17 October 2026, 14:15 UTC

Petrolul Ploiesti vs Sepsi OSK Sfantu Gheorghe Liga I prediction & result

Ploiesti
Referee: Andrei Chivulete
Full time1 – 1

Final score: Petrolul Ploiesti 1-1 Sepsi OSK Sfantu Gheorghe.

Before kick-off the model made it 44% Petrolul Ploiesti, 32% draw, 24% Sepsi OSK Sfantu Gheorghe — fair odds of 2.27, 3.13 and 4.17.

Most likely scoreline: 1-0.

The model got this one wrong.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

Petrolul Ploiesti at 44%: of 2,957 settled 40–50% forecasts, 46.1% came in (average 43.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

Petrolul Ploiesti4%Draw94%Sepsi OSK Sfantu Gheorghe2%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 2 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

⚽Teixeira leoassist: Rodrigo Martins
26'
28'
Ovidiu Burca
34'
⚽Doru Andrei
43'
Boris Cmiljanić
🔁Alejandro Branout: Dele Ola
59'
60'
Nicolae Ionuț Paun
62'
🔁Boris Cmiljanićout: Moses Dramwi Mawa
mark tutu
65'
68'
🔁Nicolae Ionuț Paunout: Aboubakar Keita
73'
Robert Silaghi
🔁Luciano Gaston Vega Albornozout: David Paraschiv
74'
82'
🔁Doru Andreiout: Hunor. Batzula
82'
🔁Dimitri Oberlinout: Carl·Davordzie
83'
🔁Robert Silaghiout: Victor Daguin
🔁Sergiu Hancaout: Tiberiu Căpuşă
85'
🔁Teixeira leoout: Calal Hüseynov
85'
🔁mark tutuout: Rareș Leescu
85'

Match stats — Petrolul Ploiesti vs Sepsi OSK Sfantu Gheorghe

56%Possession44%
13Shots11
4On target4
7Corners2
1.13xG1.29

Goals against chances

Petrolul Ploiesti1 from 1.13 xGabout what the chances were worth
Sepsi OSK Sfantu Gheorghe1 from 1.29 xGabout what the chances were worth

Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.

Line-ups

Petrolul Ploiesti 4-4-2
  • 38L. ZimaG
  • 22M. ȚuțuD
  • 4P. PappD
  • 71B. MalulaD
  • 2A. DumitrescuD
  • 19Léo TeixeiraM
  • 20S. HancaM
  • 10A. BranM
  • 7Rodrigo MartinsM
  • 9D. NlunduluF
  • 8L. VegaF
Substitutes
  • 66T. CăpușăD
  • 28M. CostacheM
  • 18C. HüseynovD
  • 80M. IonițăM
  • 99O. DeleM
  • 30R. LeescuD
  • 29K. LudewigD
  • 40R. ManolacheM
  • 21David IonutM
Coach: Ricardo Sousa
Sepsi OSK Sfantu Gheorghe 4-3-3
  • 33S. GyengeG
  • 25B. OtelițăD
  • 31L. RoseD
  • 4S. KaramokoD
  • 3Fábio ViannaD
  • 6N. PăunM
  • 7R. SilaghiM
  • 27Raul CîmpeanM
  • 17D. AndreiF
  • 9B. CmiljanićF
  • 11D. OberlinF
Substitutes
  • 91D. LazarG
  • 82D. VîrtejD
  • 8A. KeitaM
  • 20Nacho HerasF
  • 19G. GhimfușM
  • 14M. MawaF
  • 21A. DobrosavleviciD
  • 88C. DavordzieF
  • 28V. DaguinM
Coach: O. Burcă

Form going into Petrolul Ploiesti vs Sepsi OSK Sfantu Gheorghe

Petrolul Ploiesti

Liga I

  • L1-3away to Farul Constanta11 October 2026

Sepsi OSK Sfantu Gheorghe

Liga I

  • L0-2Dinamo Bucuresti9 October 2026

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

Liga I table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
4Petrolul Ploiesti158342018+227
11Sepsi OSK Sfantu Gheorghe154651120-918

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: Petrolul Ploiesti vs Sepsi OSK Sfantu Gheorghe

  • 11 October 2025Sepsi OSK Sfantu Gheorghe 2–2 Petrolul PloiestiFriendlies Clubs
  • 4 April 2025Petrolul Ploiesti 2–1 Sepsi OSK Sfantu GheorgheLiga I
  • 8 March 2025Petrolul Ploiesti 1–0 Sepsi OSK Sfantu GheorgheLiga I
  • 2 November 2024Sepsi OSK Sfantu Gheorghe 1–1 Petrolul PloiestiLiga I
  • 8 March 2024Petrolul Ploiesti 1–2 Sepsi OSK Sfantu GheorgheLiga I
  • 7 December 2023Petrolul Ploiesti 2–2 Sepsi OSK Sfantu GheorgheCupa României

Leading scorers: Petrolul Ploiesti and Sepsi OSK Sfantu Gheorghe

Petrolul Ploiesti

GoalsAssists

  • A. Bran43
  • Rodrigo Martins42

Sepsi OSK Sfantu Gheorghe

No player in Liga I's leading scorers — 11 league goals as a side.

Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.

The result against the call

Petrolul Ploiesti and Sepsi OSK Sfantu Gheorghe drew 1–1. The model had leaned towards a win for Petrolul Ploiesti at 44% and given a draw 32%. At that figure it expects the outcome about once in every 3 matches like this one. The goals: Teixeira leo 26' for Petrolul Ploiesti, Doru Andrei 34' for Sepsi OSK Sfantu Gheorghe. On expected goals it finished 1.13–1.29.

What this result changed

Before kick-off the season simulation gave Petrolul Ploiesti a 12.0% chance to finish in the top four: 14.6% after a win, 9.4% after a draw, 8.1% after a defeat. The draw was the middle one of the three, and left the figure at 9.4%, 2.6 points lower than before the match.

For Sepsi OSK Sfantu Gheorghe the question was the chance to finish in the bottom three, 28.7% going in: 19.8% after a win, 26.9% after a draw, 32.7% after a defeat. The draw was the middle one of the three, and left the figure at 26.9%, 1.8 points lower than before the match.

Read from our Liga I season simulation as it stood before this match (10,000 runs), counting this result alone. Every result since then has moved the table again, so today's figure is on the competition page.

How the call on Petrolul Ploiesti v Sepsi OSK Sfantu Gheorghe has moved

First published on 3 Oct at 40% / 33% / 27% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 3 updates, it read 44% / 32% / 24%: the biggest move is Petrolul Ploiesti's chance of winning, up 4 points.

  1. Petrolul Ploiesti win44%▲ +4
  2. Draw32%▼ −1
  3. Sepsi OSK Sfantu Gheorghe win24%▼ −3

Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.