Olympiakos vs Aris 1. Division prediction & result
Final score: Olympiakos 1-2 Aris.
Before kick-off the model made it 45% Olympiakos, 27% draw, 28% Aris — fair odds of 2.22, 3.70 and 3.57.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
The model got this one wrong.
Published · updated
All Cypriot First Division predictions →
Has the model earned this number?
Olympiakos at 45%: of 2,957 settled 40–50% forecasts, 46.1% came in (average 43.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 3 goals, and a card each of the 1 sending-off. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Line-ups
- 2C. FrantzisD
- 1C. TalichmanidisG
- 77A. VrikkisM
- 24M. TamásD
- 80Miguel Esteves Sancho PedroM
- 23M. PechlivanisF
- 8Bruno PazD
- 26P. KynigopoulosF
- 5Eduardo KundeD
- 12Jean FelipeD
- 55Henrique GomesD
- 4A. DoumasD
- 21Constantinos christouM
- 29K. IrakleousF
- 31georgios kitsiosD
- 32M. KyriakouG
- 11A. LolisF
- 13NhaysonD
- 6Georgios OkkasD
- 10D. ProkopM
- 91M. ZadroG
- 7Anderson CorreiaD
- 27J. BadeljD
- 8C. CharalampousM
- 11R. EffagheF
- 70C. El AllachiM
- 29D. GaustadM
- 30Gustavo PajéM
- 17M. MatysikD
- 22V. NikolićM
- 19Sane mamadouD
- 88C. Fi AkambaM
- 23Bernardo FolhaM
- 21D. GalyataM
- 24G. KaluluD
- 16Oriyomi LebiF
- 5D. LelleD
- 78Denis OvsyannikovF
- 18B. SzakosD
- 1Vaná AlvesG
Cyprus 1. Division table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9 | Olympiakos | 9 | 1 | 6 | 2 | 12 | 13 | -1 | 9 |
| 7 | Aris | 9 | 4 | 3 | 2 | 13 | 13 | 0 | 15 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Olympiakos vs Aris
- 4 January 2026Olympiakos 0–0 Aris1. Division
- 15 September 2025Aris 2–0 Olympiakos1. Division
- 16 December 2022Olympiakos 0–0 Aris1. Division
- 2 September 2022Aris 5–0 Olympiakos1. Division
- 3 December 2021Aris 1–0 Olympiakos1. Division
Leading scorers: Olympiakos and Aris
Olympiakos
GoalsAssists
- Zannetos Savva22
- Jean Felipe11
Aris
GoalsAssists
- R. Effaghe40
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
The result against the call
Aris won 2–1 at Olympiakos. The model had leaned towards a win for Olympiakos at 45% and given a win for Aris 28%. At that figure it expects the outcome about once in every 4 matches like this one. The goals: junior rody effaghe 40' for Aris, Zannetos Savva 75' for Olympiakos, junior rody effaghe 90+1' for Aris. Sent off: Werton (Aris) 80'.
How the call on Olympiakos v Aris has moved
First published on 2 Oct at 42% / 28% / 30% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 3 updates, it read 45% / 27% / 28%: the biggest move is Olympiakos's chance of winning, up 3 points.
- Olympiakos win45%▲ +3
- Draw27%▼ −1
- Aris win28%▼ −2
Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.