16 October 2026, 15:00 UTC

Oțelul vs Csikszereda Liga I prediction & result

Stadionul Otelul, Galati
Referee: Istvan Kovacs
Full time1 – 1

Final score: Oțelul 1-1 Csikszereda.

Before kick-off the model made it 56% Oțelul, 25% draw, 19% Csikszereda — fair odds of 1.79, 4.00 and 5.26.

Most likely scoreline: 1-0.

The model got this one wrong.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

Oțelul at 56%: of 1,648 settled 50–65% forecasts, 58.6% came in (average 55.4%). It can be read literally. The full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

Oțelul9%Draw90%Csikszereda1%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 2 goals, and a card each of the 2 sendings-off. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

⚽Rafael Britoassist: Miguel Silva
23'
45+1'
Raul Palmes Ioan
45'
🔁Márton Eppelout: Nino Kukovec
45'
🔁Veres Szilardout: artur horvath
🔁Andrezinhoout: Andrei Ciobanu
45'
52'
⚽Nino Kukovecassist: Albert Stahl
56'
•Albert Stahl
58'
Nino Kukovec
🔁Alexandru Viorel Bălănicăout: Denis Bordun
62'
🔁Teodor lunguout: João Paulino
62'
64'
🔁Albert Stahlout: Dusan Vukovic
68'
•Dusan Vukovic
69'
Dusan Vukovic
73'
Dusan Vukovic
77'
Nino Kukovec
81'
🔁Gabriel Araújo Limaout: adam czekus
🔁Dominick Zatorout: Dan Cristian Neicu
81'
86'
🔁Szabolcs Nyitraout: Luca Novelli
89'
Eduard Pap
Giannis Christopoulos
89'

Match stats — Oțelul vs Csikszereda

63%Possession37%
29Shots14
12On target6
10Corners2
2.87xG1.43

Goals against chances

Oțelul1 from 2.87 xGless than the chances were worth
Csikszereda1 from 1.43 xGabout what the chances were worth

Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.

Line-ups

Oțelul 4-2-3-1
  • 1C. Dur-BozoancăG
  • 44D. ZatorD
  • 3G. ChristopoulosD
  • 6P. IacobD
  • 28Miguel SilvaD
  • 8Rafael BritoM
  • 39T. LunguM
  • 77A. BalanicaM
  • 27Pedro NunoM
  • 10AndrézinhoM
  • 9PatrickF
Substitutes
  • 15Mehmet TitizF
  • 16D. NeicuD
  • 14Cojoc Robert AdrianM
  • 7Paulino JoaoF
  • 24D. BordunM
  • 18D. AfteneM
  • 17A. CiobanuM
  • 13M. ContraG
  • 30M. FrunzăM
Coach: Rui Duarte
Csikszereda 4-2-3-1
  • 94E. PapG
  • 22M. ÓdorD
  • 24J. HegedűsD
  • 3R. PalmeşD
  • 6L. PászkaD
  • 8S. VereșM
  • 13A. CsürösM
  • 20Gabriel Araújo LimaM
  • 90S. NyitraM
  • 77A. StahlM
  • 27M. EppelF
Substitutes
  • 55D. BotaM
  • 17Á. CzékusF
  • 11A. HorváthM
  • 10Soufiane JebariM
  • 34M. KarácsonyG
  • 7Dusan VukovicM
  • 18M. TajtiM
  • 79S. SzalayF
  • 4A. SzabóD
Coach: I. Szabó

Form going into Oțelul vs Csikszereda

Oțelul

Liga I

  • L0-1away to FCSB10 October 2026

Csikszereda

Liga I

  • L0-1Universitatea Craiova11 October 2026

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

Liga I table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
14Oțelul152761723-613
16Csikszereda151311928-196

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: Oțelul vs Csikszereda

  • 14 March 2026Oțelul 2–3 CsikszeredaLiga I
  • 26 January 2026Oțelul 3–0 CsikszeredaLiga I
  • 2 December 2025Csikszereda 1–2 OțelulCupa României
  • 1 September 2025Csikszereda 1–1 OțelulLiga I
  • 30 October 2024Csikszereda 2–1 OțelulCupa României

Leading scorers: Oțelul and Csikszereda

Oțelul

GoalsAssists

  • Patrick40

Csikszereda

GoalsAssists

  • M. Eppel50

Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.

The result against the call

Oțelul and Csikszereda drew 1–1. The model had leaned towards a win for Oțelul at 56% and given a draw 25%. At that figure it expects the outcome about once in every 4 matches like this one. The goals: Rafael Brito 23' for Oțelul, Nino Kukovec 52' for Csikszereda. Sent off: Dusan Vukovic (Csikszereda) 73', Nino Kukovec (Csikszereda) 77'. On expected goals it finished 2.87–1.43.

What this result changed

Before kick-off the season simulation gave Oțelul these chances to finish in the bottom three: 20.6% after a win, 29.2% after a draw, 35.3% after a defeat. The draw was the middle one of the three, and left the figure about where it was, at 29.2%.

Read from our Liga I season simulation as it stood before this match (10,000 runs), counting this result alone. Every result since then has moved the table again, so today's figure is on the competition page.

How the call on Oțelul v Csikszereda has moved

First published on 3 Oct at 51% / 27% / 22% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 2 updates, it read 56% / 25% / 19%: the biggest move is Oțelul's chance of winning, up 5 points.

  1. Oțelul win56%▲ +5
  2. Draw25%▼ −2
  3. Csikszereda win19%▼ −3

Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.