17 October 2026, 14:00 UTC

Grimsby vs Northampton League Two prediction & result

Blundell Park, Cleethorpes
Full time0 – 2

Final score: Grimsby 0-2 Northampton.

Before kick-off the model made it 47% Grimsby, 27% draw, 26% Northampton — fair odds of 2.13, 3.70 and 3.85.

Most likely scoreline: 1-0.

The model got this one wrong.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

Grimsby at 47%: of 2,957 settled 40–50% forecasts, 46.1% came in (average 43.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

Grimsby0%Draw1%Northampton99%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 2 goals, and a card each of the 1 sending-off. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

Douglas Tharme
28'
34'
⚽M. Warhurstassist: Lee Evans
Charles Vernam
42'
🔁Douglas Tharmeout: Joe Foulkes
49'
54'
josh powell
57'
🔁Joe O'Brien Whitmarshout: Elliott List
58'
⚽Jon Guthrieassist: Elliott Moore
Edon Pruti
61'
🔁Charles Vernamout: Finn Cartwright
66'
Jamie Walker
72'
74'
Jon Guthrie
David Artell
75'
🔁Iwan Morganout: Andy Cook
78'
🔁Justin Ikechukwu Obiora Amaluzorout: Sonny Finch
78'
🔁Jamie Walkerout: Cian Doyle
78'
80'
🔁M. Warhurstout: Sam Hoskins
80'
🔁josh powellout: James Maxwell
90+1'
🔁Janoi Donacienout: Max Dyche

Match stats — Grimsby vs Northampton

52%Possession48%
13Shots10
3On target6
3Corners7
2.84xG1.66

Goals against chances

Grimsby0 from 2.84 xGless than the chances were worth
Northampton2 from 1.66 xGabout what the chances were worth

Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.

Line-ups

Grimsby 4-1-4-1
  • 31C. PymG
  • 5H. RodgersD
  • 2M. KacurriD
  • 24D. TharmeD
  • 26E. PrutiD
  • 15G. TuriM
  • 14J. AmaluzorM
  • 4K. GreenM
  • 7J. WalkerM
  • 30C. VernamM
  • 9Iwan MorganF
Substitutes
  • 1H. CartwrightG
  • 39A. CookF
  • 8Cian DoyleM
  • 10S. FinchF
  • 12J. FoulkesD
  • 11Ryley ReynoldsM
  • 28F. CartwrightM
Coach: D. Artell
Northampton 4-4-2
  • 1Z. JeacockG
  • 44J. DonacienD
  • 6E. MooreD
  • 5J. GuthrieD
  • 22Joshua Alan PowellD
  • 16J. WormleightonM
  • 24C. Lemonheigh-EvansM
  • 8L. EvansM
  • 4J. O'Brien-WhitmarshM
  • 19O. DaleF
  • 9Matthew WarhurstF
Substitutes
  • 3J. MaxwellD
  • 10E. ListF
  • 7S. HoskinsF
  • 14T. FornahM
  • 35M. DycheD
  • 31J. DadgeG
  • 26S. ChambersM
Coach: C. Hogg

Form going into Grimsby vs Northampton

Grimsby

All competitions we cover

  • L0-1away to Port Vale10 October 2026
  • L1-2Shrewsbury3 October 2026
  • L1-2away to Newport County26 September 2026

Northampton

All competitions we cover

  • D1-1away to York10 October 2026

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

League Two table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
3Grimsby156542819+923
19Northampton143651011-115

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: Grimsby vs Northampton

  • 18 February 2023Northampton 1–2 GrimsbyLeague Two
  • 6 August 2022Grimsby 1–1 NorthamptonLeague Two
  • 29 February 2020Grimsby 0–3 NorthamptonLeague Two
  • 23 November 2019Northampton 2–0 GrimsbyLeague Two
  • 16 March 2019Grimsby 0–0 NorthamptonLeague Two

The result against the call

Northampton won 2–0 at Grimsby. The model had leaned towards a win for Grimsby at 47% and given a win for Northampton 26%. At that figure it expects the outcome about once in every 4 matches like this one. The goals: M. Warhurst 34' for Northampton, Jon Guthrie 58' for Northampton. Sent off: Edon Pruti (Grimsby) 61'. On expected goals it finished 2.84–1.66.

What this result changed

Before kick-off the season simulation gave Grimsby a 24.2% chance to finish in the top four: 27.3% after a win, 22.9% after a draw, 18.6% after a defeat. The defeat was the worst of those results for them, and left the figure at 18.6%, 5.6 points lower than before the match.

For Northampton the question was the chance to finish in the bottom three, 13.8% going in: 10.0% after a win, 13.9% after a draw, 15.3% after a defeat. The win was the best of those results for them, and left the figure at 10.0%, 3.8 points lower than before the match.

Read from our League Two season simulation as it stood before this match (10,000 runs), counting this result alone. Every result since then has moved the table again, so today's figure is on the competition page.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.