18 October 2026, 13:30 UTC

Bayer Leverkusen vs SC Freiburg Bundesliga prediction & result

BayArena, Leverkusen
Referee: Florian Badstubner
Full time2 – 1

Final score: Bayer Leverkusen 2-1 SC Freiburg.

Before kick-off the model made it 50% Bayer Leverkusen, 23% draw, 27% SC Freiburg — fair odds of 2.00, 4.35 and 3.70.

Most likely scoreline: 2-1.

The model called the exact scoreline.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

Bayer Leverkusen at 50%: of 1,648 settled 50–65% forecasts, 58.6% came in (average 55.4%). It can be read literally. The full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

Bayer Leverkusen95%Draw5%SC Freiburg0%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 3 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

14'
⚽Derry Lionel Scherhantassist: Philipp Treu
⚽Ibrahim Mazaassist: Patrik Schick
19'
39'
Philipp Treu
🔁Afonso Moreiraout: Nathan Tella
59'
64'
🔁Philipp Treuout: Lukas Kübler
65'
🔁Keisuke Gotoout: Lucas Höler
🔁Moussa Diabyout: Malik Tillman
73'
⚽Patrik Schickassist: Ibrahim Maza
76'
77'
🔁Yannick Engelhardtout: Patrick Osterhage
77'
🔁Jan-Niklas Besteout: Cyriaque Irié
🔁Ibrahim Mazaout: Jonas Hofmann
84'
89'
🔁Derry Lionel Scherhantout: Vincenzo Grifo

Match stats — Bayer Leverkusen vs SC Freiburg

49%Possession51%
12Shots11
5On target2
4Corners3
1.67xG1.08

Goals against chances

Bayer Leverkusen2 from 1.67 xGabout what the chances were worth
SC Freiburg1 from 1.08 xGabout what the chances were worth

Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.

Line-ups

Bayer Leverkusen 4-2-3-1
  • 1M. FlekkenG
  • 4J. QuansahD
  • 12E. TapsobaD
  • 2F. MedinaD
  • 3Miguel GutiérrezD
  • 24Aleix GarcíaM
  • 6E. FernándezM
  • 19M. DiabyM
  • 30I. MazaM
  • 9Afonso MoreiraM
  • 14P. SchickF
Substitutes
  • 8R. AndrichM
  • 28J. BlaswichG
  • 22V. BonifaceF
  • 7J. HofmannM
  • 5L. BadéD
  • 17Lucas VázquezD
  • 15T. OermannD
  • 23N. TellaF
  • 10M. TillmanM
Coach: Carles Martínez
SC Freiburg 4-2-3-1
  • 1M. BackhausG
  • 29P. TreuD
  • 28M. GinterD
  • 3P. LienhartD
  • 33J. MakengoD
  • 8M. EggesteinM
  • 16Y. EngelhardtM
  • 19J. BesteM
  • 42K. GotoM
  • 7D. ScherhantM
  • 31I. MatanovićF
Substitutes
  • 30C. GünterD
  • 9L. HölerF
  • 22Cyriaque Kalou IriéF
  • 17L. KüblerD
  • 21F. MüllerG
  • 6P. OsterhageM
  • 37M. RosenfelderD
  • 20R. YamamotoM
  • 32V. GrifoM
Coach: J. Schuster

Form going into Bayer Leverkusen vs SC Freiburg

Bayer Leverkusen

Bundesliga

  • W4-3away to FSV Mainz 0510 October 2026

SC Freiburg

Bundesliga

  • W2-1FC Schalke 0411 October 2026

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

Bundesliga table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
5Bayer Leverkusen95132017+316
3SC Freiburg96122010+1019

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: Bayer Leverkusen vs SC Freiburg

  • 7 March 2026SC Freiburg 3–3 Bayer LeverkusenBundesliga
  • 26 October 2025Bayer Leverkusen 2–0 SC FreiburgBundesliga
  • 4 May 2025SC Freiburg 2–2 Bayer LeverkusenBundesliga
  • 21 December 2024Bayer Leverkusen 5–1 SC FreiburgBundesliga
  • 17 March 2024SC Freiburg 2–3 Bayer LeverkusenBundesliga
  • 29 October 2023Bayer Leverkusen 2–1 SC FreiburgBundesliga

The full Bayer Leverkusen vs SC Freiburg record →

Leading scorers: Bayer Leverkusen and SC Freiburg

Bayer Leverkusen

GoalsAssists

  • P. Schick82
  • I. Maza33

SC Freiburg

GoalsAssists

  • Y. Suzuki50
  • I. Matanović41

Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.

The result against the call

Bayer Leverkusen beat SC Freiburg 2–1. That was the exact score the model named before kick-off, with a win for Bayer Leverkusen at 50%. The goals: Derry Lionel Scherhant 14' for SC Freiburg, Ibrahim Maza 19' for Bayer Leverkusen, Patrik Schick 76' for Bayer Leverkusen. On expected goals it finished 1.67–1.08.

What this result changed

Before kick-off the season simulation gave Bayer Leverkusen a 75.5% chance to finish in the top four: 79.7% after a win, 73.3% after a draw, 68.8% after a defeat. The win was the best of those results for them, and left the figure at 79.7%, 4.2 points higher than before the match.

For SC Freiburg the question was the chance to finish in the top four, 51.9% going in: 59.0% after a win, 52.3% after a draw, 48.1% after a defeat. The defeat was the worst of those results for them, and left the figure at 48.1%, 3.8 points lower than before the match.

Read from our Bundesliga season simulation as it stood before this match (10,000 runs), counting this result alone. Every result since then has moved the table again, so today's figure is on the competition page.

How the call on Bayer Leverkusen v SC Freiburg has moved

First published on 4 Oct at 44% / 26% / 30% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 3 updates, it read 50% / 23% / 27%: the biggest move is Bayer Leverkusen's chance of winning, up 6 points.

  1. Bayer Leverkusen win50%▲ +6
  2. Draw23%▼ −3
  3. SC Freiburg win27%▼ −3

Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.