Marseille vs Toulouse Ligue 1 prediction & result
Final score: Marseille 2-0 Toulouse.
Before kick-off the model made it 54% Marseille, 22% draw, 24% Toulouse — fair odds of 1.85, 4.55 and 4.17.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
The model called the result correctly.
Published
All Ligue 1 (France) predictions →
Has the model earned this number?
Marseille at 54%: of 1,648 settled 50–65% forecasts, 58.6% came in (average 55.4%). It can be read literally. The full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 2 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Marseille vs Toulouse
Goals against chances
Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.
Line-ups
- 1J. de LangeG
- 22T. WeahD
- 4C. Egan-RileyD
- 21N. AguerdD
- 33EmersonD
- 23P. HøjbjergM
- 77A. HaritM
- 8H. AbdelliM
- 6T. NnadiM
- 14Igor PaixãoM
- 9A. GouiriF
- 92T. VermotG
- 74K. BezahafD
- 7A. GomesM
- 25U. GarciaD
- 42Nouhoum KamissokoM
- 19G. KondogbiaM
- 18B. MeitéD
- 11N. MaupayF
- 43T. MmadiF
- 16G. RestesG
- 94I. DialloD
- 3M. McKenzieD
- 2R. NicolaisenD
- 12C. TapéD
- 8T. JørgensenM
- 14N. SigurM
- 23C. CásseresM
- 15A. DønnumM
- 13J. Russell-RoweF
- 20C. TengstedtF
- 5S. KoumbassaD
- 9S. HidalgoF
- 1T. CollinG
- 37Y. AziziF
- 18M. AmougouM
- 11S. OppongF
- 31N. SchmidtM
- 6A. VossahM
- 7Julián VignoloF
Form going into Marseille vs Toulouse
Marseille
Ligue 1
- W4-3Le Havre25 October 2026
- W5-2away to Angers18 October 2026
- W2-0away to Estac Troyes11 October 2026
Toulouse
Ligue 1
- D0-0Estac Troyes25 October 2026
- W3-0away to Le Mans16 October 2026
- D2-2away to Monaco10 October 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
Ligue 1 table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | Marseille | 10 | 6 | 0 | 4 | 22 | 14 | +8 | 18 |
| 12 | Toulouse | 10 | 3 | 4 | 3 | 15 | 14 | +1 | 13 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Marseille vs Toulouse
Marseille and Toulouse have met 7 times in the records we hold, Marseille has won 4 of them to Toulouse's 0, with 3 drawn.
The record
Marseille won the last one 2–0 on 1 Nov 2026.
| Club | W | D | L | GF | GA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Marseille | 4 | 3 | 0 | 15 | 9 |
| Toulouse | 0 | 3 | 4 | 9 | 15 |
Between them these 7 meetings produced 24 goals, an average of 3.43 a game.
Every meeting
Every recorded meeting, newest first.
- 1 Nov 2026
Ligue 1Marseille 2–0 Toulouse - 7 Mar 2026
Ligue 1Toulouse 0–1 Marseille - 4 Mar 2026
Coupe de FranceMarseille 2–2 Toulouse - 29 Nov 2025
Ligue 1Marseille 2–2 Toulouse - 6 Apr 2025
Ligue 1Marseille 3–2 Toulouse - 31 Aug 2024
Ligue 1Toulouse 1–3 Marseille - 21 Apr 2024
Ligue 1Toulouse 2–2 Marseille
How the model rates them now
On the current ratings, Marseille's attack rates 35% above Toulouse's, and Marseille concede 6% fewer than Toulouse. That gives Marseille the edge at both ends. How the ratings are derived.
Leading scorers: Marseille and Toulouse
Marseille
GoalsAssists
- A. Gouiri73
- A. Harit31
Toulouse
GoalsAssists
- C. Tengstedt51
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
The result against the call
Marseille beat Toulouse 2–0. The model had made a win for Marseille its most likely outcome, at 54%, so the call held; the score it named was 2–1. The goals: Amine Harit 1' for Marseille, Amine Gouiri 25' for Marseille. On expected goals it finished 1.33–1.92.
What this result changed
Before kick-off the season simulation gave Marseille a 20.7% chance to finish in the top three: 23.5% after a win, 15.4% after a draw, 16.2% after a defeat. The win was the best of those results for them, and left the figure at 23.5%, 2.8 points higher than before the match.
Read from our Ligue 1 season simulation as it stood before this match (10,000 runs), counting this result alone. Every result since then has moved the table again, so today's figure is on the competition page.
How the call on Marseille v Toulouse has moved
First published on 18 Oct at 50% / 24% / 26% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 5 updates, it read 54% / 22% / 24%: the biggest move is Marseille's chance of winning, up 4 points.
- Marseille win54%▲ +4
- Draw22%▼ −2
- Toulouse win24%▼ −2
Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.