18 October 2026, 15:30 UTC

Borussia Mönchengladbach vs 1899 Hoffenheim Bundesliga prediction & result

Borussia-Park
Referee: Soren Storks
Full time1 – 2

Final score: Borussia Mönchengladbach 1-2 1899 Hoffenheim.

Before kick-off the model made it 36% Borussia Mönchengladbach, 24% draw, 40% 1899 Hoffenheim — fair odds of 2.78, 4.17 and 2.50.

Most likely scoreline: 1-2.

The model called the exact scoreline.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

1899 Hoffenheim at 40%: of 2,957 settled 40–50% forecasts, 46.1% came in (average 43.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

Borussia Mönchengladbach0%Draw5%1899 Hoffenheim95%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 3 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

11'
⚽Bambasé Contéassist: Alexander Prass
Kevin Diks
45'
45+1'
Fisnik Asllani
⚽Wael Mohyaassist: Florian Neuhaus
49'
🔁Isac Lidbergout: Shuto Machino
51'
54'
⚽Alexander Prassassist: Adam Hložek
🔁Florian Neuhausout: Daiki Hashioka
60'
69'
🔁Fisnik Asllaniout: Adam Daghim
78'
🔁Tim Lemperleout: Ozan Kabak
78'
🔁Adam Hložekout: Andrej Kramarić
🔁Hugo Bolinout: Robin Hack
78'
🔁Fabio Cristian Chiarodiaout: Iaia Manco Danfa
78'
🔁Zento Unoout: mathieu nguefack
79'
Shuto Machino
89'
89'
Alexander Prass
Robin Hack
89'

Match stats — Borussia Mönchengladbach vs 1899 Hoffenheim

48%Possession52%
9Shots14
3On target8
3Corners6
0.42xG1.84

Goals against chances

Borussia Mönchengladbach1 from 0.42 xGmore than the chances were worth
1899 Hoffenheim2 from 1.84 xGabout what the chances were worth

Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.

Line-ups

Borussia Mönchengladbach 4-4-2
  • 1M. NicolasG
  • 16P. SanderD
  • 4K. DiksD
  • 2F. ChiarodiaD
  • 26L. UllrichD
  • 29J. ScallyM
  • 47Z. UnoM
  • 10F. NeuhausM
  • 36W. MohyaM
  • 38H. BolinF
  • 3I. LidbergF
Substitutes
  • 39I. M. DanfaF
  • 18S. MachinoF
  • 25R. HackM
  • 34M. NguefackM
  • 22Y. KonoplyaD
  • 7K. StögerM
  • 20D. HeroldD
  • 14D. HashiokaD
  • 33D. BatzG
Coach: A. Blessin
1899 Hoffenheim 4-2-3-1
  • 1O. BaumannG
  • 34V. CoufalD
  • 2R. HranáčD
  • 28K. MachidaD
  • 39M. RotsD
  • 7L. AvdullahuM
  • 22A. PrassM
  • 20B. ContéM
  • 11F. AsllaniM
  • 10A. HložekM
  • 19T. LemperleF
Substitutes
  • 14A. DaghimF
  • 15V. GendreyD
  • 27A. KramarićF
  • 47V. LässigD
  • 32Cajetan Benjamin LenzM
  • 9Max MoerstedtF
  • 37L. PhilippG
  • 18W. BurgerM
  • 5O. KabakD
Coach: C. Ilzer

Form going into Borussia Mönchengladbach vs 1899 Hoffenheim

Borussia Mönchengladbach

Bundesliga

  • L1-2away to 1. FC Köln11 October 2026

1899 Hoffenheim

Bundesliga

  • L2-3Hamburger SV10 October 2026

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

Bundesliga table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
18Borussia Mönchengladbach91171225-134
91899 Hoffenheim94051617-112

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: Borussia Mönchengladbach vs 1899 Hoffenheim

  • 16 May 2026Borussia Mönchengladbach 4–0 1899 HoffenheimBundesliga
  • 14 January 20261899 Hoffenheim 5–1 Borussia MönchengladbachBundesliga
  • 3 May 2025Borussia Mönchengladbach 4–4 1899 HoffenheimBundesliga
  • 21 December 20241899 Hoffenheim 1–2 Borussia MönchengladbachBundesliga
  • 20 April 20241899 Hoffenheim 4–3 Borussia MönchengladbachBundesliga
  • 2 December 2023Borussia Mönchengladbach 2–1 1899 HoffenheimBundesliga

The full Borussia Mönchengladbach vs 1899 Hoffenheim record →

The result against the call

1899 Hoffenheim won 2–1 at Borussia Mönchengladbach. That was the exact score the model named before kick-off, with a win for 1899 Hoffenheim at 40%. The goals: Bambasé Conté 11' for 1899 Hoffenheim, Wael Mohya 49' for Borussia Mönchengladbach, Alexander Prass 54' for 1899 Hoffenheim. On expected goals it finished 0.42–1.84.

What this result changed

Before kick-off the season simulation gave Borussia Mönchengladbach a 63.5% chance to finish in the bottom three: 56.3% after a win, 66.2% after a draw, 69.6% after a defeat. The defeat was the worst of those results for them, and left the figure at 69.6%, 6.1 points higher than before the match.

For 1899 Hoffenheim the question was the chance to finish in the bottom three, 27.8% going in: 22.1% after a win, 28.0% after a draw, 32.6% after a defeat. The win was the best of those results for them, and left the figure at 22.1%, 5.7 points lower than before the match.

Read from our Bundesliga season simulation as it stood before this match (10,000 runs), counting this result alone. Every result since then has moved the table again, so today's figure is on the competition page.

How the call on Borussia Mönchengladbach v 1899 Hoffenheim has moved

First published on 4 Oct at 34% / 26% / 40% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 2 updates, it read 36% / 24% / 40%: the biggest move is Borussia Mönchengladbach's chance of winning, up 2 points.

  1. Borussia Mönchengladbach win36%▲ +2
  2. Draw24%▼ −2
  3. 1899 Hoffenheim win40%=

Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.