Burnley vs Wolves Championship prediction & result
Final score: Burnley 1-2 Wolves.
Before kick-off the model made it 42% Burnley, 29% draw, 29% Wolves — fair odds of 2.38, 3.45 and 3.45.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0.
The model got this one wrong.
Published · updated
All Championship predictions →
Has the model earned this number?
Burnley at 42%: of 2,957 settled 40–50% forecasts, 46.1% came in (average 43.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 3 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Burnley vs Wolves
Goals against chances
Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.
Line-ups
- 37G. CoudertG
- 2K. WalkerD
- 18H. EkdalD
- 44IgorD
- 23Lucas PiresD
- 3Max AlleyneM
- 5R. HatateM
- 19L. RamazaniM
- 29J. LaurentM
- 7J. Bruun LarsenM
- 9J. VardyF
- 27A. BrojaF
- 30L. CastellF
- 10M. EdwardsF
- 17A. HountondjiF
- 8U. RaghouberM
- 14C. RobertsD
- 12D. SatpaevF
- 22O. SonneD
- 1M. WeißG
- 1José SáG
- 38J. TchatchouaD
- 34N. DjigaD
- 24Toti GomesD
- 33G. KonanD
- 5M. MunetsiM
- 7AndréM
- 27J. BellegardeM
- 28Fer LópezM
- 19R. SaïdM
- 14S. NeaveF
- 2K. TrippierD
- 15Y. MosqueraD
- 13João VirgíniaG
- 36M. ManeF
- 37L. KrejčíD
- 8J. JamesM
- 20T. DoyleM
- 23T. ChirewaF
- 3Hugo BuenoD
Form going into Burnley vs Wolves
Burnley
All competitions we cover
- D2-2Charlton13 October 2026
- W4-0away to Watford10 October 2026
- D1-1Derby19 September 2026
- L1-3away to Swansea12 September 2026
- D1-1away to Wrexham8 September 2026
Wolves
All competitions we cover
- L1-3Bolton13 October 2026
- L0-1away to Middlesbrough10 October 2026
- W1-0West Brom20 September 2026
- W1-0away to Sheffield Utd13 September 2026
- D2-2away to Birmingham6 September 2026
What these results say
- Burnley scored in every one of these 5 matches.
- Burnley failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
- Burnley conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Wolves scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
Championship table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 22 | Burnley | 15 | 1 | 7 | 7 | 22 | 31 | -9 | 10 |
| 4 | Wolves | 15 | 8 | 4 | 3 | 26 | 18 | +8 | 28 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Burnley vs Wolves
- 24 May 2026Burnley 1–1 WolvesPremier League
- 26 October 2025Wolves 2–3 BurnleyPremier League
- 28 August 2024Wolves 2–0 BurnleyLeague Cup
- 2 April 2024Burnley 1–1 WolvesPremier League
- 5 December 2023Wolves 1–0 BurnleyPremier League
- 9 July 2022Wolves 3–0 BurnleyFriendlies Clubs
Leading scorers: Burnley and Wolves
Burnley
No player in Championship's leading scorers — 22 league goals as a side.
Wolves
GoalsAssists
- Fer López63
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
The result against the call
Wolves won 2–1 at Burnley. The model had leaned towards a win for Burnley at 42% and given a win for Wolves 29%. At that figure it expects the outcome about once in every 3 matches like this one. The goals: Jamie Vardy 20' for Burnley, Fer López 39' for Wolves, Tawanda Chirewa 72' for Wolves. On expected goals it finished 1.04–1.85.
What this result changed
Before kick-off the season simulation gave Burnley a 14.3% chance to finish in the top four: 16.4% after a win, 13.2% after a draw, 10.6% after a defeat. The defeat was the worst of those results for them, and left the figure at 10.6%, 3.7 points lower than before the match.
For Wolves the question was the chance to finish in the top four, 29.8% going in: 35.4% after a win, 28.7% after a draw, 26.0% after a defeat. The win was the best of those results for them, and left the figure at 35.4%, 5.6 points higher than before the match.
Read from our Championship season simulation as it stood before this match (10,000 runs), counting this result alone. Every result since then has moved the table again, so today's figure is on the competition page.
How the call on Burnley v Wolves has moved
First published on 2 Oct at 40% / 30% / 30% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 1 update, it read 42% / 29% / 29%: the biggest move is Burnley's chance of winning, up 2 points.
- Burnley win42%▲ +2
- Draw29%▼ −1
- Wolves win29%▼ −1
Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often Burnley's most recent league matches and Wolves's most recent matches in our records (any competition, kept since July 2026) before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.