Final score: Bate Borisov 1-0 Torpedo Zhodino.

Before kick-off the model made it 34% Bate Borisov, 31% draw, 35% Torpedo Zhodino — fair odds of 2.94, 3.23 and 2.86.

Most likely scoreline: 0-1.

The model got this one wrong.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

Torpedo Zhodino at 35%: of 4,828 settled 30–40% forecasts, 33.4% came in (average 33.7%). It can be read literally. The full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

Bate Borisov97%Draw3%Torpedo Zhodino0%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 1 goal. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

🔁erick puertoout: Ivan Mikhniuk
45'
65'
Danila Zhulpa
Vladislav Varaksa
67'
78'
🔁Nikita Korzunout: Maxim Gaevoy
79'
🔁Aleksandr Frantsuzovout: Dmitriy Yusov
80'
Timofey Sharkovskiy
egor kress
82'
88'
🔁Timofey Sharkovskiyout: Vladislav Nalivayko
⚽Vladislav Varaksa (pen)
89'
🔁Kirill Kaplenkoout: Victorien Angban
90+2'
🔁Ignat Kuimovout: Marat Titov
90+2'
Ivan Mikhniuk
90+3'

Match stats — Bate Borisov vs Torpedo Zhodino

38%Possession62%
2Shots5
2On target1
3Corners7

Line-ups

Bate Borisov 4-2-3-1
  • 35A. SkopetsG
  • 88P. DubovskiyD
  • 5M. SakutaD
  • 6H. MoussakhanianD
  • 3I. KuimovD
  • 55K. KaplenkoM
  • 52E. KressM
  • 17Y. KovalevM
  • 26V. VaraksaM
  • 24V. YatskevichM
  • 37E. PuertoF
Substitutes
  • 7V. AngbanM
  • 30T. GagloevM
  • 13Y. KhramtsevichM
  • 28I. MikhnyukD
  • 51Aleksandr RyabinkinG
  • 47A. SakhonchikM
  • 16D. SokolG
  • 21M. TitovM
  • 19L. ĐorđevićF
Coach: A. Kulikov
Torpedo Zhodino 3-5-2
  • 1S. IgnatovichG
  • 3Yevhen ChagovetsD
  • 13A. ZaleskiyD
  • 96V. MelkoD
  • 68D. ZhulpaM
  • 18N. KorzunM
  • 30V. PobudeyM
  • 6K. PremudrovM
  • 10T. SharkovskiyM
  • 89A. FrantsuzovF
  • 11A. LomovitskiyF
Substitutes
  • 9G. PetrosyanF
  • 25T. YurasovG
  • 28D. YusovF
  • 15R. ZheleznyiF
  • 47V. NalivaykoF
  • 88M. MikhayrinD
  • 99M. MaslennikovG
  • 20G. MartjanovD
  • 14M. LadutkoM
Coach: Denis Karolik

Form going into Bate Borisov vs Torpedo Zhodino

Bate Borisov

Premier League

  • L0-1away to Arsenal Dzerzhinsk30 October 2026
  • L0-1Belshina24 October 2026
  • L1-2away to FC Dnepr Mogilev18 October 2026
  • L0-2Neman14 October 2026

Torpedo Zhodino

Premier League

  • W3-0Belshina1 November 2026
  • L2-4away to Slavia Mozyr25 October 2026
  • W1-0Naftan19 October 2026
  • L0-2away to ML Vitebsk15 October 2026

What these results say

  • Bate Borisov did not win any of these 4 matches.
  • Bate Borisov conceded in every one of these 4 matches.
  • Bate Borisov failed to score in 3 of these 4 matches.
  • Torpedo Zhodino scored in 3 of these 4 matches.

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

Belarus Premier League table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
14Bate Borisov2859142034-1424
8Torpedo Zhodino28106123536-136

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: Bate Borisov vs Torpedo Zhodino

  • 27 June 2026Torpedo Zhodino 3–0 Bate BorisovPremier League
  • 14 March 2026Bate Borisov 2–0 Torpedo ZhodinoCoppa
  • 7 March 2026Torpedo Zhodino 1–0 Bate BorisovCoppa
  • 25 October 2025Bate Borisov 1–0 Torpedo ZhodinoPremier League
  • 31 May 2025Torpedo Zhodino 3–2 Bate BorisovPremier League
  • 25 August 2024Bate Borisov 1–2 Torpedo ZhodinoPremier League

The result against the call

Bate Borisov beat Torpedo Zhodino 1–0. The model had leaned towards a win for Torpedo Zhodino at 35% and given a win for Bate Borisov 34%. The goal: Vladislav Varaksa (penalty) 89' for Bate Borisov.

What this result changed

Before kick-off the season simulation gave Bate Borisov a 83.4% chance to finish in the bottom three: 66.5% after a win, 90.7% after a draw, 95.1% after a defeat. The win was the best of those results for them, and left the figure at 66.5%, 16.9 points lower than before the match.

Read from our Premier League season simulation as it stood before this match (10,000 runs), counting this result alone. Every result since then has moved the table again, so today's figure is on the competition page.

How the call on Bate Borisov v Torpedo Zhodino has moved

First published on 24 Oct at 38% / 30% / 32% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 4 updates, it read 34% / 31% / 35%: the biggest move is Bate Borisov's chance of winning, down 4 points.

  1. Bate Borisov win34%▼ −4
  2. Draw31%▲ +1
  3. Torpedo Zhodino win35%▲ +3

Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.