El Gouna FC vs Smouha SC Premier League prediction & result
Final score: El Gouna FC 0-2 Smouha SC.
Before kick-off the model made it 32% El Gouna FC, 37% draw, 31% Smouha SC — fair odds of 3.13, 2.70 and 3.23.
Most likely scoreline: 0-0.
The model got this one wrong.
Published · updated
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Has the model earned this number?
the draw at 37%: of 4,828 settled 30–40% forecasts, 33.4% came in (average 33.7%). It can be read literally. The full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 2 goals, and a card each of the 1 sending-off. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — El Gouna FC vs Smouha SC
Goals against chances
Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.
Line-ups
- 16Eslam RishaG
- 20Ahmed BelyaD
- 44Alpha TurayD
- 5Saber El ShimiD
- 28M. MetaweaD
- 14Nour El SayedM
- 74Ziad El ShayatM
- 22Mohamed RedaM
- 42M. EgbembaM
- 30Alaa ShaabanM
- 9Marwan MohsenF
- 70Ahmed GamalF
- 90W. Parfait TeukeuM
- 27Salah ZayedF
- 24Ali El ZahdiF
- 34M. EssamD
- 1A. MasoudG
- 4Islam Abou SlemmaM
- 13Omar El GazarD
- 32Ismail ZazaaM
- 28Ahmed MayhoubG
- 30Ali GamalD
- 24Mohamed RagabD
- 3Mohamed DesoukiD
- 21Abdel Ghani MohamedD
- 66K. MohamedM
- 11Mohamed FaroukM
- 8Samir FekriM
- 10Khaled El GhandourM
- 14Mohamed SaeedM
- 20P. BadjiF
- 1Hussein TaimourG
- 2Hesham HafezM
- 13C. NiyigenaD
- 7Amr El SisiM
- 6Abdel Rahman AmerM
- 23Fady FaridF
- 19Mohamed AdelM
- 29G. ChicodayF
- 15S. AttidjikouM
Form going into El Gouna FC vs Smouha SC
El Gouna FC
Premier League
- L1-2away to Al Ittihad Alexandria13 October 2026
- L1-2Petrojet16 September 2026
- L0-1away to Pyramids FC9 September 2026
Smouha SC
Premier League
- W1-0Ghazl El Mehalla12 October 2026
- W1-0away to El Geish14 September 2026
- L0-2Ceramica Cleopatra8 September 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
Egypt Premier League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 20 | El Gouna FC | 8 | 0 | 3 | 5 | 5 | 11 | -6 | 3 |
| 9 | Smouha SC | 8 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 5 | 5 | 0 | 11 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: El Gouna FC vs Smouha SC
- 27 October 2025Smouha SC 0–1 El Gouna FCPremier League
- 28 April 2025El Gouna FC 1–1 Smouha SCPremier League
- 11 December 2024El Gouna FC 1–0 Smouha SCLeague Cup
- 1 December 2024Smouha SC 0–0 El Gouna FCPremier League
- 17 April 2024El Gouna FC 1–0 Smouha SCPremier League
- 20 September 2023Smouha SC 1–1 El Gouna FCPremier League
Leading scorers: El Gouna FC and Smouha SC
El Gouna FC
No player in Premier League's leading scorers — 5 league goals as a side.
Smouha SC
GoalsAssists
- P. Badji21
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
The result against the call
Smouha SC won 2–0 at El Gouna FC. The model had leaned towards a draw at 37% and given a win for Smouha SC 31%. At that figure it expects the outcome about once in every 3 matches like this one. The goals: Pape Abasse Badji 82' for Smouha SC, Fady Farid 86' for Smouha SC. Sent off: Saber Ashraf El Shimi (El Gouna FC) 38'. On expected goals it finished 0.43–0.82.
What this result changed
Before kick-off the season simulation gave El Gouna FC a 40.6% chance to finish in the bottom three: 28.5% after a win, 42.7% after a draw, 49.9% after a defeat. The defeat was the worst of those results for them, and left the figure at 49.9%, 9.3 points higher than before the match.
For Smouha SC the question was the chance to finish in the bottom three, 10.3% going in: 4.7% after a win, 9.3% after a draw, 16.1% after a defeat. The win was the best of those results for them, and left the figure at 4.7%, 5.6 points lower than before the match.
Read from our Premier League season simulation as it stood before this match (10,000 runs), counting this result alone. Every result since then has moved the table again, so today's figure is on the competition page.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.