Al-Nassr vs Neftchi Fergana AFC Champions League Elite prediction & result
Final score: Al-Nassr 3-1 Neftchi Fergana.
Before kick-off the model made it 87% Al-Nassr, 9% draw, 4% Neftchi Fergana — fair odds of 1.15, 11.11 and 25.00.
Most likely scoreline: 3-0.
The model called the result correctly.
Published · updated
All AFC Champions League Elite predictions →
Has the model earned this number?
Al-Nassr at 87%: of 505 settled 65–100% forecasts, 68.3% came in (average 72.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Al-Nassr vs Neftchi Fergana
Goals against chances
Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.
Line-ups
- 24BentoG
- 12Nawaf BoushalD
- 3M. SimakanD
- 26Íñigo MartínezD
- 70Awad AmanD
- 21K. ComanM
- 20ÂngeloM
- 11Samú CostaM
- 10S. ManéM
- 79João FélixF
- 7Cristiano RonaldoF
- 8Hayder AbdulkareemM
- 4Nader Al SharariD
- 14Sami Al NajiM
- 17Abdullah Al KhaibariM
- 60Saad HaqawiF
- 9Abdullah Al HamdanF
- 23Ayman YahyaM
- 53A. Al OtaibiG
- 66Sultan Abdullah Saad Al MasG
- 1B. ErgashevG
- 52K. KouaoD
- 6Ibrokhimkhalil YuldoshevD
- 4B. CigerD
- 3MichelD
- 10J. IskanderovM
- 5I. AlibaevM
- 31Yan SasseM
- 88M. ForssF
- 20A. G'ofurovF
- 7A. IsmailovF
- 22Alisher OdilovF
- 18S. PericaF
- 77RatinhoM
- 34F. SayfiyevD
- 71B. ToshmirzaevF
- 45A. TuraevG
- 21M. UbaydullayevM
- 11A. JumayevM
- 8V. JovovićM
Form going into Al-Nassr vs Neftchi Fergana
Al-Nassr
AFC Champions League Elite
- L0-4away to Al Ain15 September 2026
Neftchi Fergana
AFC Champions League Elite
- W1-0Al Quwa Al Jawiya14 September 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
AFC Champions League Elite table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | Al-Nassr | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 9 | 7 | +2 | 6 |
| 9 | Neftchi Fergana | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 5 | 7 | -2 | 4 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Leading scorers: Al-Nassr and Neftchi Fergana
Al-Nassr
GoalsAssists
- João Félix22
Neftchi Fergana
No player in AFC Champions League Elite's leading scorers — 5 league goals as a side.
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
The result against the call
Al-Nassr beat Neftchi Fergana 3–1. The model had made a win for Al-Nassr its most likely outcome, at 87%, so the call held; the score it named was 3–0. The goals: Angelo Borges 33' for Al-Nassr, Cristiano Ronaldo 42' for Al-Nassr, Alisher Odilov 51' for Neftchi Fergana, Anvarjon Gofurov (own goal) 78' for Al-Nassr. Sent off: Ikromzhon Alibaev (Neftchi Fergana) 65'. On expected goals it finished 2.19–0.61.
How the call on Al-Nassr v Neftchi Fergana has moved
First published on 28 Sep at 76% / 15% / 9% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 3 updates, it read 87% / 9% / 4%: the biggest move is Al-Nassr's chance of winning, up 11 points.
- Al-Nassr win87%▲ +11
- Draw9%▼ −6
- Neftchi Fergana win4%▼ −5
Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.