1 November 2026, 16:15 UTC

Paris FC vs Monaco Ligue 1 prediction & result

Stade Jean Bouin, Isilemulino
Referee: Jeremy Stinat
Full time3 – 1

Final score: Paris FC 3-1 Monaco.

Before kick-off the model made it 43% Paris FC, 26% draw, 31% Monaco — fair odds of 2.33, 3.85 and 3.23.

Most likely scoreline: 2-1.

The model called the result correctly.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

Paris FC at 43%: of 2,957 settled 40–50% forecasts, 46.1% came in (average 43.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

Paris FC99%Draw1%Monaco0%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 4 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

⚽Lassine Sinayokoassist: Maxime López
38'
⚽Lassine Sinayokoassist: Moses Simon
44'
🔁Samir Cherguiout: Moustapha Mbow
45'
45'
🔁Edan Diopout: Christian Mawissa
45'
🔁Paris Brunnerout: Folarin Balogun
55'
🔁Denis Zakariaout: Takumi Minamino
64'
🔁Flavio Nazinhoout: Mathys Detourbet
65'
⚽Folarin Balogunassist: Vanderson
68'
Vanderson
🔁Moses Simonout: Rudy Matondo
73'
🔁Ilan Kebbalout: Patrick Zabi
73'
⚽Pablo Pagisassist: Lassine Sinayoko
74'
75'
🔁Sadibou Saneout: Jordan Teze
🔁Lassine Sinayokoout: Omar Sissoko
79'
Hamari Traore
85'
88'
Lamine Camara
Pablo Pagis
88'
🔁Hamari Traoreout: Emmanuel Mbemba
89'

Match stats — Paris FC vs Monaco

44%Possession56%
19Shots9
10On target2
3Corners2
2.07xG0.76

Goals against chances

Paris FC3 from 2.07 xGmore than the chances were worth
Monaco1 from 0.76 xGabout what the chances were worth

Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.

Line-ups

Paris FC 4-2-3-1
  • 1K. TrappG
  • 14H. TraoréD
  • 31S. CherguiD
  • 42D. CoppolaD
  • 6OtávioD
  • 20M. LopezM
  • 33P. Lees-MelouM
  • 10I. KebbalM
  • 7P. PagisM
  • 27M. SimonM
  • 9L. SinayokoF
Substitutes
  • 16O. NkambadioG
  • 5M. MbowD
  • 28T. De SmetD
  • 23R. MatondoM
  • 8E. ZabiM
  • 4V. MarchettiM
  • 18O. SissokoF
  • 11J. KrassoF
  • 3E. MbembaD
Coach: L. Rosenior
Monaco 4-2-3-1
  • 1L. HrádeckýG
  • 2VandersonD
  • 72Sadibou SanéD
  • 15E. DierD
  • 20Flávio NazinhoD
  • 8L. CamaraM
  • 6D. ZakariaM
  • 37E. DiopM
  • 10A. GolovinM
  • 11M. AblineM
  • 29Paris Josua BrunnerF
Substitutes
  • 9F. BalogunF
  • 19Pape CabralM
  • 49I. TouréM
  • 18T. MinaminoM
  • 28M. CoulibalyM
  • 7M. DetourbetF
  • 4J. TezeD
  • 13C. Mawissa ElebiD
  • 16P. KöhnG
Coach: Filipe Luís

Form going into Paris FC vs Monaco

Paris FC

Ligue 1

  • L1-2away to Lens24 October 2026
  • W4-3Rennes18 October 2026
  • L0-1away to Lorient10 October 2026

Monaco

Ligue 1

  • D1-1Lille25 October 2026
  • L0-1away to Lorient18 October 2026
  • D2-2Toulouse10 October 2026

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

Ligue 1 table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
3Paris FC106221710+720
7Monaco104421311+216

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: Paris FC vs Monaco

  • 10 April 2026Paris FC 4–1 MonacoLigue 1
  • 1 November 2025Monaco 0–1 Paris FCLigue 1

Leading scorers: Paris FC and Monaco

Paris FC

GoalsAssists

  • L. Sinayoko95

Monaco

GoalsAssists

  • Paris Josua Brunner40

Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.

The result against the call

Paris FC beat Monaco 3–1. The model had made a win for Paris FC its most likely outcome, at 43%, so the call held; the score it named was 2–1. The goals: Lassine Sinayoko 38' for Paris FC, Lassine Sinayoko 44' for Paris FC, Folarin Balogun 65' for Monaco, Pablo Pagis 74' for Paris FC. On expected goals it finished 2.07–0.76.

What this result changed

Before kick-off the season simulation gave Paris FC a 33.5% chance to finish in the top three: 39.6% after a win, 31.1% after a draw, 26.3% after a defeat. The win was the best of those results for them, and left the figure at 39.6%, 6.1 points higher than before the match.

For Monaco the question was the chance to finish in the top three, 44.3% going in: 53.0% after a win, 43.6% after a draw, 38.4% after a defeat. The defeat was the worst of those results for them, and left the figure at 38.4%, 5.9 points lower than before the match.

Read from our Ligue 1 season simulation as it stood before this match (10,000 runs), counting this result alone. Every result since then has moved the table again, so today's figure is on the competition page.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.