Bourg-en-bresse 01 vs Le Puy Foot Ligue 3 prediction & result
Final score: Bourg-en-bresse 01 1-1 Le Puy Foot.
Before kick-off the model made it 24% Bourg-en-bresse 01, 29% draw, 47% Le Puy Foot — fair odds of 4.17, 3.45 and 2.13.
Most likely scoreline: 0-1.
The model got this one wrong.
Published · updated
Has the model earned this number?
Le Puy Foot at 47%: of 2,957 settled 40–50% forecasts, 46.1% came in (average 43.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 2 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Form going into Bourg-en-bresse 01 vs Le Puy Foot
Bourg-en-bresse 01
Ligue 3
- L0-2away to La Roche VF31 October 2026
- L0-1Fleury 9117 October 2026
- L0-2away to Rouen3 October 2026
- D1-1Concarneau26 September 2026
Le Puy Foot
Ligue 3
- D2-2Caen31 October 2026
- W1-0away to Aubagne17 October 2026
- W1-0Thionville Lusitanos3 October 2026
- L1-2away to Valenciennes26 September 2026
What these results say
- Bourg-en-bresse 01 did not win any of these 4 matches.
- Bourg-en-bresse 01 conceded in every one of these 4 matches.
- Every one of these 4 matches for Bourg-en-bresse 01 had two goals or fewer.
- Le Puy Foot scored in every one of these 4 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
Ligue 3 table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 18 | Bourg-en-bresse 01 | 12 | 1 | 3 | 8 | 6 | 19 | -13 | 6 |
| 8 | Le Puy Foot | 12 | 5 | 3 | 4 | 15 | 12 | +3 | 18 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Bourg-en-bresse 01 vs Le Puy Foot
- 6 February 2026Bourg-en-bresse 01 1–0 Le Puy FootLigue 3
- 29 August 2025Le Puy Foot 1–1 Bourg-en-bresse 01Ligue 3
- 23 July 2025Le Puy Foot 1–3 Bourg-en-bresse 01Friendlies Clubs
- 14 April 2023Bourg-en-bresse 01 2–0 Le Puy FootLigue 3
- 25 November 2022Le Puy Foot 0–2 Bourg-en-bresse 01Ligue 3
- 20 July 2021Le Puy Foot 1–2 Bourg-en-bresse 01Friendlies Clubs
The result against the call
Bourg-en-bresse 01 and Le Puy Foot drew 1–1. The model had leaned towards a win for Le Puy Foot at 47% and given a draw 29%. At that figure it expects the outcome about once in every 3 matches like this one. The goals: R. Souici (penalty) 14' for Bourg-en-bresse 01, M. Faty 55' for Le Puy Foot.
What this result changed
Before kick-off the season simulation gave Bourg-en-bresse 01 a 93.8% chance to finish in the bottom three: 90.6% after a win, 94.4% after a draw, 95.1% after a defeat. The draw was the middle one of the three, and left the figure at 94.4%, 0.6 points higher than before the match.
For Le Puy Foot the question was the chance to finish in the top six, 43.9% going in: 48.9% after a win, 41.1% after a draw, 34.6% after a defeat. The draw was the middle one of the three, and left the figure at 41.1%, 2.8 points lower than before the match.
Read from our Ligue 3 season simulation as it stood before this match (10,000 runs), counting this result alone. Every result since then has moved the table again, so today's figure is on the competition page.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.