Al-Gharafa vs Esteghlal FC AFC Champions League Elite prediction & result
Final score: Al-Gharafa 1-2 Esteghlal FC.
Before kick-off the model made it 26% Al-Gharafa, 27% draw, 47% Esteghlal FC — fair odds of 3.85, 3.70 and 2.13.
Most likely scoreline: 0-1.
The model called the result correctly.
Published · updated
All AFC Champions League Elite predictions →
Has the model earned this number?
Esteghlal FC at 47%: of 2,957 settled 40–50% forecasts, 46.1% came in (average 43.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 3 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Al-Gharafa vs Esteghlal FC
Goals against chances
Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.
Line-ups
- 31A. KoneG
- 4S. SanoD
- 18Ayoub Al OuiD
- 6Dame TraoréD
- 2Abdulrahman Faiz Al RashidiM
- 13F. SassiM
- 29F. DíazM
- 23Saifeldeen Hassan FadlallaM
- 96A. OunasF
- 9F. MagriF
- 8Y. BrahimiF
- 90A. HassanF
- 7F. ComanF
- 5Mostafa EssamD
- 16Jamil FriarkhM
- 27M. HolgateD
- 24Hamad KahioutG
- 97A. Nasar MohamedF
- 1Khalifa AbabacarG
- 11Amro Abdelfatah Ali SuragD
- 76H. Far AbbasiG
- 6S. FallahD
- 33A. AghasiD
- 5R. AshurmatovD
- 2Saleh HardaniM
- 4R. CheshmiM
- 8A. RazzaghiniaM
- 27H. GoudarziM
- 10J. MasharipovF
- 11S. SaharkhizanF
- 87E. SaitmuratovF
- 80M. EslamiM
- 9M. AzadiF
- 7J. AsaniF
- 88M. AhmadiM
- 20A. KoushkiF
- 15A. ZamaniM
- 60S. HosseinifarG
- 26Mohammad Mehdi Ghayedi HeydariM
- 36Alireza MohebaliM
Form going into Al-Gharafa vs Esteghlal FC
Al-Gharafa
AFC Champions League Elite
- L1-2away to Al-Hilal15 September 2026
Esteghlal FC
AFC Champions League Elite
- W3-0Al Sadd14 September 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
AFC Champions League Elite table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 16 | Al-Gharafa | 4 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 3 | 11 | -8 | 0 |
| 3 | Esteghlal FC | 4 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 6 | 3 | +3 | 9 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Al-Gharafa vs Esteghlal FC
- 16 September 2024Esteghlal FC 3–0 Al-GharafaAFC Champions League Elite
Leading scorers: Al-Gharafa and Esteghlal FC
Al-Gharafa
No player in AFC Champions League Elite's leading scorers — 3 league goals as a side.
Esteghlal FC
GoalsAssists
- J. Asani31
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
The result against the call
Esteghlal FC won 2–1 at Al-Gharafa. The model had made a win for Esteghlal FC its most likely outcome, at 47%, so the call held; the score it named was 1–0. The goals: Jasir Asani 37' for Esteghlal FC, Ferjani Sassi 48' for Al-Gharafa, Hossein Goudarzi 60' for Esteghlal FC. On expected goals it finished 1.59–0.77.
How the call on Al-Gharafa v Esteghlal FC has moved
First published on 28 Sep at 35% / 31% / 34% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 5 updates, it read 26% / 27% / 47%: the biggest move is Esteghlal FC's chance of winning, up 13 points.
- Al-Gharafa win26%▼ −9
- Draw27%▼ −4
- Esteghlal FC win47%▲ +13
Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.