19 October 2026, 17:00 UTC

Al Masry vs Abu Qair Semad Premier League prediction & result

Borg El Arab Stadium, Alexandria
Full time1 – 1

Final score: Al Masry 1-1 Abu Qair Semad.

Before kick-off the model made it 47% Al Masry, 30% draw, 23% Abu Qair Semad — fair odds of 2.13, 3.33 and 4.35.

Most likely scoreline: 1-0.

The model got this one wrong.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

Al Masry at 47%: of 2,957 settled 40–50% forecasts, 46.1% came in (average 43.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

Al Masry4%Draw94%Abu Qair Semad2%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 2 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

Hassan Ali
40'
🔁Hassan Aliout: Mohamed El Shamy
45'
🔁Abdellah Zianiout: Abderrahim Deghmoum
63'
64'
🔁Ahmed Khaledout: Mohamed Ashraf
64'
⚽Omar Ibrahimassist: Ramez Milad
🔁Ahmed El Armoutyout: Ali Sulieman
70'
•Ali Sulieman
74'
⚽Salah Mohsen (pen)
79'
81'
🔁Ali Husseinout: Mahmoud Abou-Gouda
81'
🔁Omar Ibrahimout: Mohamed Camara
90+3'
🔁Youssef Hamdiout: Emad Hamdi
90+3'
🔁Mostafa Abdelrehimout: Quaison Kofi Gideon
🔁Mohamed Shokryout: Amr Saadawy Salem Ismail
90+4'
90+4'
Haitham Shaaban

Match stats — Al Masry vs Abu Qair Semad

55%Possession45%
14Shots8
6On target3
5Corners3
1.82xG0.7

Goals against chances

Al Masry1 from 1.82 xGless than the chances were worth
Abu Qair Semad1 from 0.70 xGabout what the chances were worth

Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.

Line-ups

Al Masry 4-2-3-1
  • 26Mohamed El SayedG
  • 7Karim El ErakiD
  • 2B. El MohamadyD
  • 33Mostafa Al AashD
  • 3Mohamed ShokryD
  • 14Mahmoud HamadaM
  • 8Hassan AliM
  • 15Ahmed El ArmoutyM
  • 32Hussein FaisalM
  • 27A. ZianiM
  • 9Salah MohsenF
Substitutes
  • 1Essam TharwatG
  • 17Youssef El GoharyM
  • 30A. DeghmoumF
  • 22Mostafa Abou El KhairM
  • 4Yassin El MallahM
  • 11Mohamed El ShamyF
  • 13Amr El SaadawyD
  • 36Abdel Wahab NaderD
  • 21A. SuliemanF
Coach: Ahmed Samy
Abu Qair Semad 4-5-1
  • 1M. GeneshG
  • 6M. AlaaD
  • 20Ahmed AwadD
  • 4M. DabashD
  • 27Ahmed DaheshD
  • 11Mostafa RahimM
  • 14R. MiladM
  • 30Y. HamdiM
  • 15O. IbrahimM
  • 22Ahmed KhaledM
  • 29Ali HusseinF
Substitutes
  • 8E. HamdiM
  • 23F. AkemF
  • 7Mohamed AshrafM
  • 38Mohamed CamaraF
  • 24A. El GazarD
  • 26Quaison Kofi GideonM
  • 3Gaber KamelD
  • 9Mahmoud Abou GoudaF
  • 25Mohamed Zakaria ShikaG
Coach: Magdy Abdelaaty

Form going into Al Masry vs Abu Qair Semad

Al Masry

Premier League

  • D1-1away to Olympic El Qanah11 October 2026
  • L0-2Al Ittihad Alexandria15 September 2026
  • L1-2away to Petrojet7 September 2026

Abu Qair Semad

Premier League

  • L1-2Asyut Petrol13 October 2026
  • L0-2away to Al Ahly15 September 2026
  • L0-2away to Zamalek SC8 September 2026

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

Egypt Premier League table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
12Al Masry8233810-29
19Abu Qair Semad8116312-94

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: Al Masry vs Abu Qair Semad

  • 10 February 2022Abu Qair Semad 1–1 Al MasrySecond League - Group C
  • 14 October 2021Al Masry 1–0 Abu Qair SemadSecond League - Group C

Leading scorers: Al Masry and Abu Qair Semad

Al Masry

GoalsAssists

  • Salah Mohsen40

Abu Qair Semad

No player in Premier League's leading scorers — 3 league goals as a side.

Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.

The result against the call

Al Masry and Abu Qair Semad drew 1–1. The model had leaned towards a win for Al Masry at 47% and given a draw 30%. At that figure it expects the outcome about once in every 3 matches like this one. The goals: Omar Ibrahim 64' for Abu Qair Semad, Salah Mohsen (penalty) 79' for Al Masry. On expected goals it finished 1.82–0.70.

What this result changed

Before kick-off the season simulation gave Al Masry these chances to finish in the bottom three: 4.0% after a win, 9.6% after a draw, 15.9% after a defeat. The draw was the middle one of the three, and left the figure about where it was, at 9.6%.

For Abu Qair Semad the question was the chance to finish in the bottom three, 59.6% going in: 44.2% after a win, 59.4% after a draw, 67.6% after a defeat. The draw was the middle one of the three, and left the figure about where it was, at 59.4%.

Read from our Premier League season simulation as it stood before this match (10,000 runs), counting this result alone. Every result since then has moved the table again, so today's figure is on the competition page.

How the call on Al Masry v Abu Qair Semad has moved

First published on 5 Oct at 43% / 31% / 26% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 2 updates, it read 47% / 30% / 23%: the biggest move is Al Masry's chance of winning, up 4 points.

  1. Al Masry win47%▲ +4
  2. Draw30%▼ −1
  3. Abu Qair Semad win23%▼ −3

Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.