Plzen vs Levski Sofia UEFA Europa League prediction & result
Final score: Plzen 1-2 Levski Sofia.
Before kick-off the model made it 48% Plzen, 25% draw, 27% Levski Sofia — fair odds of 2.08, 4.00 and 3.70.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
The model got this one wrong.
Published · updated
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Has the model earned this number?
Plzen at 48%: of 2,957 settled 40–50% forecasts, 46.1% came in (average 43.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 3 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Plzen vs Levski Sofia
Goals against chances
Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.
Line-ups
- 44F. WiegeleG
- 2T. PališčákD
- 40S. DwehD
- 3D. VavroD
- 19C. SouaréD
- 17P. HrošovskýM
- 6L. ČervM
- 99A. MemićM
- 18T. LadraM
- 9D. VišinskýF
- 25C. KabongoF
- 11M. VydraF
- 14Merchas DoskiD
- 23B. FaalF
- 29A. GabrielD
- 7S. LawalF
- 20Jiří Maxim PanošM
- 36S. PirgiÄM
- 98F. PrebslD
- 12A. SojkaM
- 92S. VutsovG
- 21AldairD
- 50K. DimitrovD
- 4C. MakounD
- 3MaiconD
- 8M. GrujićM
- 19E. El MoubarikM
- 22M. SoulaM
- 35SerginhoM
- 17Everton BalaM
- 7ReinaldoF
- 28S. StoyanchovF
- 31N. SerafimovD
- 11A. Oko-FlexF
- 78M. LukovG
- 27David KussoF
- 2Hevertton SantosD
- 20Álex CentellesD
- 9J. PereaF
- 1O. VladimirovG
Form going into Plzen vs Levski Sofia
Plzen
UEFA Europa League
- L1-2away to Ferencvarosi TC15 October 2026
- L0-3Union St. Gilloise17 September 2026
Levski Sofia
UEFA Europa League
- D1-1away to NEC Nijmegen15 October 2026
- L0-1Red Bull Salzburg17 September 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
UEFA Europa League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30 | Plzen | 4 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 3 | 7 | -4 | 3 |
| 10 | Levski Sofia | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 3 | +1 | 7 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
The result against the call
Levski Sofia won 2–1 at Plzen. The model had leaned towards a win for Plzen at 48% and given a win for Levski Sofia 27%. At that figure it expects the outcome about once in every 4 matches like this one. The goals: Francisco Everton Mota de Castro 44' for Levski Sofia, Christopher Kabongo 62' for Plzen, Reinaldo Nascimento Satorno 65' for Levski Sofia. On expected goals it finished 1.09–1.06.
How the call on Plzen v Levski Sofia has moved
First published on 8 Oct at 46% / 26% / 28% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 3 updates, it read 48% / 25% / 27%: the biggest move is Plzen's chance of winning, up 2 points.
- Plzen win48%▲ +2
- Draw25%▼ −1
- Levski Sofia win27%▼ −1
Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent matches in our records (any competition, kept since July 2026) before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.