7 November 2026, 13:45 UTC

Aubagne vs Amiens Ligue 3 prediction & result

Stade de Lattre-de-Tassigny, Aubagne
Full time0 – 2

Final score: Aubagne 0-2 Amiens.

Before kick-off the model made it 21% Aubagne, 29% draw, 50% Amiens — fair odds of 4.76, 3.45 and 2.00.

Most likely scoreline: 0-1.

The model called the result correctly.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

Amiens at 50%: of 1,648 settled 50–65% forecasts, 58.6% came in (average 55.4%). It can be read literally. The full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

Aubagne0%Draw1%Amiens99%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 2 goals, and a card each of the 1 sending-off. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

28'
A. Julloux
31'
⚽A. Giacominiassist: E. Julien
M. Nehari
45'
45+1'
Y. Pandor
45+1'
K. Mbala
46'
🔁Y. Rafiiout: A. Chabane
🔁M. Nehariout: A. Oudjani
46'
A. Bellebrahim
52'
61'
🔁E. Julienout: M. Colin
72'
🔁D. Sinateout: T. Monconduit
72'
🔁A. Giacominiout: I. Ramla
🔁W. Bouazizout: A. Faiz
73'
🔁A. Tafniout: B. Doukansy
73'
78'
⚽A. Jullouxassist: I. Ramla
🔁A. Faizout: B. Tafni
83'
🔁J. Porsan Clementeout: Y. Zemoura
83'
B. Doukansy
90+6'

Form going into Aubagne vs Amiens

Aubagne

Ligue 3

  • L0-4away to Versailles31 October 2026
  • L0-1Le Puy Foot17 October 2026
  • L1-3away to La Roche VF3 October 2026
  • W2-1away to Fleury 9126 September 2026

Amiens

Ligue 3

  • D1-1Thionville Lusitanos29 October 2026
  • D1-1away to Valenciennes17 October 2026
  • W3-0Villefranche3 October 2026
  • D1-1away to Quevilly26 September 2026

What these results say

  • Aubagne conceded in every one of these 4 matches.
  • Aubagne failed to win 3 of these 4 matches.
  • 3 of these 4 matches for Aubagne had three goals or more.
  • Amiens went unbeaten through these 4 matches.
  • Amiens scored in every one of these 4 matches.
  • Amiens failed to win 3 of these 4 matches.

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

Ligue 3 table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
17Aubagne12219619-137
5Amiens12552165+1120

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

The result against the call

Amiens won 2–0 at Aubagne. The model had made a win for Amiens its most likely outcome, at 50%, so the call held; the score it named was 1–0. The goals: A. Giacomini 31' for Amiens, A. Julloux 78' for Amiens. Sent off: K. Mbala (Amiens) 45+1'.

What this result changed

Before kick-off the season simulation gave Aubagne a 76.0% chance to finish in the bottom three: 66.4% after a win, 74.4% after a draw, 79.7% after a defeat. The defeat was the worst of those results for them, and left the figure at 79.7%, 3.7 points higher than before the match.

For Amiens the question was the chance to win the league, 17.8% going in: 20.4% after a win, 14.4% after a draw, 11.9% after a defeat. The win was the best of those results for them, and left the figure at 20.4%, 2.6 points higher than before the match.

Read from our Ligue 3 season simulation as it stood before this match (10,000 runs), counting this result alone. Every result since then has moved the table again, so today's figure is on the competition page.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.