28 October 2026, 19:00 UTC

Carrarese vs Arezzo Serie B prediction & result

Stadio dei Marmi, Carrara
Referee: Maco Di Loreto
Full time2 – 1

Final score: Carrarese 2-1 Arezzo.

Before kick-off the model made it 53% Carrarese, 26% draw, 21% Arezzo — fair odds of 1.89, 3.85 and 4.76.

Most likely scoreline: 1-0.

The model called the result correctly.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

Carrarese at 53%: of 1,648 settled 50–65% forecasts, 58.6% came in (average 55.4%). It can be read literally. The full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

Carrarese97%Draw3%Arezzo0%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 3 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

Jonas Rouhi
12'
22'
🔁matteo gilliout: Mauro Coppolaro
Fabio abiuso
43'
45'
Gennaro·Iaccarino
🔁Tommaso Rubinoout: G. Marconi
45'
45'
🔁Giuseppe Kevin Leoneout: Camillo Tavernelli
45'
🔁Gennaro·Iaccarinoout: Luca Chierico
63'
Shaka Mawuli Eklu
•Jonas Rouhi
64'
72'
🔁Shaka Mawuli Ekluout: Artur Ioniță
76'
🔁Leonardo Mancusoout: Pietro Cianci
77'
Pietro Cianci
🔁Jacopo Martiniout: Luka Topalovic
78'
⚽Luka Topalovicassist: Jonas Rouhi
83'
⚽Gabriele parlantiassist: Luka Topalovic
90'
🔁Jonas Rouhiout: Tommaso Macchioni
90+2'
Filippo Reale
90+3'
90+5'
⚽Emiliano Pattarello (pen)
🔁Nicolas Schiaviout: Nicolo Cudrig
90+7'
🔁Fabio abiusoout: Mattia Finotto
90+7'
G. Marconi
90+7'

Match stats — Carrarese vs Arezzo

57%Possession43%
19Shots4
3On target2
4Corners1
2.67xG0.85

Goals against chances

Carrarese2 from 2.67 xGless than the chances were worth
Arezzo1 from 0.85 xGabout what the chances were worth

Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.

Line-ups

Carrarese 3-5-2
  • 1S. PizzignaccoG
  • 13F. RuggeriD
  • 6F. OlianaD
  • 33F. RealeD
  • 77G. ParlantiM
  • 18Nicolás SchiaviM
  • 23M. BraunöderM
  • 28J. MartiniM
  • 73J. RouhiM
  • 9F. AbiusoF
  • 10T. RubinoF
Substitutes
  • 78Tommaso GuercioD
  • 8Y. KhafiM
  • 5T. MacchioniD
  • 91G. MarconiF
  • 41L. RomaniD
  • 17L. TopalovićM
  • 20Gonçalo EstevesD
  • 12G. GarofaniG
  • 32M. FinottoF
Coach: G. Pagliuca
Arezzo 4-3-3
  • 14A. NunzianteG
  • 2M. MenaD
  • 13M. GilliD
  • 67Gianmarco FerrariD
  • 32A. CagnanoD
  • 8S. MawuliM
  • 78Gennaro IaccarinoM
  • 16Mattia SalaM
  • 10E. PattarelloF
  • 11L. MancusoF
  • 7Giuseppe Kevin LeoneF
Substitutes
  • 30A. ArenaF
  • 9A. CerriF
  • 24L. ChiericoM
  • 71P. CianciF
  • 4M. CoppolaroD
  • 17A. IoniţăM
  • 33D. ManciniD
  • 99M. OlivieriF
  • 6A. RenziD
Coach: C. Bucchi

Form going into Carrarese vs Arezzo

Carrarese

Serie B

  • L1-2away to Palermo25 October 2026
  • W2-1Modena17 October 2026

Arezzo

Serie B

  • L0-3Benevento24 October 2026
  • W2-1away to Sampdoria18 October 2026

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

Serie B table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
17Carrarese11317914-510
14Arezzo11326920-1111

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: Carrarese vs Arezzo

  • 14 January 2024Carrarese 2–3 ArezzoSerie C - Girone B
  • 9 September 2023Arezzo 1–3 CarrareseSerie C - Girone B
  • 17 November 2019Carrarese 2–2 ArezzoSerie C - Girone A
  • 16 March 2019Carrarese 3–0 ArezzoSerie C - Girone A
  • 19 November 2018Arezzo 2–2 CarrareseSerie C - Girone A

The result against the call

Carrarese beat Arezzo 2–1. The model had made a win for Carrarese its most likely outcome, at 53%, so the call held; the score it named was 1–0. The goals: Luka Topalovic 83' for Carrarese, Gabriele parlanti 90' for Carrarese, Emiliano Pattarello (penalty) 90+5' for Arezzo. On expected goals it finished 2.67–0.85.

What this result changed

Before kick-off the season simulation gave Carrarese a 11.8% chance to finish in the bottom three: 9.5% after a win, 13.9% after a draw, 15.4% after a defeat. The win was the best of those results for them, and left the figure at 9.5%, 2.3 points lower than before the match.

For Arezzo the question was the chance to finish in the bottom three, 54.5% going in: 44.7% after a win, 52.5% after a draw, 58.0% after a defeat. The defeat was the worst of those results for them, and left the figure at 58.0%, 3.5 points higher than before the match.

Read from our Serie B season simulation as it stood before this match (10,000 runs), counting this result alone. Every result since then has moved the table again, so today's figure is on the competition page.

How the call on Carrarese v Arezzo has moved

First published on 14 Oct at 50% / 27% / 23% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 4 updates, it read 53% / 26% / 21%: the biggest move is Carrarese's chance of winning, up 3 points.

  1. Carrarese win53%▲ +3
  2. Draw26%▼ −1
  3. Arezzo win21%▼ −2

Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.