17 October 2026, 11:30 UTC

Fleetwood Town vs Rotherham League Two prediction & result

Highbury Stadium, Fleetwood
Full time2 – 0

Final score: Fleetwood Town 2-0 Rotherham.

Before kick-off the model made it 38% Fleetwood Town, 30% draw, 32% Rotherham — fair odds of 2.63, 3.33 and 3.13.

Most likely scoreline: 1-0.

The model called the result correctly.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

Fleetwood Town at 38%: of 4,828 settled 30–40% forecasts, 33.4% came in (average 33.7%). It can be read literally. The full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

Fleetwood Town99%Draw1%Rotherham0%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 2 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

38'
brandon cover
⚽Shaun Rooney
46'
53'
🔁Sonny Aljofreeout: Aaron Nemane
53'
🔁Josh Austerfieldout: kian spence
54'
🔁Tom Bradshawout: K. Lolas
54'
🔁brandon coverout: Jayce Fitzgerald
62'
H. Douglas
🔁Ched Evansout: Will davies
65'
Mark Helm
65'
Ronan Coughlan
66'
🔁Adam Murphyout: Crispin McLean
77'
⚽Ronan Coughlanassist: Crispin McLean
80'
🔁Mark Helmout: Conor Haughey
85'
🔁Ronan Coughlanout: R. Cirino
85'
89'
K. Lolas
Jay Lynch
89'
90+1'
Dominic Iorfa
Lewis McCann
90+1'

Match stats — Fleetwood Town vs Rotherham

54%Possession46%
15Shots8
5On target0
9Corners6
1.67xG1.05

Goals against chances

Fleetwood Town2 from 1.67 xGabout what the chances were worth
Rotherham0 from 1.05 xGless than the chances were worth

Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.

Line-ups

Fleetwood Town 3-1-4-2
  • 1J. LynchG
  • 26S. RooneyD
  • 6R. BennettD
  • 5F. PotterD
  • 4H. NealM
  • 14L. McCannM
  • 15A. MurphyM
  • 10M. HelmM
  • 24Jake Thomas BattyM
  • 17C. EvansF
  • 19R. CoughlanF
Substitutes
  • 9W. DaviesF
  • 20A. Loupalo-BiF
  • 22J. PradicG
  • 28J. RobertsonM
  • 29R. CirinoD
  • 16Conor HaugheyD
  • 27C. McLeanM
Coach: M. Lawlor
Rotherham 3-4-1-2
  • 13J. EyestoneG
  • 27D. IorfaD
  • 14Sonny AljofreeD
  • 26H. DouglasD
  • 12D. HallM
  • 28Brandon Ashley CoverM
  • 22Jamie JellisM
  • 24J. BuyabuM
  • 4J. AusterfieldM
  • 9T. BradshawF
  • 10P. MullinF
Substitutes
  • 8K. SpenceM
  • 2J. RaffertyD
  • 5K. NgwenyaD
  • 23A. NemaneF
  • 20K. LolasM
  • 15Jayce FitzgeraldM
  • 1T. CannG
Coach: A. Bruce

Form going into Fleetwood Town vs Rotherham

Fleetwood Town

All competitions we cover

  • D1-1Walsall10 October 2026
  • L0-1away to Salford City3 October 2026
  • L1-2Rochdale26 September 2026

Rotherham

League Two

  • L1-4Gillingham10 October 2026

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

League Two table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
11Fleetwood Town155551918+120
23Rotherham142661825-712

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: Fleetwood Town vs Rotherham

  • 27 August 2024Fleetwood Town 2–1 RotherhamLeague Cup
  • 7 July 2022Rotherham 2–0 Fleetwood TownFriendlies Clubs
  • 7 July 2022Fleetwood Town 0–2 RotherhamFriendlies Clubs
  • 15 January 2022Fleetwood Town 1–0 RotherhamLeague One
  • 11 September 2021Rotherham 2–4 Fleetwood TownLeague One

Leading scorers: Fleetwood Town and Rotherham

Fleetwood Town

GoalsAssists

  • R. Coughlan51

Rotherham

GoalsAssists

  • P. Mullin80

Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.

The result against the call

Fleetwood Town beat Rotherham 2–0. The model had made a win for Fleetwood Town its most likely outcome, at 38%, so the call held; the score it named was 1–0. The goals: Shaun Rooney 46' for Fleetwood Town, Ronan Coughlan 80' for Fleetwood Town. On expected goals it finished 1.67–1.05.

What this result changed

Before kick-off the season simulation gave Fleetwood Town a 10.2% chance to finish in the bottom three: 7.2% after a win, 10.7% after a draw, 12.5% after a defeat. The win was the best of those results for them, and left the figure at 7.2%, 3 points lower than before the match.

For Rotherham the question was the chance to finish in the bottom three, 13.4% going in: 10.0% after a win, 12.3% after a draw, 15.8% after a defeat. The defeat was the worst of those results for them, and left the figure at 15.8%, 2.4 points higher than before the match.

Read from our League Two season simulation as it stood before this match (10,000 runs), counting this result alone. Every result since then has moved the table again, so today's figure is on the competition page.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.