29 August 2026, 18:30 UTC

Panetolikos vs Kalamata Super League 1 prediction & result

Panetolikos Stadium, Agrinio
Full time2 – 0

Final score: Panetolikos 2-0 Kalamata.

Before kick-off the model made it 56% Panetolikos, 21% draw, 23% Kalamata — fair odds of 1.79, 4.76 and 4.35. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.

Most likely scoreline: 2-1.

The model called the result correctly.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

It puts Panetolikos at 56% here. Across 2488 settled matches, 635 forecasts have landed in the 50–65% band; those outcomes actually happened 52.3% of the time, against an average forecast of 55.7%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.

Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

Panetolikos96%Draw4%Kalamata0%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 2 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

5'
Stefanos Stroungis
Giannis Satsias
8'
⚽G. Granathassist: C. Manrique
26'
32'
Arnór Sigurðsson
Christian Manrique
35'
45'
Djibril Diarra
57'
Julián Bonetto
🔁M. Mejiaout: Y. Badji
58'
58'
🔁J. Bonettoout: I. Chatzitheodoridis
58'
🔁D. Diarraout: M. Carreazo
62'
🔁E. Hamzaout: S. Angelis
🔁L. Kojicout: N. Erakovic
65'
76'
Ahmad Mendes Moreira
🔁G. Satsiasout: M. Nakamba
78'
🔁M. Djenepoout: K. Aleksic
78'
🔁Esteban Diegoout: S. Soumah
78'
82'
🔁A. Sigurdssonout: A. Martin
82'
🔁J. Cataldiout: A. Liatsikouras
Novica Eraković
90+3'
⚽S. Soumahassist: Y. Kucherenko
90'

Match stats — Panetolikos vs Kalamata

44%Possession56%
20Shots11
4On target3
4Corners3
2.46xG1.02

Goals against chances

Panetolikos2 from 2.46 xGabout what the chances were worth
Kalamata0 from 1.02 xGless than the chances were worth

Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.

Line-ups

Panetolikos 4-2-3-1
  • 99Y. KucherenkoG
  • 35C. MavriasD
  • 2G. GranathD
  • 49N. StajicD
  • 15C. ManriqueD
  • 18G. SatsiasM
  • 28L. Kojic
  • 22Esteban Diego
  • 10A. BassiM
  • 12M. DjenepoM
  • 9M. MejiaF
Substitutes
  • 23V. XenopoulosG
  • 1M. Pardalos
  • 4E. OlssonD
  • 65A. Apostolopoulos
  • 5A. ProdromitisD
  • 6M. NakambaM
  • 44N. ErakovicM
  • 77E. NikolaouM
  • 19A. BregouM
Coach: Giannis Anastasiou
Kalamata 4-2-3-1
  • 1I. GeliosG
  • 22P. KaloutsikidisD
  • 4S. StroungisD
  • 97RodriguesD
  • 17J. AlonsoD
  • 6D. DiarraM
  • 7J. CataldiM
  • 32J. BonettoM
  • 24E. HamzaM
  • 10A. SigurdssonM
  • 20A. Mendes MoreiraF
Substitutes
  • 40N. VasiljevicG
  • 26P. Ginis
  • 12I. ChatzitheodoridisD
  • 18P. PanagiotouD
  • 19J. BakayokoD
  • 44A. GuessandD
  • 29U. IgnjatovicD
  • 23G. PineiroM
  • 5A. MartinM
Coach: Panagiotis Christofileas

Form going into Panetolikos vs Kalamata

Panetolikos

  • W3-1Asteras Tripolis23 August 2026

Kalamata

  • L2-3Aris Thessalonikis22 August 2026

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.

Super League 1 table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
4Panetolikos430174+39
9Kalamata411267-14

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: Panetolikos vs Kalamata

  • 29 August 2026Panetolikos 2–0 KalamataSuper League 1
  • 19 August 2026Kalamata 4–2 PanetolikosCup
  • 19 October 2022Kalamata 2–2 PanetolikosCup

Leading scorers: Panetolikos and Kalamata

Panetolikos

  • G. Granath2 goals
  • K. Opoku2 goals
  • K. Aleksić1 goals

Kalamata

  • E. Hamza2 goals
  • J. Bolívar2 goals

Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.