Bayern München vs Borussia Dortmund Bundesliga prediction & result
Final score: Bayern München 2-2 Borussia Dortmund.
Before kick-off the model made it 49% Bayern München, 25% draw, 26% Borussia Dortmund — fair odds of 2.04, 4.00 and 3.85.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
The model got this one wrong.
Published
Has the model earned this number?
Bayern München at 49%: of 2,957 settled 40–50% forecasts, 46.1% came in (average 43.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 4 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Bayern München vs Borussia Dortmund
Goals against chances
Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.
Line-ups
- 40J. UrbigG
- 27K. LaimerD
- 2D. UpamecanoD
- 3Kim Min-JaeD
- 19A. DaviesD
- 6J. KimmichM
- 45A. PavlovićM
- 17M. OliseM
- 34I. SaibariM
- 7S. GnabryM
- 9H. KaneF
- 26S. UlreichG
- 4J. TahD
- 44J. StanišićD
- 42L. KarlM
- 21H. ItoD
- 11N. BrownD
- 23S. BoeyD
- 8T. BischofM
- 46T. BinderF
- 1G. KobelG
- 22Kouakou Joane GadouD
- 3W. AntonD
- 4N. SchlotterbeckD
- 14M. BeierM
- 25J. VeermanM
- 8F. NmechaM
- 24D. SvenssonM
- 7J. BellinghamM
- 17C. ChukwuemekaM
- 9S. GuirassyF
- 21Fábio SilvaF
- 20M. SabitzerM
- 26J. RyersonD
- 18E. NwaneriM
- 33A. MeyerG
- 39F. ManéD
- 19K. KaretsasM
- 40S. InacioF
- 5R. BensebaïniD
Form going into Bayern München vs Borussia Dortmund
Bayern München
Bundesliga
- W3-1away to SC Freiburg25 October 2026
- W6-1RB Leipzig17 October 2026
- D2-2away to FC Augsburg10 October 2026
Borussia Dortmund
Bundesliga
- W1-0Eintracht Frankfurt24 October 2026
- D0-0away to Union Berlin17 October 2026
- D2-2Werder Bremen9 October 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
Bundesliga table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Bayern München | 9 | 6 | 3 | 0 | 29 | 9 | +20 | 21 |
| 2 | Borussia Dortmund | 9 | 6 | 3 | 0 | 16 | 7 | +9 | 21 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Bayern München vs Borussia Dortmund
Bayern München and Borussia Dortmund have met 6 times in the records we hold, Bayern München has won 3 of them to Borussia Dortmund's 0, with 3 drawn.
The record
They drew 2–2 at Bayern München on 31 Oct 2026.
| Club | W | D | L | GF | GA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bayern München | 3 | 3 | 0 | 12 | 9 |
| Borussia Dortmund | 0 | 3 | 3 | 9 | 12 |
Between them these 6 meetings produced 21 goals, an average of 3.50 a game.
Every meeting
Every recorded meeting, newest first.
- 31 Oct 2026
BundesligaBayern München 2–2 Borussia Dortmund - 22 Aug 2026
Super CupBorussia Dortmund 1–2 Bayern München - 28 Feb 2026
BundesligaBorussia Dortmund 2–3 Bayern München - 18 Oct 2025
BundesligaBayern München 2–1 Borussia Dortmund - 12 Apr 2025
BundesligaBayern München 2–2 Borussia Dortmund - 30 Nov 2024
BundesligaBorussia Dortmund 1–1 Bayern München
How the model rates them now
On the current ratings, Bayern München's attack rates 45% above Borussia Dortmund's, and Borussia Dortmund concede 15% fewer than Bayern München. How the ratings are derived.
| Club | Attack | Defence |
|---|---|---|
| Bayern München | 1.76 | 0.68 |
| Borussia Dortmund | 1.21 | 0.58 |
Leading scorers: Bayern München and Borussia Dortmund
Bayern München
GoalsAssists
- M. Olise63
- H. Kane48
- L. Díaz41
Borussia Dortmund
GoalsAssists
- F. Nmecha40
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
The result against the call
Bayern München and Borussia Dortmund drew 2–2. The model had leaned towards a win for Bayern München at 49% and given a draw 25%. At that figure it expects the outcome about once in every 4 matches like this one. The goals: Konrad Laimer 38' for Bayern München, Serhou Guirassy 60' for Borussia Dortmund, Dayot Upamecano 66' for Bayern München, Fábio Silva 89' for Borussia Dortmund. On expected goals it finished 4.22–0.65.
What this result changed
Before kick-off the season simulation gave Bayern München a 74.1% chance to finish top of the regular season: 80.3% after a win, 73.8% after a draw, 64.1% after a defeat. The draw was the middle one of the three, and left the figure about where it was, at 73.8%.
For Borussia Dortmund the question was the chance to finish top of the regular season, 17.1% going in: 25.9% after a win, 17.1% after a draw, 11.8% after a defeat. The draw was the middle one of the three, and left the figure about where it was, at 17.1%.
Read from our Bundesliga season simulation as it stood before this match (10,000 runs), counting this result alone. Every result since then has moved the table again, so today's figure is on the competition page.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.